Update a little early as I have to go out today
205 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Weeping Willow, 15/8 Gundaroo, 10/1 Baileys Gleam, 12/1 Bintalwaadi, Fairy Promises, 14/1 Caramelita, 16/1 Gracelightening, 20/1 In The Slips, 25/1 Hulcote Rose, 33/1 Casey´s Rebel, 50/1 Antoella, 66/1 Ellies Image,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Gundaroo has fallen a little short of expectations and newcomer WEEPING WILLOW may well prove too good. |
Weeping willow a non runner so surely this opens things up to Gundaroo
6 debutants in this maiden
UPDATE - only 6 runners remain with 3 places 1.08 currently for Gundaroo. I suspect the defection of the runners is down to the ground?
Yes, as suspected, the ground is heavy at Nottingham which throws a spanner in the works somewhat, especially when considering 2 year olds and a fav yet to run on heavy. A simple 50/50 race this one, 6 horses 3 places. 11/1 the outsider now tells us that heavy ground has made this something of a leveller?
225 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 High Gales, 11/4 Gemini Ahhs, 14/1 Alfie Noakes, Art Value, Hammer, 20/1 Adage, Hurstpierpoint, 50/1 Ballygorey, Mouseen, Squadron Leader, 100/1 Amazon Attraction, Diamanpeg, Kaftan Lad, Lady Penelopy, Mayfair Tambourine.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HIGH GALES had the remainder well beaten when second to a well-backed winner at Uttoxeter and he can go one better. |
A maiden hurdle and 2 only under 14/1, High Gales has Choc Thornton on for J J LAmbe 1.11 and 1.21 the front 2, the only 2 horses under 14/1 Only 4 horses under 25/1 are the only ones to consider it would seem
I think Choc Thornton, along with mcCoy and Walsh, is the kind of name I want to entrust with a shortie ,to get the job done, bar of course a fall/ pulled up/unseat rider ( as has happened before even under Choc!)
6 horses 100/1 or over hint at a lot of dead wood here -no ground concerns
300 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tribiani, 2/1 Tora Petcha, 7/1 Noubian, 10/1 Dobravany, 14/1 Bernabeu, Outback Bob, 20/1 Titfer, 33/1 Briannsta, Eddystone, Encore Belle, Shrewd Dude, 66/1 Jethro Wheeler, 100/1 Glenargo.
| DIOMED VERDICT: NOUBIAN is relegated to a seller for the first time and could make an impact if conditions continue to deteriorate. |
Only 5 under 25/1 - Tora Petcha a late non runner really opens things up for Tribiani? Yes this is a selling race but the original betting forecast had only 2 under 7/1 and one of them has gone now.1.2 to place
Only 4 under double figure odds remain.
Rhys Flint claims 3 lbs and he's a good solid newcomer.
Of course we all know about sellers and potential inconsistencies.
UPDATE
325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Schiaparelli, 11/2 Askar Tau, Enroller, 13/2 Mourilyan, 7/1 Caracciola, 10/1 Friston Forest, 12/1 Centennial, 16/1 Tungsten Strike, 20/1 The Betchworth Kid, 33/1 Judgethemoment.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SCHIAPARELLI is a strong fancy, having by some way the best form and with the signs looking very good for his lasting 2m. |
Price gap remains in the live betting market and a solid 2/1 for Frankie's mount in a muddling middle distance race 1.62 relays the compeitive nature of this race
335 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Intense Suspense, 11/4 Choumakeur, 8/1 Jackie Boy, Orchard House, 10/1 Pipers Legend, 12/1 Avoine, 14/1 Rapid Return, River Ripples, 16/1 Working Late, 25/1 Bathwick Lucy, Pagan Sword, 100/1 Marado.
| DIOMED VERDICT: INTENSE SUSPENSE gets lots of weight off Choumakeur and can make the most of it. |
Fav is a non runner and Choumakeur is the price gapper now, but carries a lot of weight and may be vulnerable. The question is - although this welter burden may stop him winning, will it stop him placing. We need to check ground conditions as well 1.42 to place and relatively inexperienced 5 lb claiming jockey employed to help offset the weight. Not today for me I dont think
BUT if we go by the betting forecast, with Intense surprise out and only 8 runners remaining, is there still hope for a place?
UPDATE
350 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Mount Hermon, 4/1 Mick´s Dancer, 5/1 Persian Peril, 13/2 Rosbay, 7/1 Sri Kuantan, 8/1 Puzzlemaster, 10/1 Best Prospect, 12/1 Hurlingham, 20/1 Taaresh.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PERSIAN PERIL will love the ground and still looks progressive. |
5 horses remain and Persian Peril the new fav who apparently loves the ground 1.27 in a 5 horse race with only 2 to beat to place
OR do you think Persian Peril will get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race?
420 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dual Gales, 2/1 Glenstal Abbey, 6/1 Carsonstown Boy, 8/1 Onzo Mor, 10/1 Keoghs Bar, Woodland Traveller, 12/1 Stomers Cross, 14/1 Mushtaaq, 20/1 Capall Eile, 25/1 The Three Colleens, 33/1 Onecooleturtle.
McCoy versus Walsh here -another mouth watering clash 1.22 and 1.15 the front 2 - you know my thoughts on these top heavy races - one usually falters - BUT WHICH ONE?
425 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Expressive, 9/2 Fanunalter, 5/1 Landofthefourones, 10/1 Illusive Spirit, 12/1 Chateauneuf, Herecomethegirls, 100/1 Group Leader, Largem, Lilly Royal, Mythical Thrill,
| DIOMED VERDICT: EXPRESSIVE looks a nice prospect and bumped into a good one on her debut. |
2nd fav is out which hopefully makes Expressive's job easier - another maiden and one run only for this fav - UPDATE - fav is out now so no play here
UPDATE
500 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Deutschland, 8/1 Northern Alliance, Vital Plot, 9/1 Indian Pace, 12/1 Cuan Na Grai, Eagle´s Pass, Truckers Delight, 14/1 Fingers, Fisher Bridge, Raise Your Heart, See U Bob, 16/1 Bahrain Storm, Silverhand, Time Electric, 20/1 Decoy Daddy, Fosters Cross, Lucky Wish, Stage Manager, 25/1 Sarteano, 33/1 Finns Cross,
Typical big field at Galway and Deutschland under Ruby is a price gapper here 5/2 - - - - - 10/1 sencond fav ( happens to be McCoy again) Dare we take the hint of this price gap?
1.74 to place in a 4 the place race recounts the task facing the fav but at the same time it's a cracking price for the Walsh/Mullins partnership and is ideal for target profit per dayers rather than level stakes players as the stakes will be so small to earn your target amount per day
520 STRATFORD
| DIOMED VERDICT: BILLIE MAGERN ought to win this if he's worth an official mark of 123. |
3rd fav a non runner leaves 2 under 20/1 in a hopeful 3 places race. Choc Thornton on Corporation again for J J Lambe 1.07 and 1.11 relate the apparent ease the front 2 now face with 3rd fav out - 3 places - and bar any accidents, this should surely involve these 2, the only 2 under 14/1
UPDATE
550 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Cailin Na Ri, 11/4 Rockys Choice, 3/1 Dinarius, 13/2 Bannville, 12/1 Poppy Parade, 16/1 Duneen Dream, 20/1 Planetarium, Vertueux, 33/1 Shipslog, 40/1 Champion De Sou, Minstalad, 50/1 Lady Korrianda, 100/1 Revalley, Tubby Nugget.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Rockys Choice and Dinarius enter calculations but CAILIN NA RI is taken to build on her decent effort at Worcester. |
Fav a non runner -only 4 under 20/1 in the live market should be the ones to consider - I suspec that following the market nearer race time can allow us to make the key distinction regarding who to chose to place
645 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bahraj, 2/1 Living It Large, 3/1 Dower Glen, 10/1 Pink Lemonade, 33/1 Chilean Fizz, Grace Jicaro, Psychopathicsandra, 50/1 Lady Laurem.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There may not be much between the promising once-raced pair LIVING IT LARGE and Bahraj. |
No live prices yet but Bahraj is the Johnston horse here and if backed - well, you know the deal!
UPDATE - now provisional fav and 1.2 to place - many hours til race time so live market must be consilted and if prominent then Bahraj could, I hope, keep the superb Johnston maiden form going
745 MUSSELBURGH
| DIOMED VERDICT: RED SKIPPER might prove too sharp for Keisha Kayleigh round here and is w, shorth chancing with his yard in such good form. |
Price gapper here but no early prices to check against 1.26 in an illiquid market
FOOTBALL
| 18:00 | CSKA Sofia vs Derry City | 1/4 |
| 18:00 | Vetra vs Fulham | 11/2 | 3/1 | 2/5 |
| 18:15 | Rapid Vienna vs APOP Kinyras | 1/5 |
| 18:45 | Steaua Bucharest vs Motherwell | 1/3 |
| 19:30 | Randers FC vs Hamburg | 6/1 | 11/4 | 2/5 |
| 19:30 | Bruges vs FC Lahti | 1/3 |
| 19:45 | Fenerbahçe vs Honved | 1/5 |
| 19:45 | Roma vs Ghent | 1/5 |
| 19:45 | PSV vs Cherno More Varn | 1/5 |
| 19:45 | Sevojno vs Lille | 11/2 | 3/1 | 2/5 |
| 19:45 | Bayern Munich vs Manchester Utd | 11/8 | 11/5 | 8/5 |
| 20:00 | Monaco vs Inter | 13/5 | 12/5 | 4/5 |
All of the above fooy matches, pretty much, are meaningful as they are UEFA Europa League matches so it's a matter really of chosing the 1/5 shot most likely to get the result - preference for in running perhaps?
Immediately Roma stand out, perhaps more by reputation and recogniseability than anything else
As already mentioned I like Woy's Fulham side who are consistent and strong and ,if 2/5, well the hope is they can be trusted to deliver. Perhaps laying Vetra here will be the safer bet?
PSV have a domestic reputation for goals and they play CHerno More Varn - 3rd place in Domestic league last season
Fenerbahche look good at home against Honved?
SHORTLIST
MArkets not properly formed yet,
225 Stratford,425 Nottingham, and 520 Stratford are the 3 to concentrate on on my update later on.
Footy wise, Fulham and Roma stand out in the footy.
There must be an angle in with the Man Utd/Bayern match
Roma match is in running. A large proportion of the matches today suffer from lack of liquidity. I am quite taken by a lay of Vetra v Fulham today. I just think Fulham are rock solid and consistent
Fener are 1.21 against Honved
SHORTLIST
Huge list of interesting potential qualifiers today
205 NOTT - yes it's heavy but its 6 runners and 3 places and Gundaroo remains - but 1.08.
225 STRATFORD - you can set your watch by him - Choc on High Gales at 1.11 should deliver a place ba any falls etc
350 NOTT - 5 runners and 3 places - simple probability race - the hope is that any pick will not get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race. 1.28 to palce for Perisan Peril looks a huge price. Can Winston ensure he does not get beaten by 3 in this 5 horse race?
520 STRATFORD
Looks a 2 horse race if ever there was one (barring accidents - this is the jumps) -1.07 Billie McGern and 1.12 Corporation -again Choc on the latter horse .
7 runners - 3 places - 3rd fav out
600 - Lay Vetra v Fulham. Currently 10 to lay but should be shorter as the market is illiquid
745 Fenerbahce c Honved - 1.21 -should oblige
745 Roma v Gent 1.28 and in running
ONE A DAY
225 Stratfod - High Gales for me at 1.11 looks v appealing but the 520 sees 7 runners and 3 places - only 4 to beat to place for Choc on Corporation at 1.12 -an equivalent price with fewer opponents and the same great jockey on board.
If you can go in running today, then there's plenty of opportunuty to bag your one a day before this one goes off.
Hope I've made the right choice.
Perhaps you'd like to take advantage of that 5 horse race and 3 places at Nottingham BUT knowing that heavy ground is the concern there. From a purely probability perspective you have a superb opportunity in the 350 NOTT to pick one horse NOT to be beaten by 3 in a 5 horse race
These are the standouts for me with preference for the 520 but I may venture into the other 2 earlier time permitting. Good luck whatever you chose today
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