We are getting to that part of the horse racing season which is very difficult, with the end of the flat and the beginning of the jumps ( and, of course, horses who have not run for a while)
Even a strong candidate like Baltimore Clipper went unplaced. Midas Touch was backed into 1/3 and won cosily
Well, as I write, I backed Romania u19 v Faroes over 2.5 goals at 1.45 ( silly price at 1-0 up) and it's 2-0 and I have greened out for a profit. Nice!
210 LEIC
DIOMED VERDICT: The promising OFFICIAL STYLE did not get the breaks at Newbury and he may be able to improve past Mufarrh. |
Only 4 under 20/1 but look at the size of this maiden - plenty of potential debutant surprises await 1.4 te front 2
220 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pytheas, 3/1 Burnett, Sir Pitt, 6/1 Danceintothelight, 10/1 Molon Labe, 14/1 Palawi, 20/1 Dandino, Fusenam, 33/1 Edward Longshanks, 66/1 Hotgrove Boy, Tantsor, Timetowynagain, 100/1 Acol.
DIOMED VERDICT: SIR PITT takes the eye on pedigree and is taken to beat fellow Derby entry Burnett on his racecourse debut. |
I've place backed Pytheas twice now , and he has obliged twice. Still a maiden, Mark Johnston would like to see some winning form soon enough. Backed into 7/4 at present 1.33 to place
310 LEICE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Hafawa, 11/4 Cumulus Nimbus, 7/2 Dawnbreak, 33/1 Premium Charge, 100/1 Bravo Blue, Rosie´s Magic.
DIOMED VERDICT: The step up to 7f will suit HAFAWA and she should beat Cumulus Nimbus and Dawnbreak. |
Only 3 under 33/1 here and looks like 3 horses vying for 2 places, but we saw the problem with 2 place races, the most obvious candidate can cause a shock.The market favours the Johnston horse Hafawa 1.21 to place
440 LEic
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Botanist, 4/1 Mataaleb, 9/2 Treasure Town, 13/2 Capital Attraction, 7/1 Isdaar, 10/1 Argaum, 20/1 Protaras, 25/1 Highland Knight, 33/1 Green Lightning, Mme De Stael, The Blue Dog, 66/1 Azaday, Yes Chef, 100/1 Daryainur.
DIOMED VERDICT: BOTANIST has done more than enough to suggest he can win a maiden. Price gapper for Moore/Stoute in this 14 runner maiden. Botanist has had 2 runs and was a nose 2nd last time out. As you know by now, it's a matter of faith for a 2 year old to reproduce the good form again - market has him at odds on here 1.24 to place FOOTBALL Euro Championship qualifiers Turkey u21 v Armenia u21 - 1.15 to win -ust going by the odds here 1/9 shots at home rarely lose Germany v Israel -1.45 Greece v Lithuania 1.25 Leichtenstein v Finland 1.25 to Finland Italy u21 v Bosnia u21 - 1.25 Brazilu20 v Costa Rica u20 - 1.32 SHORTLIST 310 Leicester first race of interest. I have ignired Pytheas although I think the horse will run well, 2 debutants so close in the market could be anything and push Pytheas out of the places Back to the 31, all being well, this is simply a 3 horse race with 2 places up for grabs. Obvious starting point is Hafawa at 1.20 , but a note of caution a la Aohna. It will be a 3 horse race but it doesn't mean Hafawa will place in the first 2! 440 LEICESTER - Botanist is 1.24 and confident in the place market - odds on in the win market. We saw with Baltimore Clipper that 3 2nd places did not guarantee another place. We must remember always these are 2 year olds. Has the right man onboard though and faith in Ryan Moore's ability to coax another good placed run. 6 one time outers are all open to perceived improvement, and 6 debutants could be anything all adding to the mix EURO CHAMPIONSHIP u21's - at least they're not freindlies Turkey v Armenia 1.15 - realistic appraisal of chances I would think Leichtenstein v Finland - 1.25 away from home. Finnish are no football superpowers but Leichtenstein, along with Andorra, Moldova, Luxembourg, Faroe Islands, must always be opposed. Brazil u20 v Costa Rica u20 - reputation puts the Brazil boys at a short price and 1.19 over 1.5 goals is in running and must have a chance of success ( name me 1 0-0 match featuring Brazil!) ONE A DAY I have already secured my one a day with a chance encounter with 1.45 over 2.5 goals when Romania under 21's were 1-0 up against Faroe Islands with only 35 minutes of the game gone. It is 2-0 and the price reduced to 1.13 so job done for me. So final choices 1) Turkey to beat Armenia 1.15 ( 5-2 already in Armenia augurs well for home clash) 2) Brazil under 20's v Costa Rica under 20'S 1.19 over 1.5 goals - has the advantage of being in running and we have both teams working for us. Negatives - under 20's can equal naivete 3) Hafawa in the 310 Leicester - 1.21 to place - looks a horse race 4) Leichtenstein v Finland - Finland beaten 2-1 by Poland. Poland beat Leichtenstein 5-0 so this is a form line. Finland 1.25 I would personally opt for Turkey as the strongest bet - they were 3-0 up away from home and now have home advantage |
1 comment:
good shout but last minute! Still all minutes are the same.
Keep up the good work
Mick
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