Enhanced bets? Well Arsenal were 1 -0 down in a matter of minutes - they equalised - they went 2-1 down - then equalised. Great example of enhanced betting
240 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lava Lamp, 11/4 Yaa Wayl, 5/1 Reeds Bay, 10/1 Edgewater, Frontline Boy, Shibhan, 14/1 Kakapuka, 16/1 Little Perisher, 20/1 Monalini.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LAVA LAMP appears to be on a winnable mark and could get away with the trip round here. |
yaa Wayl is the big mover into evens in places and all red but a nursery -not the ideal race type 1.18 to place
300 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Mont Agel, 3/1 Fine Sight, 4/1 Paschendale, 8/1 Banana Republic, Guidecca Ten, 10/1 First In The Queue, 12/1 Henry San, 14/1 Persona Non Grata, 25/1 Helaku, 66/1 Power Of Dreams.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The promising MONT AGEL can improve past Fine Sight. |
Fine sight under Richard Hughes is now fav - has 2 2nd places and has a reasonable favourites chance it would seem under a good jockey -1.27 to place - Frank on 2nd fav and it is difficult to read how he will perform hence my continued reluctance to trust him
340 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Urban Poet, 9/4 Just Lille, 11/2 Bogside Theatre, 13/2 Silk Affair, 10/1 Dolly Penrose, 25/1 Mr Crystal.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Urban Poet would be very tough to beat if anywhere near his best but the safer option is highly versatile nine-time winner JUST LILLE. |
3rd and 4th favs are out which accentuates the price gap to Dolly and Mr Crystal
a 50/50 RACE NOW - 2 PLACES and 4 runners 1.5 and 1.39 the front 2 to place - big prices but a difficult race - which of Urban and Just do we chose? It is quite likely that one will falter and not place, but which one? The key to success here is to be confident both of the horses fill the top 2 spots.
450 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sham Sheer, 9/2 Cheam Forever, 5/1 Lordship, 13/2 Muftarres, 7/1 Darcey, 10/1 Bere Davis, Very Well Red, 14/1 West End Lad.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SHAM SHEER is well handicapped and is fancied to pounce late off what should be a solid gallop. |
Now 5/4 the fav and on a hatrick - will Fallon ensure he places at least? 1.3 to place
Footy
Ermis v Apeol - 1.35 away from home picques my interest - too early in the season to get any proper form under the belt - Apoel well known for keeping Chelski to 1-0
Panathanaikos v Larissa 1.24 at home -5 from 5 for Pana but on 3 occasions they have won 1-0 and once 2-1, so only just doing enough so, if they do score then this 1.24 must be traded just to be safe.
Larissa has drawn 3 games which could exacerbate the likelihood of a tight game - 2 0-0's
Looking at the 2-0 loss to Olympiakos (very similar to Panathanaikos) this should hopefully be the kind of scoreline - unde 4.5 goals is 1.16 - under 3.5 goals is 1.41 but an illiquid market - this is huge for a Greek match where they can't seem to be arsed to score too many - must be traded out if betting on it at around 1.25 for a 1.15 bet for me
Pacos Ferreira v Benfica - 1.48 away from home - 5 wins and a draw.-won all 3 awayfrom home.
4 draws for Ferreira and have drawn with Porto 1-1 at home so have the ability to keep things tight at home
SHORTLIST
240 PONTEFRACT - Yaa Wayl is evens and 10/11 in places and quite obviously fancied - 1.18 to place
340 PONTE - Urban Poet and Just lille we would hope will dominate - Urban Poet " would be very tough to beat" - resounding confidence from Diomed but there is an " if". The reason I focus on this race is the very enticing 1.35 and 1.39 to place for these 2 - as you know by now with one a day I view these as big odds lol
I cannot see Greek teams going mental and scoring 3 or 4, for that reason Panathanaikos under 3.5 goals at 1.41 is very enticing and there must be scope for trading if tight
Pana have won 3 games 1-0 , one game 2-0 and one game 3-0
Larissa - 2 0-0's, a 2-2 draw , 2-1 loss and 2-0 loss
ONE A DAY
Why is Yaa Wayl being battered into 10/11 ,albeit in a 2 year old nursery - Lava Lamp is the Johnston/Fanning horse and cannot be discounted.
I will chance under 3.5 goals in the Panathanaikos match today as my one a day (although this goes off at 715pm)-tha match is in running and the hope is , for me, that this is another typical low scoring Greek affair, OR ,with trader's head on, that this is tight enough early on to ensure the under 3.5 goal price drops appreciably
As you can appreciate, kick off at 715pm means that surely there will be a place only opportunity in at least one of the races this afternoon and I don't know which opportunity will unfold - it is folly to be so inflexible from my perspective when I can follow the racing live. The one that stands out at time of writing is Yaa Wayl in the 240 Pontefract. Why the extreme confidence - assurance of a place? Nurseries are effectively handicaps for 2 year olds so we must be cautious from that perspective.
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