OPPORTUNITY = breaking news last night was that Bolton had some players out with swine flu, like Blackburn Rovers and with that news Chelsea suddenly became very attractive indeed and promptly spanked them. Flexibility should be a key to betting.
This flexibility was at hand in the 340 Musselburgh - the straight 8 reduced to 7 and still 3 places and Lost soldier 3 strong in the market. I place backed him given this NEW INFORMATION and he came 2nd - this flexibiity of course is not available when writing a blog (or trying to thanks to brilliant Irish broadband)
Something to bear in mind for those with the ability to follow the live betting
Enhanced bets? Just Celtic - backed them at 5.1 when a goal down but they didn't equalise. The great thing though was at 5.1 you don't have to risk too much to get a decent return should they equalise. I also layed Hearts when at 1.2 just incase there was a late equaliser. Still a value bet for a side 2/5 at the off to be backing them at 4/1.
130 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Pamak D´Airy, 5/4 Border Reiver, 14/1 Desert Maze, 25/1 Ellandshe.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Winning hurdler PAMAK D'AIRY has accrued plenty of worthwhile chase form and rates the one to beat. |
We'll get a lot of these race types during the jumps - seeming 2 horse races and interesting froma place only perspective given the likelihood of the front 2 dominating all things being equal of course. A beginners chase this one- 1.14 and 1.21 the front 2 to place in an illiquid market at time of writing
150 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ashkazar, 6/5 Sunnyhillboy, 9/1 Oscar Royal, 20/1 Like A Duke.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SUNNYHILLBOY is proven over the trip and can beat Ashkazar. |
2nd fav out and of course Ashkazar is now 1/5 given main rival no longer playing.1.08 not to get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race must be considered despite the poor odds.
Been running in class 1's and a beginners chase -hurdles form in better company should ensure a smooth transition - not run since Cheltenham but Timmy Murphy retains the ride and knows the horse having ridden in his last outings
You'll see a couple of potential bets in maiden hurdles today that I have omitted. I see maiden hurdles really as laying propositions on shorties. It's a maiden and they have to go over obstacles!!
230 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Command Marshal, 2/1 Gobejolly, 8/1 Tantobie, 14/1 Graze On And On, West End Wonder, 20/1 Abbey Minster, Loom, Quick Man, Safin, 25/1 Witness Run, 33/1 Lewis´s World,
| DIOMED VERDICT: GOBEJOLLY has shown ability over hurdles but looks the type to improve a good deal for her new and in-form connections. She's taken to beat Command Marshal. |
There was a nice 14/1 winner for the 16/1 system yesterday and herre we have a contender in Abbey Minster, now 6/1 in places
310 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sirocco Breeze, 5/1 Beat The Bell, Spirit Of Sharjah, 7/1 Cumana Bay, Glow Star, 10/1 Red Somerset, 14/1 Beckermet, Desert Dreamer, 16/1 Salient.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GLOW STAR, a triple winner in South Africa this year, has slipped to a fair mark and is worth siding with on this AW debut. |
So consistent are Godolphin at present, that Sirocco must be accounted for here 1.48 to place
320 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Get Me Out Of Here, 4/1 Ballybach, 9/1 Civil Servant, 12/1 Rathrockscourt, The Darling Boy, 14/1 Southerness, 20/1 Brainwave, 25/1 Calaficial.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GET ME OUT OF HERE has every chance of maintaining his unbeaten record. |
Fav is out and the race is now 5 runners and still 3 places which is great news -good probability race this one - any horse to place has to only beat 2 to place - default selection is Ballybach who was the nearest to Get me in the betting forecast - 1.18 is a good price for a probability race such as this but with the perceived outsiders at only 9/1 this shows that none can be confidently discounted
400 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Chapel Flowers, 7/1 Persian Prince, 8/1 Panthers Run, Toulouse Express, 16/1 Chigorin, Monty´s Boy, 20/1 Copper´s Gold, Master Papa.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CHAPEL FLOWERS made an impressive debut for Tim Vaughan last week and can defy a penalty |
Now 1/2 - - - 7/1 - th best price gap of the day so far -the straight 8 so 3 places - 32 length winner last time out and a penalty t carry this time but the market likes Chapel's chances. 1.14 to place - 4 horses are 16/1 or bigger and hpefully play little part
410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Padmini, 5/1 Mirabella, Roxy Flyer, 7/1 Dubai Media, Evening Tale, 10/1 Faited To Pretend, Queen´s Envoy, 20/1 Mirror Lake, Sweet Clementine, 33/1 Allannah Abu, Celebrian, On Khee, Strait Street, 66/1 French Fantasy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The one that takes the eye is Godolphin's newcomer PADMINI, who is out of an Irish Oaks winner. Her stable has a tremendous record at this course and she can continue the good run of the yard. |
Another Godolphin newcomer here with Frankie up - they don't always get it right though -one newcomer yesterday ran as green as grass and was well beaten - they are short by reputation - the likelihood is that the horse is going to run well but there's always that niggle with youngsters debuting 1.37 to place
420 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Star Of Angels, 7/1 Squinch, 12/1 Casual Garcia, 20/1 Son Of Flame, 25/1 Sazeilla, 40/1 Star Of Memory, 100/1 Iveragh Lad, Mrs Onc.
| DIOMED VERDICT: STAR OF ANGELS should find this well within his compass. |
Huge price gap here but remember what I said earlier about maiden hurdles!! Still his achievements when last seen is far better than his opponents - been running almost exclusively in class 1 and class 2 company
1.22 the win and 1.06 the place
530 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Todber, 10/1 Leading Edge, Yanza, 12/1 Charles Darwin, Mayoman, Milldown Story, Shakespeare´s Son, 14/1 Timber Treasure, 16/1 Golden Dixie, Loyal Royal, Perlachy, Romantic Queen, 20/1 Weekend Away.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TODBER escapes a penalty for her recent win and will be hard to beat in this company. |
A day for huge price gappers and here's Todber, who falls into my price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap system, and these have been suprememly consistent from a win and place perspective.1.35 to place
600 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Daniella De Bruijn, 6/1 Dontbugthebunny, 7/1 Alfalevva, Saint Thomas, Underworld Dandy, 10/1 Mary Helen, Noverre Over There, 14/1 Mary Celest, 20/1 Desert Aisling, Press To Reset, 50/1 As Brave As You, 66/1 Red Farasi, Typical Female.
| DIOMED VERDICT: NOVERRE OVER THERE has a bit to find at the weights but looks sure to improve now asked to tackle this trip. |
It doesn't rain but it pours! Another price gapper but I am put off by the class 2 year old claimer part!! 1.28 to place
FOOTBALL
Cup games rules need to be known before involvement as was seen with AZ Alkmaar yesterday - these cup games go into extra time and it was 2-2 full time which means AZ didn't have to sweat it to get a winner in full time.
Also Spanish Cup games are 2 legged affairs so no immediate urgency in 1st game for the giants. Pleasing to see BArca, though, win their match with a completely revamped side and Pedro looking first class striker
Do keep an eye out on the forums for late team news -as mentioned it was on the Betfair Forum where I found out about Bolton swine flu befoore Chelsea's game and reacted accordingly
Gaz Metan Craiova v CFR Cluj
1.31 away from home - I know Cluj from their Champions LEague early stage exploits - a handy team but we are battling with motivation factor and team news with all of these cup games and it's dooubly difficult with Eurpoean teams as compared with England
Thrasivoulos F. v AEK
1.37 away side- one of the bigger Greek side and Pana won yesterday - should give a good account - I would be happier laying Thras
U.A.E. U17 v Spain U17
1.41 away from home - now am I missing something - this is Spanish youth versus the ,erm, world footballing giants of the United Arab Emirates, 1.41 looks very tasty indeed. I believe this game is played in Africa so perhaps the UAE will be better used to conditions, but surely the Spanish boys set up must be far more professional and the players they can chosse surely have a better pedigree and training for the job.
Hobro v AaB
1.23 away side - Danish Cup
Dordrecht v Ajax
1.28 away side - this will probably go to extra time if a draw at full time so bear in mind the strong favs don't really have to bust a gut as they have the safety net of extra time
A team well known enough that we can check team news
Inter v Palermo
1.49 Inter - interesting stat from the Racing Post - Jose has not lost at home for 122 games - what a stat!! But Racing Post warn that Palermo are on a good run at present - this is a seria a fixture and not a cup game so will be full strength sides - Palermo 5 game unbeaten run and beat Juve at Palermo 2-0 which should sound a warning bell for the sides at the top of the league. It is the fact they can beat Juve which means they have the capability to be pains in the arses to Inter Milan tonight.
But dare we oppose Inter? I would lay opponents at home until this unbeaten home run ends
It is such an impressive stat
SHORTLIST
150 STRATFORD - Ashkazar has only one horse to beat to place but is priced - 1.08 -accordingly
320 STRATFORD - another great probability race with 5 runners and 3 places - I opted for Ballybach as the default choice as he was originally 2nd fav
400 NEWCASTLE - Chapel flowers expected to run very well under a penalty - 8 runners and 3 places
420 STRATFORD - Star of angels looks primed to win and the odds tell you s much
530 WOLVES -Todber is a classic price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap and these are usually so consistent. There was a bit of 1.35 available to place which I thought was too high and I have taken it-I hope I have guaged the market right this time and the price reduces nearer the off. - jockey a slight concern but a look at his recent rides and he has placed at least in the last 4 races which is encouraging , so with a horse expected to win, he has a great chance today
UAE under 17 v Spain under 17 - 1.41 - just seems a huge price for me - concern that the youngsters of Spain played a lot with 10 men against the USA - how much will that have taken out of them in the African heat?
Dortrecht v Ajax - 1.28 - the away side are reknowned goalscorers but the key is the team this evening - 1.15 over 1.5 goals and tradeable
Inter v Palermo - 1.27 over 1.5 goals would be the call here given the potential threat of Palermo on recent form. If they score then it's a goal backers dream given that Inter, with that home record to maintain, shoould equalise.
ONE A DAY
Horse racing - mostly jumps today and as ever we have the potential of fallers to factor in. At time of writing I have already backed Todber to place at 1.35 and it is now 1.28 which is promising. I backed for £100 so if the price reduces to allow a 1.10 bet then I'll take it - I have 5 hourse or so!
150 STRATFORD - Ashkazar at 1.08 to place looks superb - needs a clear round and not to be beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race - crap odds but the strongest probability bet of the day. Better odds with Todber at near 1.28 putting faith in the class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper which has failed only once to place in months now.
Remember to factor in flexibility if you can follow the live markets and make your one a day choice that way.
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