7/7

Official bet went down yesterday but those early on livechat would have jumped on blue tomato in the first
Elfsborg won too and there were plenty of additional place only bets through the day.
Writing the blog early, I missed a significant late withdrawal in Caribbean Coral which opened things up somewhat for Sams Cross and I would have loved to have been notified of that non runner earlier as this was an 8 runner race reduced to 7 and 3 places. Originally 2 strong market leaders, one out and an ideal opportunity, better than the 2 the place maiden I wrongly opted for

Another early blog today and live chatters will be at an advantage as we can react to significant non runners and indeed market support ( Blue tomato yesterday) on a race by race basis and nail the one a day before the "official " bet becomes active.

245 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Beauchamp Viceroy, 11/2 Old Romney, 13/2 Northern Desert, Quick Off The Mark, 8/1 Obe Royal, 12/1 Sotik Star, 16/1 Straight Face, 25/1 Everyman, Why Nee Amy, 33/1 Amber Moon, Hi Spec, Strategic Knight, 40/1 Rosemarkie.

DIOMED VERDICT: It will be disappointing if the 84-rated BEAUCHAMP VICEROY can't end a long losing spell dropped to selling level for the first time.

Price gapper here but a hint of desparation dropping to selling company in search of a glimmer of hope.2nd fav a non runner should accentuate the price gap. 1.17 to place

345 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Diamond Laura, 3/1 Art Jewel, 4/1 Kate Skate, 5/1 Gulf Punch, 14/1 One Cool Deal, Vaduz, 33/1 Arken Lad, 100/1 Rivitivo, Three Sons.

DIOMED VERDICT: DIAMOND LAURA looks the one to beat, providing she can repeat her best form on the back of a break.

Big class drop for the fav here ( hence the form figures which don't read too well BUT they were in class 1's)
Only 4 under 14/1 and if no smoke and mirrors or other signals amongst the remainder, looks a decent enough opportunity to place at least in the hope this is a 4 runner race 1.26 to place

445 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Red Cadeaux, 9/2 The Last Alzao, 13/2 La Rosa Nostra, 8/1 Ameeq, Bushy Dell, 12/1 Hucking Heat, 16/1 Baan, 20/1 Shanavaz, 25/1 Tilapia, 33/1 Twill, 50/1 Desert Leader.

DIOMED VERDICT: The unexposed RED CADEAUX (nap) can follow up last week's C&D win as he looks ahead of the handicapper turned out under a penalty.

Price gapper in a class 5 handicap - is he " ahead of the handicapper"? 1.25 to place

500 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Gibb River, 2/1 Alqaffay, 3/1 Times Up, 6/1 Watchoverme, 200/1 Masking Baldini, Transporter.

DIOMED VERDICT: The drop back in class and return to 1m4f can help GIBB RIVER get off the mark.

THere are so many maidens on the card today. This, from a probability perspective, looks one of the more likely. Big drop in class. 2 clear outsiders and hopefully 3 vying for 2 places, but we saw yesterday , 3 vyig for 2 places and my choice was 3rd! 1.47 to place .Interestingly watch over me is 6 to lay which is 1.19 equivalent back. Hopefully this race will revolve aroud the first 3 placing in the first 2?

700 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Red Rock Canyon, 5/1 Fleeting Moment, 7/1 Shamiran, 8/1 Black Coffee, 10/1 Hampstead Heath, Quench The Flame, 12/1 Britannicus, Choctaw Nation, Miss Chaparral, 14/1 Effortless, 20/1 Clayton Chief, Green To Gold, Odin´s Raven, 25/1 Little Matt,

Aiden O'Brien/ Murtagh on a price gapper merits respect. NOTE - heavy ground and obviously not one of the stable's leading lights 1.22 to place in an illiquid market

740 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Swiss Art, 5/1 Iron Out, 13/2 Silent Treatment, 7/1 Peace Concluded, 10/1 Aboukir, Legnani, Off Hand, 12/1 Isabella Romee, 25/1 Romantic Interlude, Topcroft, 33/1 Strevelyn, 40/1 Wicklewood, 50/1 Terrymene Prince.

DIOMED VERDICT: The return to Southwell may well enable SWISS ART to make it course win number four.

Price gapper albeit in a claimer 1.29 to place

750 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Any Given Day, Persian Warrior, 7/2 Danetime Panther, 10/1 Rampant Ronnie, 16/1 Chalentina, The Black Lion, 25/1 Climaxtackledotcom, Hammer, 33/1 Calusa Lily, 40/1 Basford Wayfarer, Raisthorpe, 50/1 Blush Tone, Ormond Lad, 100/1 Dancing Danoli, Handsome Chap, Jellytot.

DIOMED VERDICT: DANETIME PANTHER is capable of better and receives weight from the previous winners.

Fav now odds on so fancied of the joint favs.1.21 to place

FOOTBALL

19:15

FC Wacker Innsbruck vs Hamburg

6/1

3/1

4/11

Not available on betfair but HAmburg are proven and FC Wacker I know nothing about. CAution though - Friendly and you can only bet wit someone like Ladbrokes for this game

DC united 1.22 to beat Harrisburg in the US Open Cup. Again just going by prices, my guess is Harrisburg are lower league opposition

SHORTLIST
Kev Lane at Lay PRofit Alert sums it up well. As a layer he cannot put anything up with reasonable confidence because of the race types we are faced with. Poor stuff indeed.Wolves, for instance, begins maiden, maiden, maiden, seller, claimer.
Pontefract begins nursery, maiden, handicap, handicap, handicap.
Southwell - seller, maiden handicap, claimer, maiden
A day where I could have done with a kind of Elfsborg bet.
3 today are taking a big drop in class. I feel there's an element of "desparation stakes" about some of the drops in class, so perhaps a hint that these horses are not the finest!!

245 WOLVES
Beauchamp Viceroy is one of those class droppers, has Ryan Moore in the plate today, and the market speaks for him at 1.17 to place. Plying his trade predominantly in class 1 to class 3 company.
6 horses are at 25/1 or bigger leaving 5 in it you would hope.

445 WOLVES
Red Cadeaux, if indeed ahead of the handicapper, has a fine chance of at least placing

700 ROSSCOMMON
Tricky to call this. When you see an Aiden O'Brien/Jonny Murtagh horse odds on and price gapper, then normally it's a shoe in for a place.
Red Rock CAnyon has certainly been doing the group 1 thing but as a team player rather than a horse expected to land the spoils
Heavy ground today but he has been on that ground. Disappointing when expected to win last time ( I was on for the place) and he was poor over a shorter distance than today's. Perhaps he's not a sprinting type and the distance will play into his hands tonight?

750 UTTOXETER
The non runner I have been looking for?
DAnetime panther is significant as he leaves the front 2 well clear-the only 2 under 12/1 , 2 of 3 under 33/1

ONE A DAY
I think an opportunity has presented itself with the 750 UTTOXETER on a day where the opportunities are poor indeed. Tomorrow sees some great racing, and I got Electric Warrior in the last race yesterday evening (as live chatters will attest) so there is no great rush personally for a selection today.
Any given day I suppose as default, in a race where we will have to consult the market nearer off time given it's some 7 hours till race off