St Nicholas Abbey - oh me of little faith - 1.5 to place and I let him go !
Very happy with the football (sorry the football blog did not publish yesterday for some reason) - Bayern went a goal down in a match I thought they were a little short for, but if you fancied Bayern, then enhanced bets ahoy as they ended up winning 2-1.
Ditto Olympiakos - 1-0 down and ended up winning 2-1 ( they were 1.23 to win pre match)
I got the Inter correct score of 2-1 spot on - but Spurs wrong - the key? Defoe's absence for me. As you saw with Stoke's away record of 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, they keep things tight and the onus is on the home team to score first. As you see with the 2 1-1's, Stoke can score away. Yesterday their plan went to perfection. They stopped home team scoring and went and nicked one late on.
Rangers -the odds told you it was tricky, but Rangers backers would have been ok if they traded at 1-0 up - result was 1-1.
Compare Chelsea's scoreline yesterday to that of Arsenal's against Blackburn - almost identical - 6 goals as against 5 and this is the basis behind an article I did in October's WRWM
Bordeaux won again at home and it was 1-0 for a long period . A side to keep the right side of for sure at home.
Onto today, and with the clocks changing I have an extra hour so footy first
12pm - Zakarpattyr v Shaktar 1.13 - the form team in the Europa league and 1.13 away signals goals Only match odds market available and not in running. I have availed myself of the 1.14 available which is better odds than the bookies at 1.10 so a value bet despite the short odds
1230 - Hamilton v Celtic - 1.23 - Rangers beat Hamilton 4-1 at Rangers. Celtic are away to Hamilton but this scoreline should be indicative of what Celtic should do today in an ideal world.Hamilton have lost 2, shipping 5 goals, drawn 1 and won 1 against Hibs 2-0 (they kept RAngers at bay yesterday) so a hint that they may up their games against top of the table sides at home?)
A must win for Celtic with Rangers only drawing at home yesterday. Do watch out for team news as McGeady may be injured and I rate him highly
1pm Leichtenstein v Russia under 19's 1.09 - this is the price at which Holland's under 17's faltered yesterday so caution with these non senior squad games, but I lump Leichtenstein in with Andorra, San Marino, et al as teams which should not win.
Highly illiquid market
130pm - Twente v Grongingen -1.48 - Schteve, how you say, McClaren's Twente have only dropped points with a 1-1 v PSV at home this season. Grongingen have lost to 2 of the top 3 sides at home by 2-0 so that should indicate what Twente are possible of today they sit top
1.48 indicates (like in the Rangers game yesterday) that this could be a frustrating game and anyone fancying Schteve's, how you say, team should get involved with a view to trading if Twente get the first goal. Good possible enhanced bet game this one
3pm Man City v Fulham - 1.5 - City have scored and won in all home matches this season. Fulham's away form is moderate with 2 losses, a draw and a win v Pompey expected I'm sure!)
Should be goals here I would think and this is the market I would look at as it includes both teams
415 West Ham v Arsenal 1.5 - enal have scored in all away games and their last derby, against Fulham away ,ended 1-0. Could be more of the same today? Gunners have goals in them at home, there's no doubt, their only away losses coming from the Manchester teams
Hammers home saw them lose 2-3 and 2-1 to current top 5 sides and more of he same should be expected today. Again I would err on the side of a neutral bet with goals the option
8pm - Barcelona v Zaragoza - 1.1 9 - the goals have dried up for Barca in last 2 games 1-0 win and 0-0 , and the loss in the Champions league made me suffer (although it was great for enhanced bets backers)
Zaragoza have not won away yet, and should be dealt with this evening by Barca. An added incentive for Barca is the 0-0 yesterday in the Real Madrid game - this is a superb opportunity to put 3 points on the board.
815pm Porto 1.20 - like Inter Milan and Bordeaux, another side with a great home record and they should not be opposed at home - playing the bottom side today and should be a comfortable evening. That said, bottom sides can frustrate and Academica have not lost by more than one goal away, for example against league leaders Braga they only lost 1-0
In this transition to the jumps proper, like yesterday, I would lean more towards a football bet than a horse bet, but I haven't seen the markets yet and something may stand out. There's just the niggle that strongly supported jumps horses are generally all coming back from a layoff and the obstacles are always there of course ( who would have thought Noble Alan yesterday under McCoy would be unplaced in a 4 horse race? - shows the power of one a day betting too!)
135 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Stormy Weather, 13/2 Knock Three Times, 8/1 Coeur Brule, Mehendi, 10/1 Beat The Devil, 14/1 Kind Heart, New Tricks, 20/1 Molesden Glen, 33/1 Ernies Keep, 100/1 Midnight Bay.
| DIOMED VERDICT: STORMY WEATHER could be a class or two above these provided he jumps proficiently and should be able to see off previous winner Knock Three Times. |
Read the words in italics above and this sums up place only jumps betting. A price gapper here and a jumps debutant 1.15 to place
210 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Cappa Bleu, 11/2 Little Josh, 13/2 Door Boy, 8/1 Khachaturian, 20/1 Supreme Builder.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CAPPA BLEU put up a high-class hunter chase performance in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham on his debut under rules and the sky's the limit this season. |
NEar identical profile to Noble Alan race - McCoy on a shortie but Noble did not place yesterday.Not run since my birthday (13 March) at Cheltenham and a tall reputation needs to be shown again - only one horse can really be discounted here 1.28 to place
250 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 For The Staff, 5/1 Ocean Cowboy, 8/1 Immediate Response, 12/1 Page One Two Nine, 14/1 Ravenclaw, 20/1 Cool Dude Luke, 25/1 West Ship Master, 50/1 Itmaybeyou, 66/1 Cymau Lass, Sheupshedownshe, 100/1 Dream Home.
1/3 now for the Mullins stable but Ruby not onboard. 3 miles in soft ground -will take a leap of faith to lump on 1.09 to place
330 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Conclave, 4/1 Porticcio, 6/1 On The Way Out, 7/1 Eagle´s Pass, 8/1 Judge Roy Bean, 10/1 Kahuna, 12/1 Le Marquis, 14/1 My True Romance, 16/1 On Your Way, Smack That, 20/1 Knockieran, Sinatra Bar, 25/1 Erra Go On, 33/1 Mister Castlefield, 40/1 L´Oiseau De Feu.
Ruby is in Galway with another Mullins horse Conclave 5/4 - - - -7/1 in the live market 1.45 to place
355 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bold Addition, 9/4 Cranky Corner, 5/1 Meridian City, Pure Faith, 25/1 Canal Cottage, Solway Ally, Steveys Lad, 33/1 Quick Live, 50/1 Grand Union, Knight Woodsman, Mansolias, Princess Tahoe, 100/1 Gavroche Gaugain.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Cranky Corner sets a good standard but may find the hefty penalty his undoing against the promising hurdling newcomer BOLD ADDITION. |
Only 4 under 20/1 can hopefully dominate and the placed horses come from these.1.65 and 1.34 the front 2 to place - looks like they fancy the penalty carrying Cranky Corner
400 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Dunguib, 8/1 An Toileanach, 10/1 Fairymount Lord, 14/1 Brave Heart, No Toll, 16/1 Mats Teacher, Sounds Great, 20/1 Arabella Beaufort, 25/1 Grounded Again, Leader Bobby, Lou´s Coole Girl, Mighty Vexatious, Miss Hackenbush, Steviemac, 33/1 Countess Of Reoss, The Flying Scholar, 50/1 Chelsea Wells, Dalys Express, Duke Of Otranto, Max Drive,
Rarely have I ever seen a 1/6 shot over the jumps. Dunguib is THE horse in Ireland at the moment, the one they're all talking about - 1st past the post last time but disqualified as had an illiegal substance in him. Hopefully connections will have kept him out of the pubs and clubs of Galway and he can win today. He must be related to Pegasus the flying horse if he's 1/6 to win or his opponents' jockeys all have to ride with blindfolds on.
1.21 to win and, get this, 1.14 to place. - only £50 mind you
SHORTLIST
12pm - Zakarpattyr v Shaktar 1.13 - in rude health as seen when scoring another 4 in the Europa league mid week
West Ham v Arsenal over 1.5 goals is a tasty 1.22 and we should get a good run for our money surely. Tradeable as well as this game is in running in contrast to Shaktar's
Barcelona at 1.19 usually deliver ( and to be fair mid week they hit the crossbar twice when 2-1 down - a matter of inches divide them from victory) - team news vital here - want to see the big guns out in force - motivation with Real drawing yesterday adds to the justification to get involved
Porto -1.20 - included, like Bordeaux, because of their great home record and an ideal opportunity against the bottom side
330 GALWAY - I highlighted a Walsh/Mullins gamble last week which won at 2/1 - Conclave looks similar here
400 GALWAY -Dunguib must be some horse to be 1.22 to win in a maiden hurdle. He has exclusively raced only over the flat in national hunt flat races so jumping is to be taken on trust.
I was amazed to see 1.14 available to back in the place market, considering 1.22 is the win only price but this has been gobbled up of course as it looks like a rick on the part of some betfairian (or a wise soul perhaps who sees a horse who has not jumped a hurdle in anger making his debut today)
ONE A DAY
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1)Will the Arse game be reminiscent of the 1-0 v Fulham or will it be reminiscent of the Hammers experiences against the big clubs at home ( goals!!) If the latter then 1.22 over 1.5 goals is extremely attractive. This is a tradeable bet
2)Shaktar at 1.14 are very backable given their recent form and the fact this price is far bigger than the bookmakers, ( every little helps) I have backed Shaktar gicen the bigger price on Betfair despite this not being in running
3)400 GALWAY - if getting anything remotely near 1.14 to place, then this must be seen as a value bet for a horse 1.22 to win. NOTE - this is a maiden hurdle and the clue is in the title - Dunguib has done nothing over fences because he hasn't been over fences - impressive wins have all been in bumpers
I personally have backed Shaktar myself - begins at midday and would seek over 1.5 goals in the Arse game as an alternative ( with trading in mind as always)
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