The horse came in too so plenty of choice and plenty of success.
I will be in Ireland next week and hope to resurrect Live chat again (time permitting with lots of writing to do) -there will be none this week as this is my last week in Guernsey and I've got important things like beer and golf to do.
215 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Yeadon, 3/1 Belinsky, 5/1 Hairs Vital, 8/1 Russian Davis, 14/1 Star Promise, 20/1 Wedding Dream, 50/1 Miss Roma, Tulip Explosion, 66/1 Baby Judge, Mrs Jones And Me.
| DIOMED VERDICT: YEADON has shown more than enough to suggest he can pick up a race like this. |
6 under 50/1 in the betting forecast. In the live market, only 2 under 10/1, and only 5 under 25/1
Another maiden alas but Yeadon has come 2nd and 3rd so has that all important experience
1.13 to place - extreme confidence behind this one to place. No market movers as yet - of course it's always risky backing 2 year olds but from a glass half full perspective, Yeadon has come 3rd in a 16 runner race and 2nd in a 7 runner race (latterly under today's jockey)
Only 3 are under 14/1 and the hope is these 3 youngsters can dominate
I don't like 5 furlong events too much and even less so when 2 year olds are involved. Another possible negative? Fav's debut on all weather.
615 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rhinestone Ruby, 5/2 Souixsanna Vic, 3/1 Ragdollianna, 9/2 Moulin De La Croix, 33/1 Sultana, 100/1 Basford Wayfarer, Meleeha, Tofta Tilly, Tot Hill.
| DIOMED VERDICT: RHINESTONE RUBY was too good for Ragdollianna at Worcester and has scope for improvement |
Only 4 under 33/1 are the ones to concentrate on in this 3 the place 8 runner race
Intriguing race. Now down to 7 runners, but as ever, Betfair remains at 3 places which is a great advantage for us place only backers.
4 horses are under 40/1 only, and it should be these who fight out for the 3 places (of course we are assuming no falls/unseats/pulled ups amongst the top 4)
The front 3 simply cannont be split, priced as they are 2/1 or 9/4 with Moulin de la Croix available as the spoiler at 5/1
It may come to the point that none of these 4 can be discounted so this becomes a simple probability gamble - 4 horses /3 places
In betting forecast order prices are 1.21 , 1.31 , 1.22 , 1.72.
3 of the jockeys on the top 4 are Choc Thornton. AP McCoy and Paddy Brennan - formidable jockeys all.
This is a race I think which needs reconsidering nearer to race time as the market will then begin to show us the more favoured horses and perhaps allow us to take an opinion on one of the 4 main protagonists.
This could be another good lay the place race on one of the outsiders . Their lay prices are currently 7.5 and 10.5 but the market is very illiquid
620 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Stunning View, 5/2 Banyan Tree, 9/2 Zayaan, 6/1 Maverick Man, 20/1 Luddenmore, 50/1 The Bay Bandit, Tramps Like Us, 66/1 Arakan Trail.
4 under 20/1 and a Weld/Smullen odds on favourite - Galway Festival today -is going to be some craic! 1.1 the fav at present for Weld/Smullen to place seems a little low but I suppose accounts for the 3 horses 50/1 or bigger and the sole 20/1 horse
815 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Block Party, 5/2 Sabi Star, 9/2 Altimatum, 8/1 Secret Desert, 14/1 Rinky Dink Lady, 16/1 Highland Lassie, Kimberley Rocks, 33/1 Miskin Flyer, 40/1 Countrystyle Lass, 50/1 Douchkette, Grand Pere, 66/1 Annan Rock.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Sabi Star is respected but BLOCK PARTY, who is rated slightly higher on BHA figures and Racing Post Ratings, gets the verdict. |
Only 3 under 16/1 in yet another maiden 1.12 and 1.31 the front 2.Altimatum is a significant non runner as provisional 3rd fav - this increases the price gap between the front 2 and the rest of the field.
FOOTBALL
Haladas v Arsenal. Arsenal are 1.22 to win. Haladas are an Hungarian side 9th in their league. The did draw 0-0 recently against Elfsborg who won 3-1 recently so perhaps a hint of bus parking when at home against big boys
Looks a provisionally strong Arsenal line up - mostly youngsters but the game is NOT in running which is a slight negative
England under 19 are 1.45 to beat Slovenia under 19.
SHORTLIST
All of those above can really be shortlisted
Of the football bets, the Arsenal look reasonable at 1/5 to get a victory (1.24 betfair) again Hungarian Haladas. again we must bet in the knowledge this is a friendly and wholesale changes are likely in the 2nd half. The squad is strong. The youngsters are strong and, although not in running, the hope is they will prevail. 0-0 cover at 29 costs 3.80 and this may be my play in this match as I cannot see Haladas winning much less score drawing ( famous last words)
Of the horses, 215 Southwell - timeform sees Yeadon as "very hard to beat",
POSITIVES - 3rd and 2nd - the 2nd -the horse was clear of the remainder - always a good sign
Only 3 under 16/1 here too - hint of dead wood?
NEGATIVES - a 2 year old who has only had 2 runs and is obviously still inexperienced. All weather debutant today and over 5 furlongs - not the ideal recipe for success.
Evening races need closer inspection half an hour before the off.
ONE A DAY
I will chance Arsenal today at the tastier 1.23 to win - yes friendlies are terrible betting mediums but is worth the risk when compared against a 1.11 2 year old 5 furlong maiden debutant on the all weather ( who should place with ease I think)
All about the price today
THe evening races look very appealing from a probability race so if you don't like maidens and friendlies, I'll try to update 545pm before the first race at 615
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