1/7

Lost connection last night on live chat alas but left you with a winner at least
one a days came in and there were other place alternatives on the live chat too which were successful

I don't think I'll be touching Murray today after his 4 hour excursions last time. And that was as a 1.07 shot! Today he's 1.14! So you can perhaps guage performance today. Layable at 1.14? Most certainly. £100 profit for £14 liability has no real downside and I suspect the price will rise at some point.

230 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Contract Caterer, 5/2 Jutland, 11/2 Aquarian Spirit, 6/1 Desert Forest, 25/1 Blue Emirate, 40/1 Blue Bond, William Arnold.
DIOMED VERDICT: CONTRACT CATERER is well capable of winning a race of this nature, but it wouldn't be the greatest surprise if Jutland proved a stumbling block and Aquarian Spirit is another newcomer to note.

Right folks, you know the drill. Mark Johnston debutant in a maiden ( Jutland) + money for it = place back.
Only 2 places alas and an odds on fav who has had the 2 runs. At time of writing Jutland is 7/2 and not fancied.
Contract caterer a head second last time out 1.27 to place Contract caterer and the only one, by a country mile, under 2.00 in the place market.
No sign of any support for the Johnston horse as I write


250 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Backstage, 6/1 Lord Samposin, 8/1 Flash Cummins, 14/1 Solway Star, 20/1 Sole Trader, 33/1 Brocks Brae, Kalatime, 50/1 Izearzabak.

A fall back bet today this one? " Hard to beat" 1.27 win / 1.08 place
8 runners - 3 places

320 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Top Mark, 3/1 Dishdasha, 13/2 Helvic Head, 12/1 Safari Adventures, 16/1 Putitawayforayear, 50/1 Flying Forme, 100/1 More Shennanigans.
DIOMED VERDICT: TOP MARK looked useful last time and can strike again.

He either wins well or bombs out this fav! Only 2 places. Only 4 horses under 25/1 should be involved for the 2 places 1.3 to place and only 2 places

330 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Summer Dancer, 5/1 Bold Marc, 6/1 Turn Me On, 7/1 Woodsley House, 12/1 Kabis Amigos, 14/1 Border Owl, Jonny Lesters Hair, 16/1 Tina´s Best, 25/1 Nuit Sombre, 33/1 Fitzolini.
DIOMED VERDICT: SUMMER DANCER (nap) looked good once in the clear at Beverley last Tuesday and should win if in the same form again.

Multiple handicap winner on a hatrick. The key is determining whether he can squeeze out another win or if the sequence will end as it inevitably does. At this stage the market is not wholly positive or negative 1.5 to place hints perhaps this may not be his day

600 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bankrobber, 2/1 Reggae Dancer, 5/1 Musical Rain, 8/1 Bangathelatch, 10/1 Arcadian Dream, 12/1 Paydaar, 14/1 Jumbo Steps, 25/1 Dan Noir, 50/1 Rio´Ll Chancer.

This new format for the betting site is rubbish with Diomed crap and nothing for the Irish racing today.
Anyway REggae dancer is an Aiden O'Brien likely improver and I suspect he won't be out of the frame if improving again after 2 recent runs 1.29 place - highly illiquid market

730 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Heart Shaped, 9/2 Maoineach, 5/1 Festoso, Luminous Eyes, 7/1 Chantilly Tiffany, 10/1 Kalidaha, 12/1 Miss Gorica, 14/1 Aleagueoftheirown, 16/1 Monivea, 20/1 Alexander Youth, Glowing, Mooretown Lady.

Ballydoyle fav backed 1.47 place but no money in market

750 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Emirates Sports, 11/2 Ilie Nastase, 13/2 Miss Glitters, 8/1 Nice To Know, Quirina, Sparton Duke, 10/1 Jake The Snake, Solo Attempt, 14/1 Mister New York, 20/1 Trafalgar Square, 25/1 Master Fong, Portugese Caddy, 33/1 Sammy The Snake,
DIOMED VERDICT: EMIRATES SPORTS, who held a Derby entry at one stage and should be suited by this step up in trip, is an intriguing contender.

Like last night, Frankie staying until quite late to ride Emirates Sports 1.36 place here

SHORTLIST
230 CATTERICK
1.27 for Contract caterer is appealing given the glut of decent prices on offer today.
Head 2nd last time out
2nd and 3rd in betting are debutants and market must be consulted especially with Jutland

250 PERTH - BAckstage 1.27 to win and 1.08 place. I don't really like under 1.10 - yesterday the bet was 1.12 but battered into 1.06 at the off -that was just market forces.
Here, dare we risk the 1.27 win and put a lay bet in at 1.11 to create a 1.16 equivalent bet ( the idea is the horse runs as a 1/3 shot should and this is reflected in his shortening price

600 FAIRYHOUSE - Reggae dancer is 1.29 to place but the betting site offers no analysis on this race but on the main site, they put a compelling argument forth for BAnkrobber, currently 1.16

730 FAIRYHOUSE- Heart shaped making seasonal debut hence the cautious pricing on this BAllydoyle one

TENNIS
Federer is 1.11 to get past Karlovic.Set betting 3-0 is 2.02 indicates that perhaps Karlo may nick a set. I suspect there will be tie breakers as Karlo should be able to hold his serve quite a bit.

FOOTBALL
Italy are 1.19 under 20's to beat Libya (that powerhouse of international football) under 20's

ONE A DAY
230 CATTERICK - looks a 4 horse race and 2 places here. Contract caterers a head 2nd in a class 4 maiden last time and returns to class 5 today. 2 horses are at 50/1 and can hopefully be discounted completely.
Jutland and Aquarius Spirit are the debutants for whom late money could arrive. Desert forest has had the 2 runs.So an interesting 4some with Contract caterers holding firm at 4/5 Included because the 1.27 on offer is good enough and the only horse under 2.00 in the place market.
We always run a risk with 2 time outers in maidens - especially 2 year olds, running against debutants.

For those not averse to maidens, perhaps the next, albeit at greater risk, may entice.

250 PERTH -I will chance BAckstage in the win market today at 1.27 to trade out in running at ,hopefully, 1.11 offering a 1.16 bet .1.08 of course is good for the place but a little short for compounding

A look at the head to heads and Fed has never been beaten by Karlovic. There have been many tie breaks - 12 in fact in 22 total sets which is quite something. These are really coin tosses and it's the luck at that particular point which could swing a set one way or another.
I expect Fed to prevail but suspect that the 1.11 is a little too short initially for involvement and if rising above 1.17 -1.20 or higher this should be a great one a day opportunity

I'm happy with these today as the main focus and going in time order hope to have the one a day nailed early.
Contract caterers will be the first port of call and if I have the opportunity to do live chat then that will seal whether I intend to place back or not based on money coming in for 2 debutants - especially the Johnston horse.