130 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Inler, 4/1 San Jemeniano, 9/2 Chaussini, 6/1 Kerchak, 7/1 Progress, 20/1 En Fuego, Maashooq, 25/1 House Point, 33/1 Taeping, 100/1 Chorus Boy, Finch Flyer.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There looks sure to be more to come from CHAUSSINI and she is preferred to main form rivals San Jemeniano and Kerchak. |
Now Inler looks to be a good old gamble. The owner is one Harry " Cor Blimey" Findlay who ,shall we say, has been prone to putting a shilling or 2 down on his horses.
Inler was highlighted by me a week or so ago as a massive market mover, and was withdrawn - perhaps the ground was a factor in hampering the gamble? He was withdrawn again a few days ago, and now takes his chance, installed at 7/4 favourite today. Inler is a debutant but the previous trainer/owner antics for the horse suggests that they expect a win, and we cannot ignore any potential Harry Findlay gambles - 1.41 to place if you trust a 2 year old debutant
235 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Emirates Dream, 5/2 Kalypso King, 10/1 Rodrigo De Torres, 12/1 Champagne Style, Get A Grip, 33/1 Invincible Prince.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks most likely to concern EMIRATES DREAM and Kalypso King, with preference for the solid French Group-race efforts of the Godolphin colt. |
A 2 horse race here if the market is to be believed, and again we have a Godolphin horse as fav, but not a maiden -this is a conditions event. While they are in such good form, and whenever Mr Dettori takes the saddle, it could be a good move to continue following Godolphin when fancied - 2 places of course allow for no mistakes 1.26 to place
255 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Snap Tie, 3/1 Rippling Ring, 5/1 Pigeon Island, 6/1 Safari Journey, 100/1 Musical Weld.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SNAP TIE, one of the best prospects around for novice chases at this trip, should collect if his jumping stands the test. |
Again, a novice event and horses of potential taking on a new code. Snap Tie is very well thought of, but there are some familiar names in opposition. We saw with Brett Vale the other day that although they may be good horses in another code, if they cannot jump as fluently, they'll have trouble 1.26 to place
430 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lady Hestia, 5/1 Bollin Judith, 6/1 Ifatfirst, 8/1 Bergonzi, Dramatic Solo, 9/1 General Ting, 10/1 Abstract Folly, 14/1 Summercove, 25/1 Drop The Hammer, 33/1 Royal Flynn.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LADY HESTIA has progressed well as a staying handicapper this year and is probably worth following. |
Price gapper in a class 5 handicap (ideal is class 6 0-60 handicap) 1.41 to place
440 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Barizan, 5/1 Forty Thirty, 6/1 Riptide, 12/1 Royal Max.
| DIOMED VERDICT: If running his race then BARIZAN should continue on his merry way. |
It's heartening to see one AP McCoy on an odds on shot. On a 4 timer and can't continue winning but Diomed notes he " laughed at them" at Market Rasen 1.11 to place which signifies this is 2 places and over hurdles
550 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 The Jigsaw Man, 100/30 Phidippides, 5/1 Crystal Rock, Reland, 10/1 Akiem, William Hogarth, 16/1 Zen Factor, 25/1 Points Of View, 33/1 Boo, 200/1 Wannarock.
| DIOMED VERDICT: THE JIGSAW MAN looked so good in bumpers and is fancied to make a winning debut over hurdles. |
"looked good in bumpers" - yes but he did not have any hurdles to jump over in bumpers! Hurdle debut today, and McCoy onboard. Interesting to see Barry Geraghty fly over from Ireland for Henderson's horse Crystal Rock. 1.25 to place
800 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lingapour, 3/1 Carraiglawn, 4/1 September Morn, 6/1 Dalkan, 8/1 Battleoftrafalgar, 10/1 Mutamaleq, 12/1 Righteous Man, 14/1 Bright Horizon, Mantaray Island, 16/1 Emrani, 20/1 Days Ahead, 25/1 Fait Accompli, His Way, Prince Of Fashion.
September Morn now 6/4 favourite (but do note race off time) O'brien/Murtagh horse expected to run well - illiquid market
830 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Man Of Iron, 13/8 Augustusthestrong, 11/2 Cochlear, 13/2 Funatfuntasia, 7/1 Andre Mon Ami, 50/1 King´s Bastion, 66/1 Dangerous Bill, 100/1 Hot Look.
These are the types of races I look for. 8 runners means 3 places. 2 horses are 100/1 and one horse is 50/1 which should reduce the competitive field to 5 runners (and 3 to place) A race which is dominated by the 2 O'Brien horses and decisions should be made nearer to 830 (common sense really) to decide which to place back -illiquid market
FOOTBALL
Looking through the coupon I am 18 minutes too late for Spain under 17 v Faroe Islands under 17 - this is like shooting fish in a barrel I would suspect, even though none of the players can go for a pint yet!
Le Havre 1.84 v Laval. As I have mentioned before, I specifically follow Le Havre and Nantes on occasion and I would suspect Le HAvre won't lose at home. Laval are 5.5 to lay which is nice and short for a football lay-this is in play too so is interesting
Ghana under 20 v Brazil under 20 - this is the final and is likely to be a cagey, nervy affair
Shelbourne v Athlone 1.23 - Irish football makes my Sunday LEague side look like Champions League winners. To be approached with extreme caution as it is so unpredictable and largely poor ,unreliable, fare.Shelbourne's bet devil rating is 1876 and Athlone's is 469. Huge gulf there could assuage backers.
Goals look most likely with Shelbourne being involved in some recent score draws and Athlone letting in 9 in their last 2 games.
Alas this is not in running and there is only the over 2.5 goals market available. Ready preference is always to trade for me. I hate being helpless if, say, it's 2-0 after 30 minutes, and I can trade out, BUT the final score was 2-0 and the over 2.5 goals bet was scuppered!!
SHORTLIST
I will inore the previous 2 the place races and move on to the obvious one -the 440 Cheltenham and Barizan under McCoy and heavily fancied to win. 1.11 is perfectly reasonably and 3 wins on the trot shows jumping capability. This is a 4 horse race with one horse at 25/1 leaving 3 runners and 2 places.
I do have a slight niggle regarding the fact Barizan is a consistent winner ( because winning runs will end, unless your name is Sea the Stars) but this has the look of a Business As Usual-esque probability race and 1.11 is perfectly reasonable for me.
830 DUNDALK - a classic template of the kind of race I look for. 8 runners - 3 places - 3 at 50/1 or bigger. I cannot comment on the race just yet as there is the small matter of 8 hours between now and race time, but this race will definitely interest me this evening and is one I will look into .
Shelbourne v Athlone 1.23 - it's all about building up the evidence to justify the odds and backing at such odds. I am really drawn by the ratings at www.betdevil.com which puts Shelbourne at 1876 and Athlone at 469. My concern is that Shelbourne have been involved in 3 score draws in their last 4 games In fact, at LAdbrokes 1-1 is 9/1, 2-2 is 25/1 and 3-3 is 66/1. I might have £2 just for a laugh this evening.
The fact this is not in running is very offputting indeed, because I would expect goals this evening.
Against sides similarly rated to Athlone, Shelbourne have won 4-2, 2-0 and 2-0 ( Athlone rated 469, these teams rated 364, 376, 466)
Shelbourne were this price when playing Wexford youths recently and lost at home 2-1
Athlone have recently conceded 9 goal without scoring in their last 2 games and away from home lost their last 4 by big margins.
Over 2.5 goals is around 1.75 but again, not in running
ONE A DAY
For simplicity sake, Barizan for me - odds are crap, it's over jumps, but it looks a 3 horse race and 2 places and probability wise looks a good enough bet. BEing over jumps, I'll try to trade out.
The 830 Dundalk has more of a classic feel about it for place backers like me and is worth waiting for this evening and looks better than BArizan but at time of writing I cannot put anything forward because a lot can happen between now and 830pm
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