Main AIm epitomised my thoughts regarding big meetings - unplaced, but Monsieur was imperious under an imperious, and lucky, ride from Richard Hughes - great to watch
Rangers won with ease.
Honimiere won the 50/50 race so plenty of opportunities yesterday
200 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tawaagg, 7/2 Hintsnallegations, 5/1 Baily Rock, 6/1 Grangeclare Gold, 8/1 Woodland Traveller, 10/1 No Stopping Sarah, 16/1 Logan´s Manor, 20/1 Nephin Lad, 50/1 Onecooleturtle, 66/1 Clifton Pier.
No analysis or prices -will have to buy the newspaper - Tawaag represents Walsh/Mullins and must be considered - Hints and allegations a late non runner has shortened Tawaag to 10/11 in a race where only 4 are under 20/1 - considered
UPDATE 1.12 to place (was 1.15) - 3 at 50/1 or bigger , 2nd fav out, looks a good opportunity -right jockey on board.
315 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Peaceful Rule, 4/1 Granny McPhee, Pacific Bay, 8/1 Ishiadancer, 11/1 Feet Of Fury, Moon Money, 14/1 Unconsoled, 20/1 Virtuality, 25/1 Boy Racer, Magic Haze.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The selection is PEACEFUL RULE (nap) who exceeds the limit for 0-70 maiden company after being reassessed for his recent Beverley effort. |
PRice gapper here returns to maiden company after nose 2nd in handicap last time
UPDATE - still strong at the head of the market. A race with a lot of exposed maidens. Has gone down the 3 losing maidens and then a handicap route and performed very well in said handicap.
10 runners, and only 4 under 10/1
1.3 to place
325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rip Van Winkle, 9/4 Ghanaati, 7/2 Paco Boy, 12/1 Lord Shanakill, 25/1 Forgotten Voice, 33/1 Beacon Lodge, Lahaleeb, 100/1 Mia´s Boy, 200/1 Malibu Bay.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GHANAATI stepped up markedly on her 1000 Guineas-winning form when taking the Coronation at Ascot in great style. Rip Van Winkle is next best. |
Only 3 under 12/1 , only 4 under 25/1. Rip might not run -trainer decision this a.m -at present this looks to concern 3 -a good race to lay an outsider to place ?
Ghanaati the one for support at present, threatening Rip Van Winkle
1.29 , 1.43 , 1.63 to place the front 3
Ghanaati the talking horse from this race - best filly in Europe . Rip not won group 1 company.
Will this be a 3 horse race?
Dutching the front 3 is equivalent to a 1.14 shot which is very interesting. BUT will this be a shock result? After all these are ALL quality animals and we saw with Main Aim yesterday that the market can get it totally wrong
UPDATE
345 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Blackstairmountain, 3/1 Miss Chaparral, 9/2 Megans Joy, 7/1 Abroad, 8/1 Baracas, 12/1 Azana, Hawk Flight, Shes A Singer, 20/1 Action Master, Timisvar, 25/1 En Solitaire, Kingcove, More Gold, Siciliando, 33/1 Peggy Gilhooley, 50/1 Glasson House, 66/1 Camden Princess, Labasheeda,
3rd and 5th favourites are non runners which means Black and Miss are sharing favouratism at 6/4. Both represent big Galway festival stables - Mullins and Weld
1.23 and 1.27 to place
435 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Poppy Seed, 5/1 Nimue, So Surreal, 11/2 Beyond Desire, 6/1 Damietta, 13/2 Bonheurs Art, 8/1 First Term, 12/1 Mystic Millie, 20/1 Specialising.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Market moves for Group-entered Beyond Desire, Nimue or Bonheurs Art would be interesting but perhaps POPPY SEED can make her previous experience count. |
Poppy seed is out - BIG move for Beyond desire now a strong 13/8 favourite - nothing else to go on apart from the market - 1.43 to place
615 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Precious Gem, 13/8 Maurice Utrillo, 6/1 Prayer Boat, 8/1 Karma Lina, 10/1 Screen Diva, 14/1 Modern Day Icon, 16/1 Are You The One, Park Ranger,
20/1 Dynamique, 33/1 Buckle Away, 50/1 Likeitorlovette.
Heffernan/O'Brien and Weld/Smullen are the first 2 horses. 1.27 and 1.22 to place - as ever with these top heavy markets - who to chose? Faith that both will place?
and that's it at time of writing (1030am) in a very very difficult day indeed.
FOOTY
A lot of very illiquid markets at present
Games of interest - Man Utd v Boca
Beijing v Hull
Dagenham redbridge v Brum
Celtic v Dinamo Moscow in the Champions League (not in running)
FC Kopenhagen v Staebeck (in running)
Shaktar v FC Timosaura
SHORTLIST UPDATE
200 Galway - looks good now for Tawaagg with 2nd fav a non runner. Ruby Walsh has won twice already on this fav and looks a probability race to me with 4 only under 20/1
325 GOODWOOD - intriguing and very strong head of the market.
RIP - recovered from the slight concern with the hoof? Not won in group 1 company - 1.33
GHANAATI - top bird! Filly to stamp her authority? - 1.4 to place
I am taken by Ghanaati here I think with the proven group 1 winning form in the hope this is a 4 horse race and there are no Main Aim type surprises as can happen in very hgh quality races
ALTERNATIVES
Dutch the top 3 for a 1.14 equivalent bet
LAy someone like Lahaleeb to place (6) in the hope this is a 3 horse race - equivalent of a 1.19 bet - this horse was simply chosen because of price.
2nd lowest to lay to place is 16.5
FOOTBALL
Under 4.5 goals in the Man utd v Boca Juniors match is 1.14 - the hope is this is tight - 0-0 is only 13 on betfair which hints to me that the market expects early tight exchanges- again another ultimately meaningless match, but by far the strongest opposition of United's pre season to date
Laying first goal odds 0-10 at 6 is the same as 1.19 backing and may be enticing if the market is accurate that this is going to be a tight match
ONE A DAY
FAith for me in the Walsh/Mullins combo for the 200 Galway and the hope is that Tawaagg can ake advantage of the absence of nearest market rival as well as the fact he is one of 4 under 20/1 (and we hope it is these 4 who are the ones to focus on)
Of course all depends on not falling/unseating/being pulled up
Many angles in the 325 Goodwood if this does not take your fancy
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