| Barcelona | 1.12 | 220.00 | Back | 20-Oct-09 13:48 | -220.00 | |
| Barcelona | 1.61 | 200.00 | Back | 20-Oct-09 20:23 | -200.00 | |
| Barcelona | 1.28 | 200.00 | Lay | 20-Oct-09 20:53 | 200.00 | |
| Barcelona | 1.32 | 236.67 | Lay | 20-Oct-09 20:56 | 236.67 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | -420.00 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | 436.67 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 16.67 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.38%: | 0.73 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 15.94 | |||||
Barcelona went as high as 1.61(they actually went a lot higher!). Now I couldn't resist that at 1-0 down. £200 is my normal stake for enhanced bets.
Barcelona equalised so I traded out at 1.28 and 1.32 for a grand profit of £15.94. The profit was small because of the initial bet at 1.12 but the profit made with the price drop from 1.61 to 1.28 absorbed the loss. Effectively there were 2 bets here.
1) enhanced bet back at 1.61 and lay off at 1.28 (for a profit)
2) back at 1.12 and lay off at 1.32 ( for a loss)
The flexibility in running betting gives us means we need not be static and just keep the bet if things aren't going our way!
You can see I traded out as soon , or just after, the equaliser.
Still it will go down as a losing one a day bet . And it was frustrating because Tatatiano was the only other shortlister and he came in.
| Horse Racing > Extr 20th Oct : To Be Placed | Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections |
| Selection | Odds | Stake(£) | Bid type | Placed | Profit/loss(£) | |
| Tataniano | 1.11 | 200.00 | Back | 20-Oct-09 15:04 | 22.00 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | 22.00 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | 0.00 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 22.00 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.68%: | 1.03 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 20.97 | |||||
Over 1.5 goals in the Barca game came in too.
Another enhanced bet yesterday - Inter Milan
Remember the Mourinho record at home!
| Inter | 2.24 | 200.00 | Back | 20-Oct-09 19:52 | -200.00 | |
| Inter | 1.78 | 251.69 | Lay | 20-Oct-09 20:20 | 251.69 | |
I backed Inter while losing and laid inter when they equalised as the odds reduced from 2.24 to 1.78. This also shows the importance of getting out of trading bets at the earliest opportunity because the game ended 2-2 so if you had left all profits on Inter you would have lost the bet.
I will start with the football
12pm Faroe Islands u17 v Lithuania u17 - will this mirror the senior squad's 1-0, erm, demolition of Lithuania when they last played in the Faroes? 1.46 only for the away side tells you this is going to be a tricky fixture for the away side
530pm CSKA v Man utd - 2.3 Man Utd. An early start for the Champions League and a price on Man Utd which tells you they will settle for a draw or a 1-0. A game I would probably look at from a goals perspective ( unders the option perhaps) - 1.1 under 4.5 goals and 1.29 under 3.5 goals would be my preferred option here - concern here is the league for - Man Utd have scored 2 in their last 6 games and CSKA have a solid home record and beat Besiktas 2-1 last time - no Shrek for United tonight is a massive blow and Vidic might be doubtful
Chelsea v Athl Madrid - 1.39 home. Isn't it amazing how any teams have poor league results prior to Champions League matches ( Lyon, Liverpool, Chelsea, Athletico Madrid(3-0 loss))
Chelsea look very short to me here but Madrid are in bad form. Forlan was rested at the weekend and may appear tonight. Aguero is class. Chelsea did not play badly at Villa but conceded 2 goals in set plays, and may be vulnerable in that regard.
At home this season they have been superb and I would want to see Drogba playing before I get involved
Juve v Maccaibi Haifa - unbeaten at home in 15 Champions League games, Juve came from behind at the weekend to equalise and it was amazing the tenacity they showed once a goal down ( great for enhanced betting but why do these players suddenly stop the intensity once the equaliser has arrived? )Juve make up half the national side and should take care of this lot surely? If backing Juve I would trade after they score first (hopefully) - priced up at 1/5 by Ladbrokes so they have given this to Juve already! Maccaibi have lost against Bordeaux and Bayern. This looks a good opportunity if the Juve I saw at the weekend when a goal down play with such conviction
porto 1.25 v Apoel - Apoel have performed well but there is a form line - Athletico were heavy odds on shots and only drew. Porto beat Athletico at home 2-0, so could give some optimism to Porto backers. - losing only 1-0 away to Chelsea should perhaps signal that this is no given despite Ladrokes 1/5. If taken by the 1/5 I would trade after Porto (hopefully) make the breakthrough
Real MAdrid v AC Milan 1.45 - Ac Milan's comeback at the weekend was down to the ref pretty much with a penalty equalising matters. They have been dire this season. No Ronaldo this time which is a big loss to goal backers but Real did ok at the weekend. AC just can't seem to score consistently but the question with Real is Consistency full stop. No horse face or Ronaldo a big blow from an attacking standout, but Raul , now in his early 60's (he's been around for years it seems) has been scoring and remains a big threat on the big stage.
This could be a game where the OAPs at AC Milan raise their game as a one off so they cannot really be readily dismissed in one off matches. I remain unconvinced by Leonardo as head coach - I mean what credentials does he have apart from being a teenage mutant ninja turtle? A 1-0 home loss to Zurich should have seen Leonardo back in his shell but you just can't tell which Milan will turn up.1.21 over 1.5 goals is huge for a Madrid game and also involves both sides so we have them both working for us. One mistake I made yesterday was to automatically look at the Barca odds and nothing else. If I had done my research I would have seen ,recently, a 1-0 and 0-0 in recent league games. Well no such problem for Real - 4 goals at the weekend and without Ronaldo means they can still score.
Reliance I suspect will be on having faith in Real to do the scoring this evening despite AC's 2-1 win at the weekend. But it only takes one goal for the over 1.5 goal odds to reduce dramatically.
440 Exeter yesterday saw another 8 runner jumps race so 3rd and 5th fav - I'm a legend 2nd at 7/1 and Charming Oscar 5th 11/2 -not quite the 14/1 winner of 2 days ago
200 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rasmy, 7/1 First In The Queue, Tayacoba, 8/1 Liberty Square, Yabtree, 10/1 Paydaar, 12/1 Specialising, 14/1 Moonbalej, 25/1 Calypso Star, Green Energy, 33/1 Breakheart, First Post, 66/1 Petite Mambo, 100/1 Expensive Legacy, Khazara, New York Lights.
| DIOMED VERDICT: An ordinary-looking maiden which can go to RASMY who made an encouraging debut at Newbury and will be suited by this step up in trip. |
Another price gapper and another horse who has only had one run and is short priced fav in a back end of season maiden. Hardly an enticing bet 1.48 to place
210 SOUthwell
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Burgundy Ice, 4/1 Life´s Challenge, 6/1 Mcconnell, 9/1 Silent Hero, 10/1 Sunnyside Tom, 12/1 Swiss Art, 14/1 Jack Cool, 16/1 Angel Rock, Keys Of Cyprus, Ultimate, 20/1 Betteras Bertie, Xpres Maite, 25/1 Electric Warrior, 33/1 Hilbre Court.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MCCONNELL makes plenty of appeal returned to this track. |
Simply mentioned because Godolphin are in good for and Dettori is up on Burgundy Ice 1.61 to place
230 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Youm Jamil, 7/2 Database, Fine Sight, 9/2 Spa´s Dancer, 10/1 Istidlaal, 14/1 Jazz Age, 16/1 Temple Fair, 25/1 Whistleinthewind, 33/1 Trovare, 50/1 Annelko, Madam Ruby, Zagarock, 100/1 Laid Bare, Liebelei, Steely Bird, 500/1 Set In Ice.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Much the stronger division and YOUM JAMIL can improve past Fine Sight, Spa's Dancer and Database. |
Another Godolphin maiden runner in Database now 6/4 fav 1.37 to place
235 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Flying Cross, 7/4 Akinndi, 8/1 Start The Party, 10/1 Butler, Rocket Man, 14/1 Maverick Man, 16/1 Falcon Flight, Foolish Comment, 20/1 Quest For Gold, Rain Forest, 25/1 Brazilian Beauty, 33/1 Hot Sand, Top Spin, 50/1 Cherry Creek, Killdunne, 66/1 Antonius Park, 100/1 Feis Ceoil, Leahness,
A race dominated by O'Brien/Murtagh and Oxx/Kinane 1.26 and 1.44 to place the front 2
300 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Excellent Thought, 9/2 Memorandum, Robens Rock, 13/2 Clifton Encore, 8/1 Dimaire, 12/1 Dusty Spirit, Youcanalwaysdream, 14/1 Be Grateful, 20/1 Little Weed, 50/1 Grace Jicaro, 66/1 Belle Park.
| DIOMED VERDICT: EXCELLENT THOUGHT has progressed steadily in three runs and shown more than enough to suggest she has an ordinary maiden in her. Fav has the form in the book here for this maiden 1.17 to place and confident in the place market 350 WORCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Pride Of Dulcote, 3/1 Captain Americo, 6/1 Any Currency,
3 runners now and 2 places only and a 1/ shot for the Nicholls/Walsh yard, and a gentle reminder in Ballydub's race that there is always the risk of a fall. But if Ruby does what he did on Tatatiano yesterday then this should be a breeze for the all conquering jumps yard Chasing debutant and not run since April 2009 ( like Ballydub yesterday - yikes!) 1.12 to not get beaten by 1 horse in a 3 horse race!! of course we have to assume the horse will not fall! 520 WORCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Duke Of Lucca, 3/1 Cockney Prince, 6/1 Slabsy, 7/1 Cherry Star, 10/1 Alpha Way, 14/1 Ackertac, 16/1 Dingat, 20/1 Cresswell Bubbles, 25/1 Cresswell Crusader, Under A Spell, 33/1 Cap Benat, Seven Tors, Silver Token.
Always interesting to note the rides of JP Magnier, son of the multi millionaire horse breeder. This is an expensive horse Cockney Prince, but it is also a bumper so market useful, 1.46 to place 720 Kempton BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Count Of Tuscany, 5/2 Holden Eagle, 4/1 Storming Sioux, 6/1 Bowsers Beau, 8/1 Cayman Sky, 33/1 Felicia, Miss Blueandblack, Set Em Up Mo, 50/1 Desert Fairy, Reel Man.
Only 5 horses under 33/1 should be where the placed horses come from in this maiden, but we also have some all weather debutants, and the transition can cause problems as amply demonstrated by Demonstrable the other day. 1.26 to place SHORTLIST A day full of maidens and, again, debutants in one form or another. 350 WORCESTER - this is the probability bet of the day, a 1/3 shot at 1.12 to not fall or get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race. Has Ruby on board. The spectre of obstacles is always at the back of my mind and as you saw with Barca and Ballydub, just because they're short priced does not give them some divine power to be expected to produce the goods and win with ease. 300 BATH - I am taken by the confidence already in the market for Excellent thought. Another 2 year old so these are still learning Football wise it's a tricky night. Chelsea look too short. The only shorties I am interested in would be Juve and that would be with trading in mind. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 in the MAdrid game surely has a chance of coming in. Man utd's injuries push them out to 11/10 to win. A for line through Wolfsburg - CSKA lost 3-1 to Wolfs and Man Utd beat Wolfs 2-1 ONE A DAY Must be the 350 Worcester for me. I am already on at 1.12 incase the odds reduce near the off. We cannot legislate for falls alas over the jumps, but hopefully Ruby can nurse PRide of Dulcote around on his chasing debut after a lay off since April 2009 As this is the next bet after a loser, it is perhaps not ideal to have a bet over the jumps but I am prepared to go for it. Others may want to stay out until a more solid bet which does not require hoping the horse doesn't fall. I called the football pretty well apart from the obvious Barca blunder - Debrecen were out of their depth, Lyon were a dismissively high price at Liverpool, Stuttgart and Sevilla served up over 2.5 goals. So football is an option today. Interestingly all bar the Arsenal match yesterday were over 2.5 goals |
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