French game went as predicted 0-0 at half time allowed any enhanced bets fans to push up the odds on France slightly ( Malta's recent 1-0 losses hinted they kept things tight but eventually succumbed) and France got the breakthrough 2nd half and managed a 2nd goal. So do note the Malta under 21's at home - they are hard to break down.
Trojan Warrior just goes to show that ONE A DAY betting has benefits. Backed into 1/2 as if defeat was out of the question and yet he does not even place.
Start with football today as there is plenty of time before racing begins
Russia under 21 v Faroe u21 - 1.04 signals goals again - Faroes a different proposition at home and I would be reluctant to get involved at home, but away they should be easily beaten. -over 2.5 goals is a outhwatering 1.25 given the match odds. 1.2 for halftime/fulltime is also enticing. Can Russia score a goal in the first 45 minutes to no reply?
130 - Malawi v Ivory Coast 1.47 - would want to see Drogba et al playing ( and why shouldn't they given this is a World Cup match.
3pm - Moldova u21 v Andorra u21 - 1.14 - a battle of 2 ,erm, footballing powerhouses - simply put, Andorra must be bad if Moldova is 1.14 ( collector's item this price for Moldova - gather the family round and show them, because it's very difficult to find a side worse than Moldova)
330- Cameroon v Togo - 1.33 - Togo should get nothing here in an ideal world but research needed if getting involved
445 - Luxembourg v Switzerland - 1.13
5pm - Armenia v Spain 1.2 - could be a gift at 7pm! Need to make sure all the big boys are out for Spain , and they should be in this World Cup qualifier, BUT is this a must win for Spain-that is what we need to research - we need a motivated side in order to justify backing
515pm - Ukraine v England - Sports stats gave us a 91% stat -over 2.5 goals in England's recent matches. Will this continue?
8pm - France v Faroe Islands - 1.01 - unbackable really , but enticing 1.18 about halftime/fulltime. France have been very poor indeed and inconsistent enough to not really be a punter's pal. Faroes have Brian Kerr at the helm, coming off the back of a home win against Lithuania. Bookies expect goals. As said previously, at home, Faroes really are far better and held France to a 1-0 loss , but away? Well we need to check the stats for their away performances
8pm - Israel v Moldova -1.17 - held Greece to 1-1 ( Greece scored first -I was trading this game) but away from home ,Moldova should revert to type. Hope to see Benayoun in the Israeli side as he is in top class form.
8pm - Republic of Ireland v Italy - I'll be watching this game - Italy v Italy pretty much with Trap at the helm. Look out for a snooze fest and under 2.5 goals. 1.07 for under 4.5 goals looks great, and 1.21 over 3.5 goals even more so.
The game may change tack dependent on the result of the Cyprus v Bulgaria game as this will have a bearing on the table. Italy need a draw, and Ireland need NOT TO LOSE.
845 - Portugal v Hungary - 1.16 - like France, the Portugeuse have not really been reliable short priced back material. A must win really and we need Ronny et al to sparkle.
11pm - Argentina- v Peru 1.13 - Dayglow Madonna couldn't manage his way out of a paper bag, and his Argentinian side have been an absolute shambles , which is a great shock given the wealth of talent available in the side. Lumped in with France and Portugal as punter's unreliable sides at the moment.Need to do some research on Peru, especially away from home in order to see whether the 1.13 is justifiable for the Argies.
11pm - Mexico v El Salvador - 1.18 - have tended to be reliable at short odds the Mexicans
3am - Costa Rica v Trinidad and Tobago - 1.31 - need to research this -do Costa Rica need to win - Trinidad are all but out of the World Cup trail now after defeat to USA recently - we need to see motivation with the COsta Rica side and a look at their recent performances
So plentiful betting opportunities in the World Cup qualifiers, and generally, I find that the markets are an accurate reflection of what will happen. I guess it is because each side, naturally, has the best player available to play in each position and big nations perform well against the lesser nations.
155 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tito Bustillo, 4/1 It´s A Date, 8/1 Shalamiyr, 10/1 Otto Quercus, Silver Point, 11/1 Kilshannig, Stage Acclaim, 12/1 Kidlat, 14/1 Romance Dance, 16/1 Horseshoe Reef, 20/1 Orana Conti, 25/1 Kimi, 33/1 Baltimore Patriot, 50/1 Kelly Manor, 100/1 Immaculate Red, Lady Jinks.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The paper credentials of Paul Nicholls' hurdling debutant TITO BUSTILLO are persuasive and he may be the answer. |
THE partnership of the jumps season begin with Tito Bustillo, and we have to wander how much of the short price is down to Walsh/Nicholls or actual ability as the horse is a debutant in this maiden hurdle 1.55 to place
210 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Noble Alan, 4/1 Knockavilla, 8/1 Description, The Panama Kid, 12/1 Yachvili, 20/1 Below The Deck, Fly To Dubai, 33/1 Lindseyfield Lodge.
| DIOMED VERDICT: NOBLE ALAN produced some quality performances as a hurdler and is fancied to make a smooth transition to fences today. |
Nice tidy race for place only backing - 8 runners , 2 33/1 shots, one 25/1 shot who should reduce the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place. A beginners chase so a ? over the horses' abilities to handle the change of codes, but Noble Alan's place chances made easier if the outsiders run as outsiders 1.18 to place
245 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Quivvy Bridge, 11/4 Give A Little, 9/2 Josephine Malines, 6/1 Stuff Of Dreams, 10/1 Honeygrove, 25/1 Kinharvie, 33/1 Can´t Remember, 50/1 Elusive Swallow.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Dual course winner QUIVVY BRIDGE has been performing consistently well as a hurdler and is fancied to defy this big weight. |
7 runners now and Stuff the non runner. Quivvy has a 7lb claimer onboard to offset the weight. Again 2 horses at 25/1 and 33/1 who we would hope play no part, reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 to place ( need to check on Betfair as 7 runners now) 1.15 to place
250 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 City Theatre, 7/2 Pugilist, 11/2 Paddy Live, 7/1 Qianshan Leader, 9/1 Love Of Tara, 10/1 Paddy The Pirate, 25/1 Papradon, The Boffinator, 40/1 Departed, 66/1 Fareeha.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PUGILIST has the best hurdling form and ought to run well. |
"hard to beat" says Diomed " if taking to hurdling - McCoy on for O'Neill 1.16 to place
300 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gullible Gordon, 3/1 Theatrical Moment, 9/2 Carrick Oscar, 6/1 Bradley Boy, Irish Legend, 10/1 Postmaster.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GULLIBLE GORDON can enhance his stable's fine record in this if jumping proficiently. |
Nicholls/Walsh again and backed into odds on now - only 2 places alas 1.4 to place
420 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Lay Claim, 7/2 Lost In The Moment, 8/1 Karaka Jack, 14/1 Caldercruix, Taste The Victory, 20/1 Count Bertoni, 25/1 Batgirl, Roman Sioux, 40/1 Prince James, 50/1 Meetings Man, Tewin Wood, Woldgate, 100/1 Ocean Rosie.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This could be a great opportunity for the Newbury second LAY CLAIM, with the Noseda-trained newcomer Lost In The Moment the most plausible danger. |
2/5 now this fav - again only one run - watch out for a market move on Tewin Wood, now 14/1 in places 1.11 to place
430 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Shadow Dancer, 7/2 Kingsben, 5/1 Mr Logistics, 14/1 Black Apache, 16/1 Brompton Brow, 25/1 Flichity, 40/1 Quelbal, 100/1 Puddington Bear,
| DIOMED VERDICT: SHADOW DANCER is progressive and has every chance of maintaining his unbeaten record. |
Only 3 under 14/1 1.08 to place
745 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Royal Diamond, 5/1 Straits Of Hormuz, 6/1 Onemix, 7/1 Ramora, 12/1 Battle Planner.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL DIAMOND has plenty going for him, not least proven stamina in a race in which none of his rivals have yet to go this far. |
Sir Mark Prescott has done this all season with his handicappers - run up a winning sequence. Royal is on a 4 timer and we face the dilemma - the winning run will end, particularly with progressive weight penalties, but why 8/11 then today? Expectation of squeezing one more win? 1.28 to place
SHORTLIST
Russia under 21 v Faroes under 21 - 1.25 for over 2.5 goals is very enticing - not in running alas so not tradeable
Malawi v Ivory Coast - 1.47 - surely the Ivorians have too much here or am I missing something? Head to heads are d- is dominated by Ivory Coast - is Drogba playing?
Armenia v Spain 1.2 - Spain have already qualified for the World Cup with 2 games to spare( dead rubber match today?) - head to heads - comprehensive previous defeats of Armenia - David Villa out and only complacency will beat Spain this evening
France v Faroes - 2 draws for the French is a predictably poor campaign ,but surely should have too much this evening. The question is " will any enhanced bets come in - ie will France lead at half time? Can they score 3 goals or more for over 2.5 goals?"
Israel v Moldova - head to heads not that emphatic for 1.17 shots. Form line through Luxembourg ( Israel beat them 7-0, Moldova drew 0-0 at home ) - Israel need the win tonight to put them in provisional 2nd place ( without Greece and Lithuania's results accounted for)
Republic of Ireland V Italy - determinant on Bulgaria's result against Cyprus, but under 3.5 goals is very enticing at around 1.2
210 HEXHAM - Noble Alan at 1.18 should give us a good run for our money here
300 CHEPSTOW - Gullible Gordon now 8/11 , but only 2 places
ONE A DAY
Will be from the footy today as I find the odds more reliable and there's no chance of fallers (well apart from Drogba!)
If Burkino Faso have won their 2 games against Malawi, and Ivory Coast scored 5 against Burkino Faso, then surely The Ivorians should beat Malawi? 1.47 is above my usual odds but I'm going to chance it - alas it's not in running. Ivory coast need just one point from their next 2 games to guarantee qualification but with the forward line they possess should score at least against Malawi
It's a risk given the general lack of motivation as Ivorians only need 1 point.
Ireland v Italy under 3.5 goals would be a safer bet ( as it is in running and the Ivory Coast game is not (turning that into a straight bet rather than giving us the trading option)
The Ivory Coast is my personal choice and is not really in keeping with rock solid one a dayers where it would be a shock if the team /bet lost ( here it would not really be a shock as Ivory Coast only need 1 point to qualify in 2 games so this is not a MUST win)
There are loads of opportunities today so you can easily pick your own alternatives.
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