245 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Harbinger, 4/1 Firebet, Masterofthehorse, 11/2 Urban Poet, 14/1 Swindler, Tactic, 25/1 Big Bound, Montaff, 66/1 Heliodor,
| DIOMED VERDICT: HARBINGER needs to step up on his bare form but he may be capable of improving past Masterofthehorse, a good thing on his Derby third but not necessarily on his other form. |
Only 4 under 12/1 in the live market- Harbinger 1.47, all of the rest are 1.9 and over to place - ticky race with Harbinger coming back from an injury and an 83 day absence.
1 mile 4 furlongs is not a good distance for me -UPDATE - firebet the slight mover into 7/2
325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Main Aim, 3/1 J J The Jet Plane, 9/2 Ouqba, 9/1 Finjaan, 10/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 Balthazaar´s Gift, 20/1 Regal Parade, 33/1 Express Wish,
| DIOMED VERDICT: MAIN AIM is fancied to confirm July Cup superiority over J J The Jet Plane and swell the Stoute coffers even further. |
Only 3 under 12/1 here and Main Aim is currently solid at the head of the market at 5/4
Regal Parade possible mover into 14/1
1.23 to place is Main Aim here in this 9 runner event, 3 places and Ryan Moore is onboard.
UPDATE - Main Aim is now 11/10 and hardening at the head of the betting
On the last 2 occasions that Main Aim has been favourite he has won which augurs well. The occasions he was not favourite he placed 4th and 2nd
The 4th and 2nd places came in class 1 group 1 races - he is eased slightly to class 1 group 2 today
400 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Monsieur Chevalier, 5/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 8/1 Mister Manannan, 10/1 Reignier, 16/1 Archers Road, Bould Mover, Totally Invincible, 25/1 Mdawee, Soccer, 33/1 Here Now And Why, Star Rover.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The sharper track may not be ideal but MONSIEUR CHEVALIER can get the job done again. |
Price gap in the live market 8/11 - - - - - - 10/1 is very eyecatching. I missed backing him last time out for the win/place
Richard Hughes maintains the ride 1.26 to place Monsieur. 5 furlong events can be tricky betting mediums and there is a concern that this horse cannot keep winning ( I suppose that has already been the case with his 5th place 2 races ago)
If we were going purely by price gaps then this is the one.
UPDATE -Price gap remains - 4 over 33/1 should reduce the competitive field
UPDATE
455 Beverley
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Honimiere, 7/2 Sanctuary, 4/1 Amazing Blue Sky, 6/1 Union Island, 10/1 Gaily Noble, 16/1 Cornish Castle, 20/1 Toby Tyler, 25/1 Maybeme.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A 6lb penalty may not be enough to stop HONIMIERE (nap), who is still unexposed at this sort of distance, from following up last week's C&D success. |
2 late non runners reduce this field to 6 and 3 places still - tight market though with 14/1 the price of the perceived outsider. 1.28 for Honimiere not to get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race.
UPDATE
735 Galway
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Brushed Aside, 11/4 Devoted To You, 7/1 Akdarena, 8/1 Dazzling Day, 12/1 Christmas Light, Sammuramat, 16/1 Louisa Leyton, Tinas Exhibition, 20/1 Loughderg Princess, One For Joules, 25/1 Hepburn, Red Island Lass, Rio Branston, 33/1 Lisagore Lady, New Grey, 50/1 She´s A Staker,
Only 4 horses here are under 20/1 at time of writing
Brushed aside represents a stable who have won this race the last 3 times .
illiquid markets at the moment
840 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Qassaar, 5/1 Morethanafeeling, 6/1 Cilium, My Blue Heaven, 8/1 The Black Russian, 20/1 Zeruth, 25/1 Aisteoir, 33/1 Montana Mist, Northern Champ.
Price gapper here and no analysis on the betting site, nor any early prices so I am going by the price gap and the fact this is Weld/Smullen
I have bought a paper copy of the Racing Post, which tells us Qassaar has not run this season which is a concern and in his sole 4th placed run, he did beat 3 Aiden O'brien horses who have all won since. Is this enough to back a 274 day absentee.
UPDATE - Cilium is quite a significant non runner resulting in Qassaar now hardening to 2/5 in a race where only 4 are under 25/1.
Of course it would be silly of me to comment on the strength of this bet given I am writing some 7 hours before the race is due off. Better to decide nearer the off incase, for instance, there is another significant non runner, or indeed, the jockey gets injured
FOOTBALL
7pm - Rangers are away to Wiedenbruck and are 1.2 to win in another friendly. Pre season 2nd match-they won their previous match 2-0. This game comes before the ultimately meaningless Emirates Cup and Walter Smith may field a strong side?
Rangers' opponents are in the Verbandsliga Westfalen which is "the second highest football league in the region of Westfalen which is part of the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen. It operates in two separate groups which run parallel below the Oberliga Nordrhein-Westfalen. Currently the sixth tier of the German football league system, the Westfalenligen were the fifth tier until the 3rd Liga was introduced in 2008."
Should be an easy win shouldn't it?
Burnley are 1.4 to beat Accrington Stanley at their ground UPDATE - here's an interesting stat on this traditional friendly from the Accrington Stanley website
"It has become a regular pre-season fixture in recent years, with Burnley bringing their first team squad as both sides prepare for the coming season. It hasn't however been one that we have fared well in though, having lost four and drawn three in our last seven recent encounters."
This leads me to laying Accrington at currently available 7.4? Surely we should get a good run for our money as Burnley bring their first team squad.
Stanley are a league 2 side
This is looking like a potential one a day for me
Juventus are 1.33 to beat Seongnam Ilhwa in the "Peace Cup" ,another pointless pre season exercise
Real MAdrid have been complacent and awful (yes they have not been playing their strongest side) and I can't have them against LDU this evening, although they have been scoring first (and mostly in the 2nd half) so that's a good trading option
SHORTLIST UPDATE
We face the conundrum with these high profile meetings that the races will prove always to be highly competitive , resulting un underperforming " sure things"
This is the problem and this has been proven generally this flat season already.
325 GOODWOOD - well Main Aim really is the talking horse here today and Ouqba could be the fly in the ointment for me after that one's last race really stood in the mind. Is main aim really 11/10 to Ouqba's 5/1 difference in quality?
If so then the place looks assured under the ideflat jockey for the job.
400 GOODWOOD - I missed Monsieur last time out when he won in a 20 runner field under the same jockey. All of the trainers in this race fear Monsieur and see him as THE one to beat.
4 of the 11 runners are 33/1 or bigger today which should reduce the competitive field somewhat.
What concerns me is that horses with winning run usually end them spectacularly eventually. The price gap, however , does not tell me that today is likely to be that day.
As you can probably guess, it is ONLY the huge price gap in the live market that sustains my interest in this one.
455 BEVERLEY
Honimiere was the original favourite and is now still fav in this 50/50 race - will 3 horses from 6 beat him ( default selection really as fav!)
NEGATIVE - middle distance handicap - hint at competitive nature of race given 12/1 outsider
Rangers are 1.2 against Wiedenbruck today -the concern here is the market on betfair is ridiculously illiquid. eg Only £4 AVAILABLE to back Rangers at 1.19 presently.
Now I have fished out some stats re the regular accrington Stanley v Burnley friendly, it would seem that 1) Burnley field their first team squad and 2) by their own admission, Accrington either draw or lose - hence a possible lay of Accrington?Equivalent of a 1.14 back bet at current 7.4 odds (again this is a terribly illiquid market meaning we are not getting anywhere near competitive prices and really have to take what's on offer - hopefully this will change nearer the off time)
Interestingly the half time/full time dutch of
-Burnley/Burnley
-Draw/Burnley
-Draw/Draw
pays out 1.30 currently which presumes Accrington do not win the first half ( the lay of accrington outright presupposes that they can win the first half as long as they do not win the 90 minute game)
ONE A DAY
The Goodwood horses are very tempting indeed today but in the back of my mind is the possible carnage dealt out to favourite backers at previous high quality meetings.
For this reason, I am taken by the Accrington Stanley game, aware that if I keep backing in friendlies I will eventually come unstuck. Safe (if the liquidity is available) to lay Accrington in the match odds market and hope today is not the day for them to end their losing and drawing sequence against Burnley
Good luck with your selections. I'm going half time/full time dutch and hope for the best.
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