Leeds won 2-1. Pity it wasn't in running, as I would have been out there at 2-0
300 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Folk Tune, 9/4 Unforgettable, 9/2 Le Corvee, 6/1 Leamington Lad, Singhalongtasveer, 20/1 Rince Donn, 50/1 Bid Art, Drombeg Pride, 100/1 Grey Dasler.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FOLK TUNE (nap) is a talented gelding who can stamp his authority on these. |
In a tough day, this race could be reduced to 5 competitive runners, which will make Folk Tune's job easier to place 1.33 to place - and Towcester is a tricky old track with a killer uphill finish
310 NOTTS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 High Comedy, Merchant Of Medici, 9/2 Picnic Party, 11/2 Skyrider, 8/1 Midwestern, 11/1 Deacon Blues, Frequency, Ostentation, 14/1 Inler, 16/1 Pink Please, 33/1 Galatian, Gee Major, 40/1 No Explaining, 66/1 Bullet Duck, Lord Victor, Olney Lass, 100/1 Gessabelle.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Merchant Of Medici probably just about sets the standard but there are several newcomers who could be up to making an impact, with PICNIC PARTY one of the more interesting contenders. |
The money seems to be down on debutant Inler - 2/1 in places ( check out the betting forecast price) - of course this is the only thing we can grasp about the horse- as a 2 year old debutant he will either win hard held or run green. It's a big field, so how significant is this apparent market move? 1.62 - illiquid place market here but a big price if this is an accurate market mover
345 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sense Of Purpose, 5/2 Lady Lupus, 8/1 Aliwiyya, 10/1 Brazilian Beauty, Kristal Komet, 12/1 Alamanda, Lovingonyourmind, 14/1 Fancy Footwork, Marjustar, Snap Alam, 16/1 Angel Of Speed, 20/1 Campeche Bay, Homalina, Pennys Tune, Tashzara, 25/1 Driveheron, Your Groovy, 33/1 Night Comet,
Front 2 are Weld/SMullen and Mutagh/O'Brien.
A massive field of maiden horses makes this unappealing as a betting medium, but faith in these 2 superb jockey/trainer combinations? 1.28 and 1.33 the front 2 to place
350 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Jim Bobs Girl, 6/4 Lucky Dancer, 8/1 Wricksons Bridge, 10/1 Bradford Boris, 20/1 Command Marshal, 33/1 Glacial Call, 40/1 Castlemaine Vic.
| DIOMED VERDICT: JIM BOBS GIRL may make the most of the weight she receives from Lucky Dancer. |
Only 3 under 10/1 but only 2 places - but Choc Thornton is a jockey I follow and the horse is now 8/11 - not run since Feb though 1.28 to place but only 2 places
420 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Cool Friend, 9/2 Consulate, Mumbles Pier, 5/1 Penyfan Dawn, 6/1 Rathrockscourt, 12/1 Goose Green, 16/1 Maggio, 20/1 Orbital Orchid.
| DIOMED VERDICT: COOL FRIEND is the form pick but Mumbles Pier is progressive and may be the one to profit if the selection fails to deliver. |
Coolfriend well backed but I suspect there'll be some each way bets to nothingon McCoy's Mumbles Pier 1.21 to place Cool friend
515 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Chief Lone Eagle, 7/4 Galileo´s Choice, 7/1 Sweet Wake, 12/1 Customary Chorus, 14/1 Puyol, 20/1 Slapper, The Mosscheeper, 33/1 Hot Look.
Yet again it's Murtagh/O'Brien v Weld/Smullen here in a 3 the place race.I would always tend to favour the Ballydoyle horses-the stable seems to have greater strength in depth and its shorties generally run well 1.09 and 1.14 to place - markets in all cases are illiquid at time of writing so these prices are not really accurate
520 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 New Rackheath, 7/2 Mr Tee Pee, 7/1 Wait For The Light, 9/1 Dontsayathing, Lansdowne Princess, 10/1 Scotsbrook Cloud, Wujood, 14/1 Kenwyn, 33/1 Galant Eye, Young Tot, 40/1 Marktic Fashion.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MR TEE PEE can add to his trainer's excellent recent record. |
Looking back over old posts, I would suspect you read mention of New Rackheath - a big price gapper in the live betting market - coming back from a lay off since June 1.26 to place - the only horse under evens by some distance in the place market
FOOTBALL
Nyirmadai v Debrecen - 1.1 to win - we know Debrecen from the Champions LEague - looks like first game of season and Debrecen are fresh from their recent CHampiosn LEague matches
Zivanice v Jablonec - 1.27 Jablonec - Czech Cup game so we are betting blind here as there's not much to look at from a research perspective
Luxembourg u19 v Germany u19 - 1.05 the Germans. NOTE - Luxembourg nippers beat Bosnia 1-0 recently so will be buoyed by this ,and Bosnia's price was similar to Germany's. Can lightening strike twice? Don't think so. Look to goals in this game hopefully
Turkey u19 v Moldova u19 - 1.38 seems a big price against such a poor footballing nation - the "nippers" factor?
Liverpool(R) v Burnley(R) - illiquid market but 1.21 at present - reserves football - surely Liverpool have too much strength in depth here?
The under 20's tournament reaches the closing stages, and the games will be very tight. For instance, Brazil are 4/6 which tells you everything
SHORTLIST
300 TOWCESTER -Folk Tune is fancied by Diomed and 1.33 to place - this race can be reduced to 5 runners , 3 of which will place, but 2 horses are 5/1 and not readily discounted. Add Towcester to this and we have a race representative of a diffifcult day
420 EXETER - like the race above, this can be reduced (if the outsiders run as outsiders) to 6 runners ( 3 to place). Cool friend is nearly " all red" and well fancied. Ominously, McCoy's Mumbles Head is breathing down his throat.1.28 to place in this novices hurdle
515 NAVAN - Chief Lone Eagle for Murtagh/O'Brien should give us a good place opportunity -only 4 under 20/1 -Galileo's Choice is a formidable opponent under Weld/Smullen
520 EXETER - I can't shake off New Rackheath - I remember the horse for some reason -1.26 to place
It don't take a genius to put up German under 19's at 1.05 - goals? Well not in running and only over /under 2.5 goals is available in a very illiquid market
Turkeyu19 at 1.38 -again I can't ignore this 1.38 agaisnt Moldova of all places! -not in running and very illiquid market so price not really representative of true odds
Looks very big to me
ONE A DAY
It is always a challenge getting place only bets over the jumps as we have the additional obstacle of, erm, obstacles
Chance on Folk tune today and at 1.33 I would be monitoring this in running - beginners chase and the course are slight negatives
Chief Lone eagle looks far safer but the odds are rubbish, and a good alternative is to place back him, then back Germany under 19's at 1.05 for a total 1.14 equalivalent bet - yes not a one a day but both should oblige
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