Thursday, 15 October 2009

15/10

Job done yesterday whichever way you looked at it. Fareej and Business as usual took the places at Lingfield, the 1/3 shot won with ease ( 1.15 a huge price for place betting), and in the footy, Ukraine and Slovenia both scored and won at half time.
Fancy an enhanced bet? Well I didn't fancy Italy yesterday because it was a pointless match, but while watching the Ireland match, the commentator mentioned that Italy ,under Lippi, had not lost a World Cup qualifier at home EVER!
So, at 1-0 down to Cyprus, I backed Italy at 1.98.
Cue the goal BUT to Cyprus. Italy were now backable at 15! I was swearing like a trooper.
Cue the comeback. To be honest I had resigned myself to defeat with this enhanced bet, and was cursing the fact I had got involved with a team who really wouldn't be busting a gut as regards the points, BUT surely they'd want to keep this home record going? Imagine losing the unbeaten record to Cyprus! The players would be finding horses' heads in the beds!
Quite unbelievably, Gilardino scored a hatrick, the last coming in the 91st minute and I was rewarded for my enhanced bet.
Got away with that!!
If anyone backed Italy 2-0 down at 15, then you have my congratulations!

210 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Saboteur, 9/2 Readymade, 13/2 Idealism, 8/1 Home Advantage, Mawaddah, 10/1 Countess Comet, 12/1 Sadler´s Mark, Shelfah, 33/1 Flag Of Glory, Khazara, 40/1 Inshaallah, Star Of Kalani, 100/1 A P Ling, Dovedon Diva, Master Of Song, Set To Rock, The Love Guru.

DIOMED VERDICT: Some interesting newcomers but SABOTEUR has been far from disgraced in sales races at Newmarket the last twice and looks the one to beat returned to maiden company.

maximum respect for Godolphin at the moment and Sabateur 1.27 to place but a 17 runner maiden can be fraught with danger

310 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Troopingthecolour, 5/1 Simulate, 11/2 Panto Princess, 6/1 Country Road, 9/1 Black Eagle, Starkat, 14/1 Two Together, 16/1 Time Book, 20/1 Kashubian Quest, 33/1 Uncle Keef, 66/1 Bella Fighetta, Little Billie, 100/1 Dovedon Earl, Silvester, Stardust Memories, Swirl Tango.

DIOMED VERDICT: TROOPINGTHECOLOUR is the clear form pick but none have had much racing, several have shown significant ability and Simulate is an eyecatching newcomer.

Why the move for Godolphin's Black eagle into 6/4 in places? Big field maiden with many interesting newcomers though 1.29 to place

410 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Horseradish, 9/2 Gojeri, 11/2 Silk Street, 13/2 Pinnacle Lad, 8/1 Diman Waters, 11/1 Zelos Spirit, 14/1 Jack Luey, 25/1 Kalahari Desert, 40/1 Avec Moi, 50/1 Atherton, 66/1 Ochilview Warrior.

DIOMED VERDICT: HORSERADISH was turned over at very short odds on Fibresand last time but it's almost certainly worth excusing him given the change of surface.

fallon takes over from Hayley " head" Turner on Horseradish - 2nd twice and now odds on price gapper 1.11 to place - they think this one will place -4/7------7/1 in the live market -another maiden race and 1.11 is very short in such a race ( glass half empty, but glass half full - must be well thought of placing today

415 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sizing Europe, 13/8 Harchibald, 5/1 Bobs Pride, 12/1 Sarteano, 20/1 Coolpotts, 25/1 Tipolino, 66/1 Gundagai.
A 4 horse race if the prices are accurate and Sizing Europe is odds on now.1.31 to place - a lot of the horses are coming back from a layoff ( unique to the start of the jumps season)

420 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Brett Vale, 13/2 Nicky Nutjob, 8/1 Leulahleulahlay, Strong Storm, 12/1 Dark Oasis, 14/1 Bedarra Boy, Protiva, 33/1 Heaven Or Hell, 40/1 Mr Deal, Weet In Nerja, 50/1 Princess Soraya, 66/1 Cheetah Beetah, Dicksons Delight, 100/1 Wild Lyph.

DIOMED VERDICT: BRETT VALE should win if bringing most of his Flat ability to his hurdling debut.

A one a day bet when on the flat, but a hurdling debutant and price gapper. Bit of a gamble as we are taking his ability to jump on trust 1.45 to place

450 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 The Package, 3/1 Matuhi, 5/1 Oscar Royal, 20/1 Pharaon De Touzaine, 25/1 Cove Mountain, 33/1 Brimley, Ralahine.

DIOMED VERDICT: THE PACKAGE should outclass his rivals if anywhere near his best.

This is what makes October difficult - jumps horses coming back from a layoff. The Package is a possible " hard to beat " selection-only 2 places though so any mistakes will be punished 1.26 to place

FOOTBALL
Romania under 19's v Armenia 1.15 to win - the younger they get the more precarious the bet!!

SHORTLIST
There are simply no Business as usual 3 runner 2 places races today, and we are faced largely with maiden races ( and big field in those races to boot) along with jumps races where fitness is taken on trust.
410 NOTTINGHAM - Horseradish I suppose is the first horse of interest today but there is no margin for error with such a short place only price. Huge price gapper, Fallon on board today and 2 2nd places augur well. Was a one a day selection last time out when finishing 2nd.
ONE A DAY
That's it for me today, after the plethora of opportunities yesterday - doubtless a few of these will place today but nothing is as rock solid as ,say, Slovenia v San Marino winning at half time, or the 3 horse race and 2 places of yesterday.
The market confidence in Horseradish cannot be ignored ,neither can the huge price gap in the live market 4/7 - - - 7/1.
Officially a no bet day for me today on the one a days ( the weekend is nearly upon us and the European football returns so there are plenty of future opportunities) but I will follow the markets live in running and see if I can pick one good bet to place



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