13/7

I left you with famous Name and the USA - well the former won and the latter drew BUT scored first after 9 minutes to help with trading if in running

145 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ring For Time, 2/1 Candle, 7/2 Sylroy, 10/1 Glacial Call, 16/1 Mayfair Tambourine, 20/1 Gemgaballou, Itstooearly, 33/1 Classical Act, Poppy Red, Pure Zest, 66/1 Katies Fashion.

DIOMED VERDICT: CANDLE was essentially a stayer on the Flat and stamina might see her through in a poor race.

3 under 20/1 the ones to concentrate on. 1.29 the front 2 to place

215 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Cooksgrove Lady, 2/1 Eastern Surprise, 14/1 Drain Hopper, Nessa, 20/1 Francly Flora, 33/1 On Oath, Orchid´s Silver, 66/1 Tenawa, 100/1 Glorious Gin, Tubby Nugget.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks good for the Irish and EASTERN SURPRISE is just preferred to Cooksgrove Lady.

Another race with 2 under 14/1. Again the ones to concentrate on but will both place? 1.13 and 1.20 to place the front 2

245 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Armenian Boy, 3/1 Earth Dream, 7/2 Mhilu, 7/1 Pilgrims Lane, 10/1 Chevy To The Levy, 14/1 Allez Frank, 33/1 The Raven Hare, 100/1 Brandy And Pep, Oscar Royal.

DIOMED VERDICT: ARMENIAN BOY was one of the best of these over hurdles and should be all the wiser for his respectable chasing debut at Hexham.

4 under 12/1 -Pilgrims lane a possible mover and Armenian Boy is still a strong favourite - 1.22 to place

430 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Island Chief, 3/1 Tiger Reigns, 5/1 Crime Writer, 11/2 Espero, 15/2 Proud Times, 9/1 Trumpstoo, 10/1 Maggie Lou, 66/1 Queen Of Dobbin.

DIOMED VERDICT: CRIME WRITER failed to run his race at Doncaster last time but had previously won his maiden in the style of an improving horse and is given another chance.

Tiger Reigns now 7/4 favourite - important move? 1.24 to place Tiger Reigns.

SHORTLIST
The problem we find today is that the majority of the races mentioned above are "top heavy" markets, where it would seem that the race is a 2 horse race. I am sure you have seen enough evidence that the 1-2 in the betting market rarely both place. If this is the case, then, which horse are we going to chose?

215 NEWTON ABBOTT - Cooksgrove Lady by default really at 1.13 is the shortest priced of the 2 at the head of the market here. As I cannot really split the horses, then this is the logical way of making a choice?

245 NEWTON ABBOTT - Armenian Boy has the hint of price gapper about him in the live betting market. Note this is a beginners chase.
A 9 runner race, 2 horses are 100/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 7. Only 4 horses are under 12/1 and should these be the ones come the end of the race? Hope so

430 AYR - Tiger Reigns , 3/1 in the betting forecast, is 7/4 fav in the live market and quite solid. Crime writer represents Fanning/Johnston and they must always be respected if there is a hint of market confidence.

ONE A DAY
A very niggly day today. 2 races have 2 clear leaders ,but the problem is that these 2 are not both guaranteed to place , so which horse do we chose? One will inevitably place.
This leaves Armenian Boy who has a reasonable chance of placing if the price gap in the live market is accurate.
The 430 Ayr is a typical handicap race so, again, we have to take the price move on Tiger Reigns on trust and hope it reflects a horse with an excellent chance of winning.

245 NEWTON ABBOT I think would be my choice in a poor day really.I would need to see Armenian Boy remain as a price gapper in the live market and I will be open to nailing an earlier opportunity if one arises. There are opportunities in earlier races to dutch and create bets of around 1.10

For example, 145 NA , you could dutch Candle, Ring for time, Sylroy, Glacial Call and it would return 1.10
This appeals .