So much for going 3-0 up away from home!
hafawa placed (well won) and Botany won. Brazil's under 20's only managed 1 goal which brought the over 1.5 price down to 1.55 but still resulted in a loss as the goal was not scored early enough. Still, this is ONE A DAY and the ONE A DAY was in the bag - that's what counts
Onto today and it's minnows v giants today internationally, and there are numerous matches which can be deemed, from one side at least, to be called a dead rubber - nothing to play for except pride and ticket revenue. Doesn't matter if they win/lose or draw.
So do be careful. Ivory coast needed a point - they got a point -they could have won. Brazil v Bolivia - Brazil nothing to play for - lose
England v Ukraine - nothing to play for - lose
and so on
A quick look through the footy to start with
1pm Russia under 21 v Moldova under 21 - 1.12 -as I said previously, Moldova, Andorra, Leichtenstein, Faroe Islands (away from home), Luxembourg, can all be opposed with a degree of confidence as long as the games are meaningful
430pm - Andorra v ukraine - 1.01 - Ukraine are unbackable here and should win with ease - as ever goals are the way to go as is halftime/fulltime to enhance bets - 1.23 half time/full time - 1.08 over 1.5 goals and 1.36 over 2.5 goals - 5 goals last time at home for the Ukrainians - 2-0 at half time - is there any reason to expect less away from home?Ukraine have a game in hand and need the 3 points to get 2nd place ( hence the reason they had to beat England as they had this game coming up) So a must win for Ukraine ( the motivation we need)
7pmGreece v Luxembourg - 1.04 - The Greeks showed against Lithuania recently that they could score more than one goal!(they got 5) so the hope is for a replication of that this evening ( Greeks usually woefully inadequate infront of goal - Greece need to win and have scored 15 goals in 7 games against Luxembourg - about 2 a game, but their 5 scored last time out is encouraging ( or a sign that Lithuania can't defend) Luxembourg got spanked 7-0 by Israel and 3-0 by the Swiss
7pm - Romania v Faroe Islands - 1.11 - beware the Faroes under Brian Kerr at home but away they pose little threat although may hold on to 0-0 for a frustrating period - 1.14 over 1.5 goals - I am always wary that it is BRian Kerr at the helm. 1.09 now for the straight win
7pm- Turkey v Armenia (take 2!!) - 1.29 - motivation a factor for both camps. As with all of these matches, is there any reason to bust a gut for a win? This is why I have left Italy, Germany, Republic of Ireland alone - Turkey cannot qualify so be very wary here - they gave up against Belgium as soon as they knew they could not go to the World Cup so there is zero motivation for a pointless match
730pm - San Marino v SLovenia - 1.01 - again thoughts go automatically to goals markets and halftime/fulltime markets - 1.19 halftime/fulltime and 1.25 over 2.5 goals -surely San Marino are one of the weakest sides out there - Slovenia look solid and 5-0 head to heads already is good.
745pm - Portugal v Malta - 1.01 - as above and perhaps a look at Ronny as any time goalscorer if he is playing- with Sweden breathing down their necks, Portugal must win tonight and are priced to do so - 1.18 for halftime/fulltime and 1.28 over 2.5 goals - concern with the absence of Ronaldo as he can be assured of adding a couple of goals against such a weak side.
8pm - England v Belarus - 1.2 - great example of a match where England don't need a thing, apart from, I suppose, pleasing the home support. A neutral bet perhaps at over 1.5 goals would involve both sides. 1.18 over 1.5 goals includes both sides and when priced at 1.2 England are expected to score at least. There is strength in depth in the forward line and it could be little and large this evening with Crouch and Defoe? Remember this is a dead rubber for England
11pm - Brazil v Venuzuela - 1.23 - home match and there were team changes against Bolivia - nothing to play for with Brazil, and again the hope for goals and a neutral market which involves both sides - 1.17 for over 1.5 goals looks decent enough even if there are some changes to the Braail line up
www.fifa.com is a great website to read about teams' motivations. Do they have anything to play for? The site also shows head to heads, previous scores and latest news
200 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Fareej, 7/4 Business As Usual, 5/2 Magician´s Cape, 12/1 Thrust Control.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A tricky novice event in which FAREEJ gets the nod over Business As Usual and Magician's Cape. |
3 runners now and still 2 places - great probability race - 1.28 and 1.26 the front 2 shows you this really is a 3 horse race, but you can take a chance on one finishing in the first 2
420 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Our Monty, 8/1 Appeal Denied, Golden Moon, 12/1 A Little Different, Aladdins Cave, Dafarabad, 14/1 Deise Dan, Something Grand, Son Of Mary, Trikirk, 20/1 Dallaglio, Keep Me, Mr Duffy, Theglenbeighdancer, 25/1 Pretty Happy, Secretofshambhala, Seepeeoh, The Gripper, Turklord, 33/1 Bokkie Park, Merry Cowboy, Persian Buck, Watermelon, 50/1 Unico, 66/1 Choir Leader,
Price gapper now 4/6 - - - -12/1 in the live market for Walsh/Mullins combo 1.23 to place
420 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Malakai, 4/1 Carmela Maria, 5/1 Railway Park, 10/1 New Shuil, 33/1 English Archer.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It will be disappointing if MAKAKAI isn't able to see of these rivals. |
2 horses at 16/1 and 33/1 and a fav battered into 1/3. Hurdle event though - 1.15 to place looks big for a 1/3 shot to win - 2 places and hurdles the reason I suppose
430 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mickmacmagoole, 7/2 Rathrockscourt, 5/1 Star Tenor, 8/1 Captain Becket, 10/1 Last Pioneer, 12/1 Anglican, 14/1 Hareem, Hot Zone, 33/1 Almanshood, Earlestown Boy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MICKMACMAGOOLE won a shade cosily at Hexham and probably has less on his plate this afternoon. |
Fav now odds on under McCoy and has had a recent run 1.18 to place
535 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 If Ever, 7/4 Quite The Man, 8/1 Red Not Blue, 10/1 Chain Of Command, L´Eldorado, 14/1 Tegan Lee, 33/1 Driving Seat.
| DIOMED VERDICT: IF EVER shaped well enough on her Ffos Las introduction to suggest she can win at this level. |
Chain of command now 15/8 - a potential gamble in a gambling type of race ( bumper) - 1.76 to place - if you believe this is a gamble, then the price is huge - only 2 places
SHORTLIST
200 LINGFIELD - the best probability race of the day. Business as Usual is mentioned in the Racing Post Gallops report and Fareej mentioned in the Trading Centre.
Prices are very interesting given it's a 3 horse race and 2 places but all seem to be equally capable
420 PUNCHESTOWN - Our Monty represents the all conquering Walsh/Mullins combination and if backed, must go well. Big field hurdle event a negative but the weather is beautiful today so no ground concerns
420 WETHERBY - faith in the market here with Makadai 1/3 now in the win market and 1.15 in the place market
Andorra v Ukraine - halftime at around 1.23 could be the way to go here in a MUST WIN match for Ukraine to take them into the playoffs
San Marino v Slovenia - 1.19 half time and 1.25 over 2.5 goals looks good prices for a quite solid looking away side
ONE A DAY
A particularly interesting day today I think, -the horses look especially strong today. We have a 3 horse race and 2 to place at juicy prices. It is simply a matter of close your eyes, pick one out and hope he finishes in the first 2.
For me though, standout seems to be San MArino v Slovenia. We have the motivated Slovenians - a meaningful game here - they've beaten both Poland and Slovakia ,sscoring 5 goals and have beaten San Marino 5-0 already
The problem with this game is that it is not in running and the markets are not very liquid with ,I suppose, in running games taking precedence for punters' money
1.19 half time is a great price I think, but I would always prefer in running trading where football is concerned.
200 LING - 1.24 on the fav to place is a great price. I would go with the market favourite at 2pm and at time of writing it's business as usual but opponents are Dettori and Ryan Moore!
For me, I will stick with Slovenia scoring in the 1st half to no prely, but do read the blog as there are multiple one a day opportunities. Loads of opportunities to profit and next bet would be Ukraine at 1.2 to be leading at half time
No comments:
Post a Comment