Barizan won and 1.13 was a welcome race off price for a 1/4 shot to place in what was a 3 horse race really.
145 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mcmurrough, 4/1 Skylancer, 7/1 Ergo, Inspector Clouseau, 10/1 Darfour, Jewelled Dagger, Kosta Brava, 20/1 Tutto Bene, 33/1 Alpine Warrior, 66/1 Waldo Winchester, 100/1 Noble Vic, Piccolo Pride.
| DIOMED VERDICT: With McMurrough disappointing last time an each-way chance is taken with DARFOUR, who ran well on his hurdle debut at Perth last time in a race that has worked out very well. |
A difficult ride last time if memory serves, but in this big field, the market still likes him - 4/5 in places 1.2 to place
225 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Chabal, 4/1 Steinbeck, 7/1 Xtension, 8/1 Silver Grecian, 10/1 High Twelve, 14/1 Dick Turpin, 16/1 Buzzword, 20/1 Awesome Act, 25/1 Fencing Master, 33/1 Maroon Machine, 66/1 Beethoven, Lord High Admiral, Manhattan Fox, Timely Jazz, 100/1 Free Judgement.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Jim Bolger is going for a four-timer in this race with Chabal but the bare form of his National Stakes second does not make a compelling case and preference is for STEINBECK who was touted as something special when making a winning debut back in May. |
If Diomed is right, then an O'Brien horse touted as something special must be good - Murtagh on board, and the usual 2 O'Brien pace setters beethoven , fencing master and Lord High Admiral - 2.28 to place
240 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Picture This, 11/4 Billie Magern, 3/1 Baddam, 13/2 Kilcrea Asla, 10/1 Risk, 14/1 Lorum Leader, 16/1 Benbane Head, 33/1 Tiermore, 66/1 Ready Or Not.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This will be much tougher for Baddam now that he has BILLIE MAGERN and Picture This in opposition. |
Nicholls and Walsh are likely to dominate this winer and Picture this takes favouratism against a competitive field made slightly weaker by Kilcrea Castle as a non runner 1.35 to place
300 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Fame And Glory, 11/2 Sariska, 6/1 Mawatheeq, 7/1 Never On Sunday, 12/1 Doctor Fremantle, 14/1 Twice Over, 16/1 Alpine Rose, Pipedreamer, 33/1 Campanologist, Virtual, 66/1 Barshiba, Forgotten Voice, 100/1 City Leader, 500/1 Set Sail.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Fame And Glory is the clear form pick but has to bounce back from a one-paced show in the Arc. If he fails to do so, the rapidly improving MAWATHEEQ can take advantage. |
Fame and glory is price gapper here and we must remember the Arc had some of the world's best horses in a 20 runner competitive race so maybe he can be forgiven that run? .7 to place- an air of pessimism in the market?
305 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Velvet Flicker, 9/2 Big Bad Billy Bob, 6/1 Boragh Jamal, 7/1 Jumbo Steps, 33/1 Bartragh Island, Classy Lady, Emly Wizard, 50/1 Ruby Suesday.
Like the 830 Dundalk yesterday, we have a clear favourite in an 8 runner race with 4 horses 33/1 or bigger 1.11 to place
415 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tabassum, 5/1 Distinctive, 7/1 Champagnelifestyle, 8/1 Dubawi Heights, 12/1 Silver Rock, 14/1 Atasari, Gibraltar Blue, 20/1 Astrophysical Jet, Music Show, 25/1 Bint Doyen, 66/1 Paleo.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Hard not to be taken with the way TABASSUM won her Group 3 over C&D a fortnight ago and she is preferred to Distinctive, the other Group winner in the field. |
Price gapper here, course and distance winner, recent run, but on a hatrick and winning sequences end sometime, but today? 1.19 to place
450 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Crystal Capella, 9/2 Ashalanda, 5/1 High Heeled, 6/1 Baila Me, 8/1 Arwaah, 10/1 Ave, 14/1 Charity Belle, 33/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, Snoqualmie Girl, 50/1 Saphira´s
AnoFire,
| DIOMED VERDICT: The return to this trip will suit CRYSTAL CAPELLA who was far from disgracd when suffering her first defeat over middle distances in the Prix de l'Opera 13 days ago on her first start since pipping Dar Re Mi at York back in May. Another price gapper in a quality field. Has won 3 races by a short head and neck suggesting the horse is at the business end but may not be win only material, but a good place bet? 1.44 to place 720 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Inpursuitoffreedom, 5/1 Angelena Ballerina, 6/1 One Cool Poppy, 8/1 Dubai Phantom, 10/1 Chichina, 20/1 Ajara Boy, Noverre Over There, 33/1 Brooklands Bay, 66/1 Crystal Bridge.
Price gapper here, but at time of writing Angelina is at 3/1 signifying support bit too early FOOTBALL Readers of the eletter will already have an idea of those games I will be focussing on. 1230 - St Johnstone v rangers 1.48 Rangers - we saw with Shelbourne yesterday that it's all about trying to justify the price before we back teams - thank God I didn't get involved with Shelbourne -they managed a 0-0, 4th draw in 5 matches. The recent 0-0's for Rangers ( 2 away from home) were ended with a 2-1 Old Firm win. BUT let's look at the 2 away games - does this signfiy frustrating taactics from home teams to try to nick a no score draw? And will St Johnstone do it today? St Johnstone have drawn 2 and lost one 3-2 at home this season. Against Old Firm, beaten by Celtic 5-2 at Celtic, so we can get a line in to what Rangers, in an ideal world, should be able to do. I am still worried about Rangers 2 0-0 aways which may lead to preference for laying St Johnstone? 1pm HJK Helsinki v Jaro - 1.38 -not too convincing home form to justify my support 2pm - Botiv v CSKA Sofia - 1.22 - a good form line could be the Lokomotiv Plovdiv result - Botiv lost 3-0 to them, CSKA beat them 5-0 away from home. Odds look about right here for away win Arsenal v Birmingham - 1.17 - the last time the Arse were this price at home they won easily enough - have scored 14 goals in 3 games at home.For Brum, it's 7 games settled by a single goal and Man Utd ,the only top 4 side they have played ,won 1-0. Could be an afternoon where the Birmingham bus gets parked? Expectation here is attack versus defence, but who will out? Celtic v Motherwell 1.27 - Motherwell drew 0-0 with Rangers recently so we can guage their strength that way BUT this was going through Rangers sticky 0-0 patch. Celtic ,bar St Johnstone at home, seem to only just do enough winning 2-1 at home 3pm - Man Utd v Bolton - wholly unconvincing at home and requiring a never ending clock on a couple of occasions, -Bolton are on a promising 4 game run -winning 2 away from home and drawing 2 at home. Against top 4 side Liverpool, they lost 2-3. Tricky one to weight up, you would expect a United win,-Bolton have scored in all of their last 5 games so may augur well for an over 1.5 goal bet? 330 -Rubin v Khimki 1.11 - can Rubin be trusted after losing 1-2 at home when ultra short priced last time out. Opponents have lost 10 away from home. Previous to the 1-2, Rubin scored bucket loads at home and a return to that could be the tonic. Might be another goal bet game? 5pm - Diynamo Kiev v Obolon - 5 wins at home and have the head to head advantage here 545 - Ajax v Willem 11 - 1.16 - 3rd from top v 2nd from bottom - only 2 games have been under 2.5 goals for Ajax and they have gone 5 games on the trot over 2.5 goals 6pm - Lyon v Sochaux - 1.35 - excellent run of form from Lyon with only 2 draws amongst the wins, and Sochaux usually lose against top 4 sides 615 - Monsanto v Benfica - 1.07 away from home - Portuguses cup game and looks like goals here 7pm Real Madrid v Vallodollid- beware no Ronaldo and I think he is such a vital player for a punter to have on their side.Vollodollid have not played any of the big boys yet, and have lost 3, drawn 2 and won 1 815 - Porto v Sertananse - 1.06 - again Cup game and goals expected |
In a very competitive day we can hope horses such as fame and glory give of their best, but the market suggest otherwise.
225 NEWMARKET - ultra competitive but Steinbeck is 2.28 to place - has the pacesetter but again we have the niggle of a big field of quality horses
240 CHELTENHAM - Picture this is included simply because it's Walsh/Nicholls - 3 are 33/1 or bigger - 4th fav is non runner - picture this is backed into 7/4 in places
305 CORK - Velvet flicker is 1.11 to place ,but this is only 5 furlongs and any tardiness will be punished. Still, has the profile of an "ideal " race - 8 runners, odds on fav, plenty of "perceived" outsiders
FOOTBALL
2pm- Botiv v CSKA Sofia -1.22 - I am taken by the form line re Plovdiv
As I write, St Johnstone have taken the lead against Rangers so enhanced bets ahoy!
Arsenal v Birmingham - 1.17 - scored bucket loads in all home games and only fallen foul of the Manchester sides. Brum likely to be stubborn but breakthrough should be made eventually?
Ajax v Willem - 1.11 over 1.5 goals has a great chance of success. Playing at home, the hope is Ajax score first ,then the match odds market will appeal from a trading perspective.
Lyon - 1.35 at home to Sochaux should prevail - team news very important as I would want to see Lisandro Lopez playing
ONE A DAY
Well, at present I am involved in the St Johnstone v Rangers match, backing Rangers at 2.7 being 1-0 down after 5 minutes. Fingers crossed this prevails and my one a day will be in the bag.
Cheltenham's 240 has all the big boys out-1.35 for Picture this is a great price and I would trade in running given it's the jumps
Ajax 1.4 over 2.5 goals looks a great price too, and is tradeable as he's in running.
As I say, I am involved in Rangers v St Johnstone enhanced bet. IF this comes off, that's my one a day bet in the bag
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