120 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Aiteen Thirtythree, 9/4 Reve De Sivola, 8/1 Frascati Park, 16/1 Dream Garden, 20/1 Pterodactyl, 25/1 Bygones Of Brid.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Aiteen Thirtythree brings a very big reputation to this hurdling debut but REVE DE SIVOLA was himself a very exciting prospect last term. |
Again it's that WalshNicholls partnership who are set to dominate for another season in what looks a 3 horse race and 2 places. No recent form for any of these so it's reputation that puts them wherre they are in the market - 1.45 to place and only 2 places
155 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Alfie Sherrin, 5/1 Bakbenscher, 13/2 Prince Taime, 8/1 Argento Luna, 10/1 Mr Thriller, 12/1 Ring The Boss, Secret Tune, 16/1 El Dancer, Elusive Dream, South O´The Border, 20/1 Amber Brook, Dantari, Golan Way, 25/1 To Arms, 33/1 Mumbles Head, Oscar Park, 50/1 King´s Revenge.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A race packed with fascinating runners, headed perhaps by the unbeaten Alfie Sherrin and the EBF Final runner-up BAKBENSCHER (nap). |
A case of " same again" - a listed hurdles race and a price gapper now 138 for that WalshNicholls combo - 1.43 place and 4 places
225 chEP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Meanus Dandy, 5/1 Jaunty Journey, 6/1 Brenin Cwmtudu, 7/1 Black Ven, 16/1 Cannington Brook, 20/1 Shady Hollow, 100/1 Royal Gunner, Windinthewillows.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Jaunty Journey, Brenin Cwmtudu and Black Ven have all shown plenty of ability over hurdles but MEANUS DANDY looked a good staying prospect in points. |
8 down to 7 and yes you guessed it, those guys at the head of the market -3 places this and a big price gap again. ( note 8 runners originally 3rd and 5th might be worth support on Betfair ( still 3 places) each way) 1.17 to place and 3 places and a nice price gap augurs well here
325 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Noble Alan, 5/2 Five Dream, 13/2 Son Of Flicka, 12/1 Folk Tune.
| DIOMED VERDICT: NOBLE ALAN was the best of these over hurdles and, after jumping soundly and winning well on his chase debut, is likely to win again if putting in a similar display. The odds may be unattractive, though. |
Like Baily storm yesterday, turned out again and strong market leader - Baily Storm did the biz yesterday, can Noble under McCoy do likewise today 1.18 to place
330 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 St Nicholas Abbey, 4/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 5/1 Al Zir, 7/1 Coordinated Cut, 14/1 Dancing David, 16/1 Shakespearean, 20/1 Morana, Musaafer, 33/1 Al Ghazal, Elusive Award, 50/1 Hanson´D, 100/1 Big Audio.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A strong-looking renewal in which ST NICHOLAS ABBEY can give Aidan O'Brien his fifth win in the race by beating Elusive Pimpernel. |
Aiden O'Brien and Murtagh team up on a shortie here and they rarely disappoint. Up in class to group 1
Interestingly no pacesetters for Ballydoyle this time 1.5 relays the fact this is a group 1 so all are quality animals and it's highly competitive
445 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Royal Collonges, 13/8 Chamirey, 9/1 Tell Massini, 20/1 Paddy Live, Paktol Des Brosses, 25/1 Finmere, Rhum, 33/1 Knight In The City, 100/1 Lupita, Me Julie.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This is probably between the ex-French pair Chamirey and ROYAL COLLONGES. |
Front 2 to dominate 4th and 5th favs out here 1.1 and 1.23 the front 2 - straight 8 runners here too
FOOTY
115pmKhimki v Spartak Moscow 1.23 away - lost to Rubin Kazan 2-1 last week and Rubin were shorter odds. Head to head recently 1-0 to Spartak so I would expect Spartak backers to have to sweat it out here
2pm Italy under 17 v Moldova under 17 - 1.14 - likely to be an illiquid market with all the major European games of ore interest to BEtfairians but I tend to oppose Moldova, Andorra, San Marino as a matter of course. Could be a simple one a day here - risk is the level of footy - these are nippers but the pool of resources at Italy as opposed to San Marino should ensure a comfortable time
230 Bayern Munich v Frankfurt - Ribery a big blow to attacking options for Bayern - 2 draws and 2 wins at home this term -Frankfurt lost one and won 2 away from home - one of those games was against Werder Bremen so where does this 1.3 for Bayern come from? Am I missing something re team news for Frankfurt?
3pm - Netherlands under 17 v Malta under 17 - 1.09 - again should be a huge gulf here but under 17's I know nothing about
3pm Rangers v Hibs 1.48 - should be a tricky encounter here -1.48 for the Old Firm normally indicates as much ( and at home as well!) Good enhanced game if Hibs score first
3pm - Spurs v Stoke - 3 draws and an away loss to Stoke , albeit against lower teams in the table than the SPuds.Spurs have such a goalscoring threat that I would be liable to back them and trade after the score first as Stoke are likely to keep it tight as they have proven the 1-1, 1-1, -0- away from home. BUT Liverpool's 4-0 win could offer some optimism as Spurs are 3rd in the table..
5pm - Olympiakos v Ergotilis - 1.23 - beaten 3-0 by Panathanaikos at home, this could
be a guide to the scoreline today - Ergo have drawn 2 and won 1 away from home
530pm - Chelsea v Blackburn - 1.2 - similarly priced when giving a spanking to Athletico Madrid - Blackburn have lost 3 away from home including the drubbing at Arsenal .
6pm - Bordeaux v Le Mans - 1.3- excellent home form but the goals have dried up recently - 2 1-0 home wins in direct contrast to the 4-1's earlier on.
Le Mans lost all 4 away by 1-0 and 2-1 scorelines indicating they don't get spanked. Bordeaux, like Inter Milan, you back until they lose at home ( preferably lay opponents) - they went all last season unbeaten at home
745pm - Inter v Catania - 1.29 - away side lost to 2 of top 4 2-1 so expecation for that sort of scoreline. Inter unbeaten at home - Catania 2 0-0's away from home most recently so I doubt we'll be seeing a goalfest
SHORTLIST
225 CHEPSTOW - Meanus Dandy a price gapper - 1.17 reasonable and again faith in connections as all jumps horses are coing back from layoffs
325 AINTREE - 5050 race - 4 runners and 2 places - Noble Alan unde McCoy and he is dependable 3 of 4 are winners last time out so a niggle there. Nicholls runners cannot be dismissed either
330 DONCASTER - St Nicholas Abbey a talking horses- lots written about this one - 1.5 to place tells you this is high class
2pm Italy under 17 v Moldova under 17 - 1.13 - Moldova, Malta, San MArino, Andorra all opposable. NOT IN RUNNING
3pm Netherlands under 17 v Malta under 17 - see above
3pm -Spurs v Stoke - dependable at short odds this season and I would like to see Crouch but Harry doesn't normally start with them. A game where I would get out if Spus score the first goal
530 - Chelsea v Blackburn - 1.2 - brought the odds home mid week and similar expected today - Blackburn did score first v Arse so watch out enhanced bettors!!
Chelsea have scored 11 goals either side of half time, so dont panic if no early breakthrough
6pm Bordeaux v Le Mans - included because of the home record against a side who keep things tight away from home
745 Inter v Catania - as above re home form
ONE A DAY
The problem with the jumps horses today is that they are generally coming back from 6 months or more off and so fitness and faith in connections is the key
Itally uder 17's stand out for me today - 1.13 compared to the 1.17's about the jumps favourites coming back from a layoff. Not in running alas.
Spurs have been ultra dependable - no Daniel Defoe today which is a big concern for me as he is the highest goalscorer , but Crouch offers another angle in
Chelsea at 1.2 offer some degree of solidity if under 17's don't fill you with confidence
Of the horses Meanus Dandy could be the one today in a 7 runner race, 2 horses are 40/1 and 100/1 reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place
For me though, Italy under 17's offer a degree of hope against such poor opposition. Good luck with your picks - there are so many opportunities today it's a matter of making the right decision
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