Racy's 3rd place was perfect for place only backers and Godolphin continued their superb end to the flat campaign with 17/2 , 13/2 and 8/11 winners
European Cup games tonight -are they all Carling Cup equivalent?
Eintrecht Trier v FC Koln 1.5 - Bundelsliga opponens away from home. Will be a weelcome distraction from a poor league start for Koln.As ever, today, across Europe, how seriously are these teams taking any Cup game?
IFK Goteborg v Hamsteds - 1.28 - a league match this one and unbeaten at home where they have only failed to score 2 goals on one occasion. HAve scored 2 or more against teams at the foot of the table wherre Hamstads is. 0-0 head to head away to Hamstads may signal teir defensive intent.
Motivation? One point behind Solna at the head of the league - a must win for Goteborg to go on top, albeit briefly, and put the pressure on Solna to reciprocate when they play.
7pm - Athletico Ciudad v Sevilla 1.45 away - Spanish Cup game and team news vital for Sevilla who ,with a full time, will tear this lot apart.
7pm- Standard v Lierse - 1.31 - another Cup game and a strong home side ( 1st teamers) should win
730 - Nantes v laval - 1.68 - with Le Havre winning last time, nantes are priced to respond in this league fixture - word of caution - Laval beat Le HAvre away from home and I put Nantes on a par with them. Majority of Nantes games go over 2.5 goals and ,if in running, this could be a nice neutral bet including both sides. Also, possible enhanced bet as Laval have schown they can score away from home
745 - Barnsely v Man Utd - Fergie couldn't give a rat's arse about this cup -1.5 tells you team news has been factored in. Any involvement will be determined by strength of Man Utd side
745 - Dundee v Rangers - 1.55 - Scottish Cup - you saw with the 1.48 quoted about Rangers at home at the weekend that this signalled a tough match and so it proved. 1.55 away from home means this will be equally so.Dundee are no longer premier league status but this Cup game will, again, hinge on teams chospm - n
Feyenoord v Den Bosch - 1.23 - Dutch Cup game and Feyenoord have goals in them
8pm - Spurs v Everton 1.78 - I would look to goals here as both teams may experiment with their sides
9pm -Alcorcan v Real Madrid - 1.49 - rarely will you see Real Madrid at 1/2 against an unknown side ,and this belies the fact that the team is likely to be fringe players ( although horse face might get a run out?)
One reader made an interesting point. By opting for over 1.5 goals instead of backing a short odds team to win, w are, by default, including BOTH sides as we are betting on goals. BOTH sides are searching for goals and are playing FOR us. This is something to think about. I term this a " neutral " bet as you are not hoping one team only scores. This would have profitted in the famous Barca v Rubin kazan game for example
110 YARMOUTH
| DIOMED VERDICT: The newcomers should be monitored closely in the betting but the one to beat is LONGLINER who shaped nicely on his debut and is the only runner with a Group-race entry (the Derby) |
140 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 London Stripe, 7/2 Mass Rally, 9/2 Swift Return, 13/2 Lileo, 9/1 Notice Given, 11/1 En Fuego, 12/1 Bondage, Eye Of Eternity, 14/1 Seamster, 40/1 No Complaining, 66/1 Astrovenus, 150/1 Dovedon Diva.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Mass Rally and Swift Return command some respect on paper but the once-raced LONDON STRIPE, whose trainer has won three of the last five renewals of this contest, probably has greater potential. |
Again it's that word " potential" and London Stripe, a son of Rock of Gibraltar, is fancied here 1.22 to place
210 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Landowner, 9/2 Dormer Fleet, Scottish Boogie, 13/2 Pictures, 10/1 Hellenio, 12/1 Amno Dancer, 14/1 Emma Dora, Rosedale, 66/1 Carlcol Girl.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Landowner is progressing nicely and could take plenty of beating under a penalty but SCOTTISH BOOGIE is an interesting alternative on his nursery debut. |
more 2 year olds but Godolphin at head of the market and they cannot be ignored in current form 1.2 to place
240 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Vito Volterra, 9/2 Ibmab, 5/1 Ragsta, Whipperway, 8/1 Little Perisher, Pearl Of Kent, 10/1 Rufus Roughcut, 16/1 Better Be Blue, 20/1 Chorus Boy, 28/1 Cygnet Committee, Mrs Puff, 40/1 Walnut Rise, 66/1 Man In The Mirror.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There isn't a great deal between several of these on paper and the marginal verdict goes to RAGSTA who was beaten only inside the last furlong in a 1m nursery here last week. |
A 2 year old claimer and only of interest for the move for the fav into 6/4 -----6/1 but a race for me of little appeal 1.44 to place
310 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hayzoom, 11/2 Lion Mountain, Parvaaz, 13/2 Bullet Train, Egyptology, Snoqualmie Star, 8/1 Comradeship, 14/1 Sory, 25/1 Kathleen Frances, 40/1 Zenarinda, 66/1 Flag Of Glory.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There are several well-bred newcomers who could prove up to the task and the betting should be revealing. HAYZOOM, the only runner with a Pattern-race entry, is one of the likelier sorts. |
lion Mountain now 7/4 and Bullet train 2/1 - both debutants and both 2 year olds (again!)
Lion is the Godolphin horse and I have already highlighted their strong form at present 1.29 and 1.36 to place illiquid markets so may rise
325 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Pandorama, 5/1 Clan Tara, 6/1 Mick The Man, 7/1 Oligarch Society, 10/1 Square Sphere, 12/1 Model Athlete, Power Of Attorney, Yes Ben, 14/1 Adenauer, Fort George, Shan Ros, 20/1 Canal Bank, Saddlers Storm, 25/1 Borolee, Winterdown Star, 33/1 Supreme Seabird, Two Jackets Joe, 50/1 Alwaysandforever,
A group 1 and group2 novice hurdle winner, albeit in small fields, making his chasing debut today and like Dunguib, looks to be a better horse class wise than the opposition. Now 2/5 and soft ground but has won on soft and heavy 1.16 to place
410 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Racing Hero, 7/2 Deportment, 6/1 Too Tall, 8/1 Starkat, 17/2 Green Agenda, 9/1 Naheell, 10/1 Panto Princess, 25/1 Group Leader, Mt Kintyre.
| DIOMED VERDICT: RACING HERO was firmly back on track when making all and winning well at Doncaster on Saturday. A similar display should make him tough to beat under his penalty with potential improver Deportment the main threat. |
4 length front running win under this jockey last time. Penalty to carry but fancied to be competitive again 1.35 to place - I have the feeling that if Frankie does his front running today which was so successful last time, that both the win and place prices will fall incrementally as the race progresses. 2.72 to back to win, and to nick ourselves a 1.2 equivalent bet ,we only need the horse to hit 2.52 in the win market.
This is a bet where I would back now, and place my lay bet at 2.45 ( to compensate for greening up on all selections) and hope that Dettori gets the horse out in front for sufficient time to allow the price to shorten in running
425 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Vertige Dore, 3/1 Summit Meeting, 7/2 Perfect Smile, 8/1 Val San Vito, 10/1 Get It On, 12/1 Al Ferof, Vardas Partner, 14/1 Age Benefit, Burgundy Boy, 16/1 Courtly Conduct, Ragdoll, 20/1 Bramley Man, Sonic Beat, 25/1 Rebel Princess, Wango.
Paddy Power has this one at 8/11 and it's there by reputation - the Mullins yard - no Ruby on board though and this is a bumper so there might be some likely ones at bigger prices here.28 to place
SHORTLIST
It's a difficult day today under both codes. In the football, almost exclusively we are greeted with Cup games and the sensible thing to do in all of these games is to wait for team news on the fancies.
This holds true for Sevilla, Real madrid, Man Utd and Rangers - we cannot select any team just yet as we do not know the team news. Real Madrid would be the most interesting for me given their apparent strength in depth and big price of 1.49 given their opponents are relatively unknown - a strong side and I'll be on
From a horse racing perspective, it's pretty much 2 year old races, maidens, claimers and nurseries - and we simply cannot put maximum faith in 2 year olds as by their very nature they're still learning.
1) IFK GOTEBORG V HAMSTADS - this would be my first pick today as this is a league match and the home team are very motivated to get to the top of the league, which they will do with a win. A cover of 0-0 if I was backing , given recent head to heads, and perhaps a visit to over 1.5 goals? 1.25 over 1.5 goals and 21 for correct score 0-0 which means if you backed over 1.5 goals for £100 you would need to back correct score 0-0 for £5.50
2)NANTES V LAVAL - over 1.5 goals again here given Laval's shock win at Le Havre last time. nantes have almost exclusively managed 2 goals a game and this is another league match so no question marks regarding weakened teams and lack of motivation - NOT IN RUNNING
3) 110 YARMOUTH - Longliner was 1 length 3rd placed last time out, has the hint of a Hard to beat selection, and has a group entry ( so well thought of). Ryan Moore in the plate, only 5 under 20/1 so hopefully a lot of deadwood here.Drop in class to class 5
And now the negatives - 2 year old maiden race - Strike a deal and Astromoon potential market movers at big prices - only had the one run and automatically expected to reproduce that form ( and this cannot be guaranteed with any 2 year old)
1.11 to place is strong in the place market
4) 325 PUNCHESTOWN - Pandorama has done it over hurdles at the highest level and begins his chasing career as red hot favourite ( and why not - wins in group 1 and group 2 company over hurdles attest to the horse's strong formlines)
Has not been out since February 2009 and we saw with Dunguib last time, he may be a little keen in the early stages and this may produce the odd mistake.
1.16 to place is reasonable given the quality of the horse but note that he has not been out recently and takes on a new code today. Still, THE horse in the field
5) 410 YARMOUTH - Racing hero is interesting, if only from a trading angle. As explained above I would seek to back in the win market, hope Frankie reverts to front running tactics, and get out at a prearranged price To create a 1.20 return with £100, I would back at 2.74 for £100 and lay off at 2.28 for £120.74
2.28 is a little short and it's quite a move down to that price -that's a slight niggle - a risky bet if the horse does not run well early. Hinges purely on the tactics this bet and the anticipation of front running
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1)The one footy game of interest at time of writing ( this will change of course as team news for the teams mentioned in the cup games becomes available) is the Goteborg game. We have the important Motivation factor here in this league game and I would go for over.1.5 goals with a cover of the 0-0 correct score in the betfair market incase there is a replay of their last head to head. This takes the 1.25 bet down to 1.20 in real terms . The match is in running and the hope is for an early goal.
2) Real Madrid of great interest if seeing strong team news
3)325 PUNCHESTOWN - Pandorama is head and shoulders above this lot and w have to overcome an absence and a change to chase fences today. Soft ground is no concern on past form for this group winner and this is likely to be a return on the start of a campaign which will take in the big races over the coming months culminating at Cheltenham.1.16 at present and my confidence is based on those group 1 wins
ONE A DAY
It's such a difficult day today - nothing solid and all based on "potential" and team news in the footy. At time of writing, I think Pandorama should place ,but there's risks with this bet too - a long absence and new code, but I hope croup 1 and group2 winning form cement some class to the horse.
If you don't fancy this ( it is not really a solid nailed on one a day bet given the niggles) then hold out for team news this evening and get on the one with a solid looking team ( my eye is firmly on Real Madrid this evening
1 comment:
Very true about the over 1.5 goals - other than just the slight risk on only one goal of course.
Last night' Gothenburg game was a classic example 0-2 at half time and bet already won.
Incidentally I wonder if you had the courage to do the enhanced betting at 0-2 or did you do it at 0-1 and then start getting really worried when they scored again!
Good luck
Mick
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