8/10

Folk tune won yesterday - the alternatives? - Chief lone eagle placed and Germany nippers won 3-0
On to today, and I currently have a bet in the Japan v Hong Kong Asian Cup Qualifier - Japs are 2-0 up as I write ( by the time I finish the blog, no doubt Hong Kong will be winning5-2!!) So if the Japs win, that's my one a day sorted - 1.12 /1.13 were the odds and I thought Japan would field a strong side, then field a weaker side against Scotland at the weekend ( the Asian Cup is far more important for them)


200 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Good Old Days, 7/2 Colliers Court, 7/1 Red Birr, Zorro De La Vega, 10/1 Clarricien, 12/1 Magpie, 14/1 Satindra, 16/1 Won More Night, 25/1 Rooster´s Reunion, Star Galaxy.

DIOMEDs and VERDICT: GOOD OLD DAYS was in the form of his life last month and can up his game to complete a hat-trick off this higher mark.

Price gapper on a hatrick ( up 12 lb and conditional jockey don't augur too well)

210 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Noafal, 11/2 Mutafajer, 6/1 Exceedthewildman, 8/1 Swish Dish, 10/1 Free For All, 12/1 The Rectifier, 14/1 Adventure Story, 20/1 Compton Way, Quite Something, 33/1 Celtic Ransom, 50/1 Monograph, 66/1 Kings ´n Dreams, 100/1 Novillero.

DIOMED VERDICT: NOAFAL can fulfil his considerable debut promise at the expense of Exceedthewildman and newcomer Mutafajer.

Price gapper but look at mutafajer - godolphin runner now 7/4 and threatening to take favouritism - debutant here so caution but this is a big stable

225 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alazan, 3/1 Troubletimestwo, 5/1 Fong´s Alibi, 12/1 Second To Nun, 20/1 Coeur Brule, 33/1 Southoffrance, 40/1 Who Art Thou.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALAZAN is taken to go one better than on his promisng debut.

I always like to see a big shortening in price for a fav, and 2/5 augurs well - negatives - juvenile maiden hurdle - BUT has had a recent run - only 2 places though 1.19 place

300 TRAMORE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Understood, 3/1 Tawaagg, 4/1 Hassuna, 9/2 High Queen, 6/1 Fleeting Moment, 8/1 Kalasay, 25/1 Kendrift, Premier Cheetah, 33/1 Duchamp Jack, Nurse Dallas, 50/1 Fairstreet Express, Moonlight Ridge, Queen Victoria,

Remember Tawaag - Mullins and Walsh at the Galway fav and duly placed 2nd - well thought of by trainer if I remember

400 TRAMORE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Captive Audience, 15/8 Mr Clyde, 6/1 Cool Article, 12/1 Express Train, Whats On The Menu, 16/1 Knockrue Tess, 20/1 Another Aoife, Dohora Lady, 25/1 Alleged Witness.

Ruby's sister on board a fancy in this maiden where only 3 are under 16/1 ( but this is Ireland!!)

415 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Get Me Out Of Here, 7/2 Pure Faith, 6/1 Calaficial, Rocky River, 10/1 Fidelis, 12/1 Cricket Boy, Twentynineblack, 20/1 Bled, 25/1 Maurisca, 33/1 Pocket Park, 100/1 Raise You Five.

DIOMED VERDICT: GET ME OUT OF HERE made a bright start when winning his sole bumper start and can successfully defend the unbeaten record on this switch to hurdles.

AP takes the ride on a shortie - only 5 under 16/1 -hopefully will involve just these allow McCoy's mount to have a good place chance

600 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Illuminative, 5/1 Ask The Oracle, Bowsers Beau, Classically, 6/1 Dom Polski, 16/1 Final Drive, Herecomethegirls, 33/1 Balais Folly, Barathea´s Acclaim, 50/1 Bahamian Mouse, Silvester.

DIOMED VERDICT: ILLUMINATIVE ran on well enough when the penny dropped on debut and looks the safest option here.

I hate one time out maidens installed at odds on but this has a look of a probability race about it with 6 only under 40/1, one of those 6 is 20/1

700 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kilt Rock, 5/1 Wing Of Faith, 8/1 Wigan Lane, 10/1 Oasis Jade, 12/1 Pursuit Of Gold, Speedyfix, 20/1 Split The Pot, The Two G´S, Yeah, 25/1 Saachi´s Vision, 33/1 Ballyvonane.

DIOMED VERDICT: WING OF FAITH ran well here from a bad draw on his penultimate start and may prove a value alternative to the likely hotpot Kilt Rock.

I seem to remember this was a 0-60 class 6 handicap price gapper last time out ,and he is so again

OTHERS

15:00

Kuruvchi vs Slavia Prague

13/1

11/2

1/8

15:00

Nachod Destne vs Sparta Prague

17/1

8/1

1/20

The 2 Pragues are in action this aternoon in the Czech Cup in which I am, of course, an expert (NOT!!) -remember FC HOnka - well Sparta Prague are 1.11 on Betfair - and I am afraid I have just grabbed those as Ladbrokes had them up at 1.05
Have to go purely by odds of course and expectation is for 3-0 , 4-0 - that kind of scoreline - of course I do not know if this is the Czech version of the Carling Cup so team news would be good
NOT IN RUNNING
Serbia under 19's v Faroe - 1.05 says it all really - will the Brian Kerr factor come into play? Well I tend to think Faroe are a completely different proposition at home ( well the seniors anyway) and away it's business as usual ( losing!)

SHORTLIST
Well the Japs are 3-0 up, so it looks like one a day for me in the bag.
Football wise, Sparta Prague at 1.11 looked a steal if the bookies 1.05 was a correct interpretation of their chances
Croatia v Qatar - 1.24 Croats - is in running-is this a friendly or not? I don't know - if a meaningful game then surely 1.24 looks superb for Croats. Do they have a weekend engagement? I would think not( there are world cup qualifiers at the weekend) - Betfair just puts this up as an international game
Horse wise - well 225 WINCANTON - you wouldn't need to be Sherlock Holmes to find this one - Alazan - I like the price drop compared to the betting forecast. Race type allows for novicy jumping mistakes ,and with 2 places we really need to be confident - the market certainly is.
415 WORC - Get me out of here - 1.21 to place with McCoy on board - potential rather than race conditioned jumping experience, as this is only a bumper winner ( flat race)
600 KEMP - Illuminative 1.21 to place - exciting from a probability perspective as only 5 under20/1 , 6 under 40/1
BUT that onld dilemma - one time out 2 year old expected to automatically repeat initial promise on sole run
ONE A DAY - personally ,with JApan 4-0 up as I write, it's job done here (1120am kick off)
Sparta Prague I have backed already with double bookmaker odds on Betfair (like FC Honka recently)1.11 I got so that's me sorted today (not in running so hoping for an easy afternoon)
Croatia at the odds and against Qatar must win surely, and at 1.23 it's a great price
Horse wise, it's difficult but Alazan to place looks good with a 4/5 betting forecast horse going off 2/5 in the live market - only 2 places though
SO, FOR ME, ONE A DAY SPARTA PRAGUE (although you might not be able to replicate the 1.11 odds)
japan now 5-0 up - one a day looks in