Thursday, 9 July 2009

9/7

Successful one a day yesterday.
I have backed USA v Honduras yesterday morning so effective have my one a day today. It was a last minute decision and alas I could not stay on live chat til 2am! I remembered their performances in the Confederations Cup and went for it, thinking 1/4 very reasonable.

130 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Kite Wood, 3/1 Free Agent, 6/1 Tactic, 8/1 Dhushan, Too Much Trouble, 14/1 Above Average, Popmurphy, 25/1 Inhibition.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is a drop in class for KITE WOOD and it will be disappointing if he cannot deliver.

Another class dropper, and we saw with Slip yesterday, the major class droppers in the last 2 days have produced 3 winners from 3.1.53 to place

210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tomintoul Singer, 9/2 Starburst Excel, 6/1 Memory And Magic, Sakile, Titoli Di Coda, 17/2 Emma Jean Lass, 10/1 Oasis Jade, Yurituni, 16/1 Graceandgratitude, 50/1 Princess Shamal.

DIOMED VERDICT: TOMINTOUL SINGER was beaten at 2-9 at 6f last time but on her previous decent second at this minimum trip on her debut at Leicester is the one to beat.

2 2nds augurs well for this fav 1.23 to place

245 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Silk Trail, 7/1 Bobble Rock, 12/1 Kessraa, 14/1 Set Em Up Mo, 16/1 Spring Bridge, 50/1 Soldier Soldier,

DIOMED VERDICT: SILK TRAIL has produced enough to suggest she can win at this level for a top stable back in decent form.

1/5 shot now , default selection? Only 2 places though BUT should ensure a reasonable price given 2 places 1.22 win 1.08 place and 5 runners

440 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Secret Hero, 5/1 Minturno, 8/1 Iasia, Iron Out, Jimwil, 10/1 Advertise, Ymir, 12/1 Flying Silks, 14/1 Special Cuvee, 25/1 D´Artagnans Dream.

DIOMED VERDICT: The market suggested Secret Hero would improve on his handicap debut and he may have more to come yet.

7 runners and fav remains. Still 3 places BUT outsider is only 11/1 1.4 to place

515 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Doggerbank, 15/8 Souter Point, 7/1 Little Prudence, 8/1 De Soto, 16/1 Sally Forth, Warrants Attention, 33/1 Thunderonthemount, 66/1 First Maid, Mik.

DIOMED VERDICT: DOGGERBANK and Souter Point stand out on form and the former may be the stronger stayer.

Front 2 to dominate? 1.18 ad 1.24 the front 2 to place

600 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Famous, 3/1 Rosa Muscosa, 8/1 Qubool, 10/1 Aynaz, Strandhill, 12/1 Foxillian, 14/1 My Mood, 16/1 Runaway Rose, 20/1 Porto Banus.

O'Brien shortie should do the business today. 1.06 to place - illiquid market

755 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Fairmile, 6/5 Rugell, 14/1 Kaleo, 40/1 Play Up Pompey.

DIOMED VERDICT: If RUGELL, a Grade 2 winner in Argentina last November, has been showing anything in his new surroundings, this is probably a great opportunity with only Fairmile a serious rival.

2 horse race? 1.12 the front 2 to place but illiquid market

830 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tarzan, 7/2 Twilight Star, 5/1 Rock Anthem, 6/1 Prince Of Thebes, 15/2 Phluke, 16/1 Northern Spy.

DIOMED VERDICT: TARZAN (nap) takes a big drop in class and readily gets the vote ahead of Twilight Star.

Another class dropper - they seem to come in clusters!! 1.62 to place

FOOTBALL
Europa 2nd legs
Rosenborg again take on a team they spanked last week-they're 1/25 to win = goals? BUT they are comfortably through
3am Mexico 4/11 v Panama

SHORTLIST
210 FOLK
Son of Johannesburg has 2 2nds so far , will Tomintoul singer place again? Only 4 under 10/1. The live market will, of course, be important as it ususally is in maidens

245 FOLK
Silk trial is ,of course, very obvious , as is his place only price 1.08 to place. 2 places. 1.22 to win. Perhaps a double with FAmous in the 600 Leopardstown who is a similar price and shoud place, creating a 1.16 bet for level stakes backers, but, of course, doubling the risk

755 EPSOM
looks a reasonable 2 horse race with Fairmile and Rugell set to dominate? Likely default selection is favourite.

MEXICO 1.48 to win -at 3am so tradeable only for night owls. A reasonable shout at home.
Rosenborg won by the odd goal in 7 against this opposition away from home. Home today and 1/25 -1.08 to win. Should oblige with ease if complacency does not set in

ONE A DAY
3 1.08 shots. The 2 I fancy are Famous and Rosenborg -Famous only because it's 3 places and Rosenborg as they are proven against this opposition with 7 goals away from home.
Silk Trail should win with ease. The 1.22 is tempting for the win but there are 2 debutants who the market tell us should not be up to beating Silk Hall. 1.08 there looks reasonable to place in the first 2, for a horse placed in 4 starts

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