Great day for my each way idea although it wasn't over jumps, it was in a bumper.The 520 Plumpton had 8 runners and 3 places. I chose the 3rd and 5th live market favourites each way, and pro pell won at 14/1!. All it takes is a couple of the market leaders to run under par.
Particle - well I couldn't resist.
| Particle | 1.75 | 100.00 | Back | 19-Oct-09 16:52 | 75.26 | |
| Particle | 1.17 | 149.79 | Lay | 19-Oct-09 16:54 | -25.47 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | 75.26 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | -25.47 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 49.79 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.7%: | 2.34 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 47.45 | |||||
Nantes - I was expecting a home win, so 2-0 down inside 11 minutes means what? Yes, enhanced bets ahoy! Nantes eventually gained parity in the 62nd minute allowing for a nice enhanced bet trade.
Fulham won with a goal in either half. I was so near getting the 0-0 half time up, as first goal was on the cusp of half time. Hull did not manage to score but over 1.5 goals came in and the lay of Hull came in.
That's the great thing about doing a blog - I know which races and football matches to look at in time order each day and decide my betting decisions on spec.
230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Baby Dottie, 5/2 Pan American, 7/2 Gifted Apakay, 5/1 Sunarise, 16/1 Tuscan Gold, 25/1 Antoella, 50/1 Classical Piece, Lady Christie, Show Willing,
| DIOMED VERDICT: PAN AMERICAN pulled clear of the third when narrowly going down at Warwick last time and he can go one better here. |
Only 4 under 20/1 but again these are 2 year olds and this is a maiden - top 4 between 1.42 and 1.6 in place market then a jump to 2.8 next best.
240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rebel Du Maquis, 9/2 Adeus Ayrton, 9/1 Strategic Approach, Tayarat, 11/1 Kauto The Roc, Know Your Place, Robo, 14/1 Holden Caulfield, Superius, 20/1 Over The Hill, Parazar, 28/1 Kilshannig,
33/1 Bankers Bonus, Cricket Boy, Zaif, 50/1 Cardinal James, Lord Raspberry, 66/1 Shadow Wood.
| DIOMED VERDICT: REBEL DU MAQUIS was runner-up in three starts in France and looks the type that Paul Nicholls will place to advantage in novice hurdles. Adeus Ayrton is among others to consider. |
We're going to see this a lot this season. Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls Rebel du Maquis is a huge price gapper in the live market at 10/11 - - - - 8/1 1.29 to place Horse has only run in soft and heavy - it's good at Exeter - a possible weakness?
310 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Tataniano, 11/2 Award Winner, 8/1 Manmoon, 16/1 Hereweareagain, 40/1 Like A Duke.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Paul Nicholls won this race in 2004 and 2006 and has another smart chasing prospect in TATANIANO, who quickly progressed to a rating of 147 over hurdles. |
Nicholls/Walsh again here on a horse now 1/5 -all the horse needs to do is stay on his feet and complete and hope to gain 1st or 2nd place.One horse at 33/1 can hopefully be ignored 1.11 - a typical price for heavy odds on shots over jumps in small fields ( the 3rd such raced like this so far)
410 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Ballydub, 5/1 Kilvergan Boy, 9/1 Hunters Ploy, 16/1 Plane Painter.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Hunters Ploy and Kilvergan Boy probably have some potential now they are sent chasing but BALLYDUB, who is rated 145 over hurdles, should be very difficult to beat barring any accidents. |
Let the market do the work for you then justify the odds. Another chase debutant like Tatatiano. Not been out since 12th March 2009 so we have to factor this in. Still, 2 places and only 2 horses to beat to place. And Diomed reminds us of the obstacles we face - " barring any accidents" 1.17 is quite big for Ballydub, probably because of the lay off and the fact this is a chasing debutant
FOOTBALL
Portugeuse under 17 v Georgia under 17 1.30 - again faith in the market here - I just don't know what this young crop are like - can't be as hopeless as the senior squad
Barcelona v Rubin Kazan 1.13 - should be a demolition job. I watched Rubin Kazan at 1.11 on Betfair video at the weekend and at those odds you expect dominance. Far from it. Must be Barca surely?
Debrecen v Fiorentina - 1.48 away side. Debrecen would seem to be out for their depth in this competition and are being found out.
Inter v Dinamo 1.46 - Inter scored 5 (or 6?) at the weekend away from home - a perfect start to the midweek Champions league game.
Liverpool v Lyon 1.9 - Lyon lost at the weekend when odds on at home ( one eye on this perhaps?) -5 for Lyon is a little dismissive. Liverpool tonight are likely to do as they did in the Debrecen game - puff and pant - if no Gerrard or Torres surely 1.9 offers reasonable scope for laying?
745 - Stuttgart v Sevilla - from 2 leagues where goals usually dominate domestic league games. Either this will see goals or fizzle out! Sevilla in good form at present
745 - AZ v Arsenal - 1.55 away - Arsenal have goals goals goals in them but the spectre of their traditional poor displays away in Europe hang over them. AZ Alkmaar usually score bucket loads at home but the Dutch league lacks any quality when compared to the Premiership
SHORTLIST
310 EXETER - Tataniano is battered into 1/5 as I write so 1.11 to place is a good price - not run since April 20099 ( and we will see this a lot early jumps season) Ruby onboard and he's superb and he's riding for the best jumps stable around - a lethal combination
Barcelona v Rubin Kazan - 1.13 - surely this falls into the one a day category as it would be a shock if Barca did not win at home against a Rubin Kazan team who have had trouble disposing of teams in their domestic leagues when priced heavily odds on -odds I suppose can be enhanced with half time bet on Barca
Team news important here - we want to see the big guns out in force, Messi, Henry, Ibramovich. At the weekend, Pedro and another were played at Valencia so the big boys should be fresh.
ONE A DAY
Must be Barca for me - rubbish odds but they deliver with consistency 1.12 win only, 1.15 over 1.5 goals, 1.44 over 2.5 goals, 1.42 half time ( has me salivating that price!!) Betfair have a handicap market up - giving Rubin a 2.5 goal start, and also have the correct score 2 market up which signals goals.
It's unexciting but 1.12 match odds is the safest bet, but 1.42 is a great price for Barca to score in the first half to no reply. 1.44 over 2.5 goals is tradeable. The opposition is not the best and have lost recently 2-1 at home when they were priced 1.15 to win that match
So, safe one a day is 1.12 Barca but if feeling adventurous there's plenty of scope for enhanced bets.
As to the horses, well Tatatiano should dispose of these rivals and it looks as if some big hitters have been backing the horse - 1/5 over jumps is only for those with steel plated underpants. I will be monitoring these races in running and hoping to get involved that way but it must be Barca this evening as the one a day
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