Tuesday, 13 October 2009

13/10

One bet which was not apparent at time of writing was Man Utd reserves v Oldham reserves. 1.22 generally available and 2-0 before you could blink. The match was not on the Betfair coupon when I wrote which was a shame.
We are getting to that part of the horse racing season which is very difficult, with the end of the flat and the beginning of the jumps ( and, of course, horses who have not run for a while)

Even a strong candidate like Baltimore Clipper went unplaced. Midas Touch was backed into 1/3 and won cosily

Well, as I write, I backed Romania u19 v Faroes over 2.5 goals at 1.45 ( silly price at 1-0 up) and it's 2-0 and I have greened out for a profit. Nice!

210 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mufarrh, 100/30 Official Style, 4/1 Poor Prince, 6/1 State Fair, 8/1 Stefanki, 20/1 Al Khawarezmi, Hypnotized, 25/1 Breakheart, Penrod Ballantyne, Sixties Rock, 33/1 Donair, Painswick, 50/1 Hidden Glory, Trecase, 100/1 Captain Clint, Imjin River, 200/1 Appeal To Reason, Polebrook.

DIOMED VERDICT: The promising OFFICIAL STYLE did not get the breaks at Newbury and he may be able to improve past Mufarrh.

Only 4 under 20/1 but look at the size of this maiden - plenty of potential debutant surprises await 1.4 te front 2

220 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pytheas, 3/1 Burnett, Sir Pitt, 6/1 Danceintothelight, 10/1 Molon Labe, 14/1 Palawi, 20/1 Dandino, Fusenam, 33/1 Edward Longshanks, 66/1 Hotgrove Boy, Tantsor, Timetowynagain, 100/1 Acol.

DIOMED VERDICT: SIR PITT takes the eye on pedigree and is taken to beat fellow Derby entry Burnett on his racecourse debut.

I've place backed Pytheas twice now , and he has obliged twice. Still a maiden, Mark Johnston would like to see some winning form soon enough. Backed into 7/4 at present 1.33 to place

310 LEICE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Hafawa, 11/4 Cumulus Nimbus, 7/2 Dawnbreak, 33/1 Premium Charge, 100/1 Bravo Blue, Rosie´s Magic.

DIOMED VERDICT: The step up to 7f will suit HAFAWA and she should beat Cumulus Nimbus and Dawnbreak.

Only 3 under 33/1 here and looks like 3 horses vying for 2 places, but we saw the problem with 2 place races, the most obvious candidate can cause a shock.The market favours the Johnston horse Hafawa 1.21 to place

440 LEic
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Botanist, 4/1 Mataaleb, 9/2 Treasure Town, 13/2 Capital Attraction, 7/1 Isdaar, 10/1 Argaum, 20/1 Protaras, 25/1 Highland Knight, 33/1 Green Lightning, Mme De Stael, The Blue Dog, 66/1 Azaday, Yes Chef, 100/1 Daryainur.

DIOMED VERDICT: BOTANIST has done more than enough to suggest he can win a maiden.
Price gapper for Moore/Stoute in this 14 runner maiden. Botanist has had 2 runs and was a nose 2nd last time out. As you know by now, it's a matter of faith for a 2 year old to reproduce the good form again - market has him at odds on here 1.24 to place

FOOTBALL
Euro Championship qualifiers
Turkey u21 v Armenia u21 - 1.15 to win -ust going by the odds here 1/9 shots at home rarely lose
Germany v Israel -1.45
Greece v Lithuania 1.25
Leichtenstein v Finland 1.25 to Finland
Italy u21 v Bosnia u21 - 1.25
Brazilu20 v Costa Rica u20 - 1.32

SHORTLIST
310 Leicester first race of interest. I have ignired Pytheas although I think the horse will run well, 2 debutants so close in the market could be anything and push Pytheas out of the places
Back to the 31, all being well, this is simply a 3 horse race with 2 places up for grabs. Obvious starting point is Hafawa at 1.20 , but a note of caution a la Aohna. It will be a 3 horse race but it doesn't mean Hafawa will place in the first 2!
440 LEICESTER - Botanist is 1.24 and confident in the place market - odds on in the win market. We saw with Baltimore Clipper that 3 2nd places did not guarantee another place. We must remember always these are 2 year olds.
Has the right man onboard though and faith in Ryan Moore's ability to coax another good placed run.
6 one time outers are all open to perceived improvement, and 6 debutants could be anything all adding to the mix

EURO CHAMPIONSHIP u21's - at least they're not freindlies
Turkey v Armenia 1.15 - realistic appraisal of chances I would think
Leichtenstein v Finland - 1.25 away from home. Finnish are no football superpowers but Leichtenstein, along with Andorra, Moldova, Luxembourg, Faroe Islands, must always be opposed.
Brazil u20 v Costa Rica u20 - reputation puts the Brazil boys at a short price and 1.19 over 1.5 goals is in running and must have a chance of success ( name me 1 0-0 match featuring Brazil!)
ONE A DAY

I have already secured my one a day with a chance encounter with 1.45 over 2.5 goals when Romania under 21's were 1-0 up against Faroe Islands with only 35 minutes of the game gone. It is 2-0 and the price reduced to 1.13 so job done for me.

So final choices
1) Turkey to beat Armenia 1.15 ( 5-2 already in Armenia augurs well for home clash)
2) Brazil under 20's v Costa Rica under 20'S 1.19 over 1.5 goals - has the advantage of being in running and we have both teams working for us. Negatives - under 20's can equal naivete
3) Hafawa in the 310 Leicester - 1.21 to place - looks a horse race
4) Leichtenstein v Finland - Finland beaten 2-1 by Poland. Poland beat Leichtenstein 5-0 so this is a form line. Finland 1.25
I would personally opt for Turkey as the strongest bet - they were 3-0 up away from home and now have home advantage



price gapper for Moore/Stoute

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

good shout but last minute! Still all minutes are the same.
Keep up the good work
Mick