The choice Encompassing placed 2nd so job done
250 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Baily Storm, 9/2 Dean´s Grange, 6/1 Nur Tau, 10/1 Search For Gold, 50/1 Jessica.
| DIOMED VERDICT: BAILY STORM looked decent on his debut for this yard at Stratford and can follow up. |
now 2/7 in places. Only 2 places ,2 horses at 25/1 or bigger should reduce this to fighting for 2 places, as long as all remain upright 1.13 to place is great odds for a 1/3 shot in the win market but relates the fact this is a 2 place race and any mistakes could prove costly- a hard to beat selection - he stays on his feet, jumps well and should win easily
340 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hot Prospect, 4/1 Frozen Power, Party Doctor, 13/2 Gallic Star, 8/1 Namecheck, 10/1 San Cassiano, 12/1 Black Snowflake, 16/1 Art Excellence, 28/1 Tominator, 33/1 Astonishment, Top Spin.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HOT PROSPECT has created a highly favourable impression in maiden company - the form of which has plenty of substance - and represents a trainer who is 7-13 with juveniles at Pontefract in recent seasons. |
Not something you see very often - a listed race on a Monday. All conquering Godolphin have Frozen power with Hot Prospect 4/6 in the live market under Fallon 1.21 to place - catapulted from class 4 maiden company into listed class - must be a hot prospect!
450 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Chapel Flowers, 5/2 Particle, 4/1 Russellstown Boy, 8/1 Pipers Legend, 20/1 Ask Oscar, Drombeg Pride, 25/1 Bid Art, Mortar.
| DIOMED VERDICT: If top of the ground is the key to RUSSELLSTOWN BOY then expect an improved performance here. |
1st and 3rd are non runners here leaving the door wide open for Particle. poor horse was knackered when he refused at the last at Ffos Las.Was an original 8 runner race - hope for 3 places on Betfair. Will Particle be a willing participant today? 3 places and 6 runners make this a 50/50 race bt they'll all be wondering " will he or won't he?" as far as Particle is concerned.Illiquid market at present and 1.3 on offer to back the place and 1.45 to lay means back price may rise nearer the off. Looks a tight old market, all horses are " red" in the betting site indicating support for all.
I would have thought with 1st and 3rd market leaders out, Particle would be a lot shorter
520 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 River Beauty, 4/1 Sure Fire, 5/1 Romantic Lead, 14/1 Pro Pell, 16/1 Lord Landen, 25/1 Bell Hill Lad, Jordans Day, 33/1 Mrs Onc.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Sure Fire is interesting but the most likely winner is RIVER BEAUTY. |
Encapsulates the jumps at the moment. Coming off the back of a long lay off since April 2008 and only form has been in bumpers and not over obstacles.
3 horses are 40/1 or bigger and hopefully can be dismissed leaving 5 runners and 3 places Lord Landen is a potential gamble here into 9/1 and this fits into the each way system I was talking about for jumps. 1.2 to place exudes confidence in a horse off since April 08 and not jumped in anger.
3rd and 5th favourite backed each way in the live market - Romantic Lead and Pro Pell -be interesting to see if there are any fallers and these 2 can then get a look in
FOOTBALL
Nantes v Metz - 1.85 home - with Le Havre losing at home on Friday, it would be a disappointment if Nantes did not find the adequate motivation to exploit the loss of likely league title rival.
100% home record for Nantes and Metz have lost 3 and drawn one away from home. AS you will read in the next newsletter, I like to look at teams which are closely matched on ability. Le Havre at home beat Metz 2-0 and this scoreline is something to consider in tonight's Nantes home game
Fulham v Hull 1.69 - Phil Brown - the headset clown - takes his fake sun tan and extra supply of headsets to Fulham tonight on the back of poor away form. Interestingly though, Hull have scored in every away match.Fulham have been the oh-so-nearly boys in their last 3, losing narrowly twice and drawing 2-2.
At home, they have lost against 2 of the big 4, so this skews the home form somewhat. Expectation is for the win tonight, but Hull have shown they can score away from home so perhaps aa venture towards the over 1.5 goals market, or a note of alert for enhanced bettors should Hull score first.
5 of Fulham's goals have come in the 2nd half this season so if you fancied Fulham initially, perhaps prepare for a 0-0 at half time.
SHORTLIST
250 PLUMPTON - 1.13 about Baily storm to place looks like a gift. 4/9 in the betting forecast and now 3/10 and 2/7 in places, he faces 2 clear outsiders and 2 main rivals who are likely to be te ones vying for places. 2 miles 5 is a bit of a distance but ably supported by Richard Johnson in the saddle.
The only things that scupper this bet are bad jumping, or falling. Always the risk we take and will continue to take this jumps season
450 PLUMPTON - an intriguing puzzle. Particle has the form in the book but his refusal last time out has left punters all of a dither. 1.33 to place in a 50/50 race - 6 runners and 3 places could look big at around 5pm.
Laying Hull today at 6.8 is the equivalent of a 1.16 bet. If you were using £100 stakes, then £100 becomes your fixed liability . Has a great chance of coming off and if Fulham score first then we can get our stake back and spread profits.
Metz are available to lay at 5.7 for an equivalent 1.20 bet and this is interesting too, given the match is in running.
ONE A DAY
Baily storm for me. Risky because it's a 2 mile 5 furlong jumps race so we have another opponent - the obstacles. 2 clear outsiders should leave 3 fighting for 2 places. A clear round and Baily storm will be difficult to keep out of the frame.
This jumps season, one or 2 of these will fall, or blunder , but hopefully not today
If you are not taken by the jumps and place backing so short over a long distance, then Hull look layable this evening for a 1.16 bet which is tradeable if Fulham score first
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