200 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Cooksgrove Lady, 13/2 Grenoli, 12/1 Lambrini Classic, 20/1 Elusive Swallow, King Rocky, 33/1 Checked Shirt, 50/1 Bandeau Charmer, 100/1 Band Of Brothers.
| DIOMED VERDICT: COOKSGROVE LADY looks head and shoulders above her rivals. |
Good start to the day with a very strong fav in an 8 runner race with 3 places - now 7 runners and 1.05 to place and 1.29 to win.
Again perhaps we could back at 1.29 and lay off at 1.14 (the presumption is the horse is prominent and runs well for a consistent period) - this creates a 1.15 bet
Grenoli is the only horse left under 14/1 and could be a good gamble to place at 1.33 ( a price likely to change given this is 930am)
220 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Dubai Set, 9/2 Primo De Vida, 13/2 Chips O´Toole, 10/1 Kakapuka, Panpiper, 14/1 Avongate, Dark Eyes, West Leake Star, 16/1 Come On Safari, Feeling Fragile, Kapelad Junior, 20/1 Greenore Gordon, 25/1 Candyfloss Girl, 40/1 Knockback, Set In Ice, /1 Trade Fairle,
| DIOMED VERDICT: DUBAI SET, who was second to a useful prospect last time, makes the most appeal of those with experience. Primo de Vida is one of the more interesting newcomers. |
Dubai set is a price gapper in the live betting market ( although I am writing at 915am and a lot can change in the interim) 1.29 to place
UPDATE - STILL STRONG IN THE MARKET AND V PROGRESSIVE FORM BUT YOU TAKE YOUR CHANCES WITH BIG FIELD MAIDENS ESPECIALLY OVER SPRINT DISTANCES
320 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Gallic Star, 5/1 Crown, Middle Club, 6/1 Bikini Babe, Mudaaraah, 7/1 Mistic Magic, 8/1 Bahati, 12/1 Lady Springbank.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GALLIC STAR shaped as if this trip would suit even better when beating a subsequent winner in a 6f Leicester maiden last time and may be good enough to take the step up in grade in her stride. |
Fav has shortened in the live betting market but this is a top flight listed race and so all horses are quality. We have seen before how generally these strong favs underperform 1.43 to place
UPDATE - NOW 7/4 AND STRONG AT THE HEAD OF THE MARKET - 2 YEAR OLD LISTED RACE THOUGH
UPDATE
330 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Angel´s Pursuit, 7/4 Stargaze, 9/2 Avonvalley, 9/1 Emma Jean Lass.
| DIOMED VERDICT: STARGAZE is improving and is preferred to Angel's Pursuit. |
UPDATE
405 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Tatling, 4/1 Godfrey Street, 11/2 Like For Like, 6/1 Compton Classic, 13/2 Diane´s Choice, 10/1 The Name Is Frank, 25/1 Meikle Barfil, 33/1 Nordic Light, Talamahana.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Veteran The Tatling sets a good standard and should prove hard to deny. |
ONLY 5 UNDER 33/1 HERE SHOULD BE THE ONES TO CONCENTRATE ON AND THE TATLING HOLDS ON TO FAVOURATISM AND IS WARM AT 5/4
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NEGATIVES - A CLAIMER
630 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cape Blanco, 9/4 Perfect Symmetry, 7/2 Marfach, 9/2 Miracle Match, 7/1 Kingdom Of Munster.
Ballydoyle fav with Murtagh on board is interesting and Ballydoyle also have the outsider.1.52 to place
FOOTBALL
| 17:00 | Polonia Warszaw vs Juvenes/Dogana | 1/50 | 8/1 | 28/1 |
1.06 to win - could be combined with Cooksgrove lady to place at 1.06 making a combined 1.12 bet?
Over 2.5 goals is 1.29 (but this really is a highly illiquid market and this 1.29 should/could be higher)
1/50 usually means over 2.5 goals should be achieved by the home side alone. 1/12 shots usually bag 3 goals , so 1/50 shots surely shoudl give it a good go
| 19:00 | Galatasaray vs Tobol Kastanay | 1/7 |
Top flight European team against who? 1/7 at home should indicate a simple victory in this Europa league match
SHORTLIST
I had rather pinned my hopes on Cooksgrove lady in the first today to get this nailed early on but had not considered the 1.06 after the non runner.
Now I think , in order to enhance this bet, we can do 2 things - perhaps back Cooksgrove lady to win at 1.29 ,and place a lay bet in running (using keep bets) at 1.14 in the hope this gets triggered in running and creates a return of 1.15
Alternatively we could back Cooksgrove lady to place at current 1.06 and then go to 500pm match and back the 1/50 team at 1.06 to win only . THis creates effectively a 1.12 bet .
Perhaps an update nearer the 2pm kick off to account for hopefully more late non runners. I'm on uncle patrol this afternoon with my brother's 2 young ones so no live chat. Should be back to business hopefully come the weekend,- I want to practice live market reading too because it can be lucrative!
one a day
UPDATE - STICKING WITH MY ORIGINAL ANALYSIS HERE I THINK - COOKSGROVE LADY IN THE 200 UTTOXETER TO PLACE FOLLOWED BY POLONIA WARSAW AT 5PM AT 1.06
ALTERNATIVE. BACK COOKSGROVE LADY AT 1.2 IN THE WIN MARKET AND GET OUT AT 1.07 IN RUNNING
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