Live chat has been most frustrating this week with difficult racing abounding. We have hardly been given a chance as YET ANOTHER mostly debutant maiden replaces a sprint handicap where the favourite is 4/1 and the outsider 11/1.
Patience, Patience,Patience I think.
225 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Balthazaar´s Gift, 4/1 Regal Parade, 6/1 Nashmiah, 15/2 Ocean´s Minstrel, 10/1 Red Dune, 11/1 Hartley, 12/1 Celtic Sultan, 20/1 Carcinetto, Ilie Nastase,
| DIOMED VERDICT: BALTHAZAAR'S GIFT (nap) looks a notch above this opposition and can prove too strong for Regal Parade. |
Faith in Diomed's assessment a a notch above this opposition - beware draw bias at Chester 1.53 the place
230 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Devoted To You, 9/2 Rahya Cass, 11/2 Brushed Aside, 7/1 Della´Alba, 12/1 Midnight Mover, 14/1 Christmas Light, 16/1 Central Moves, Hilary, 25/1 Dainty Steps, 33/1 Kims Dream, Miss Poole, 50/1 Pink Tulip.
No live prices up yet, but Devoted to you represents Ballydoyle, has had the one run , and is expected to improve for the experience - betfair market illiquid - currently 1.43 the place but may change with more money
400 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Alsace Lorraine, 11/2 Diggeratt, 6/1 Aim To Achieve, 7/1 Silver Games, 8/1 Ainia, Miss Mojito, 10/1 Desert Kiss, Izzibizzi, 14/1 Al Sabaheya.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ALSACE LORRAINE can complete her hat-trick in 1m handicaps, with Diggeratt next best. |
On a hatrick, a couple of non runners. Will be interesting to see whether the market speaks in favour of the hatrick coming in or not. Frank on boaard 1.43 the place and 7 runners and 3 places - we must consult the market as this is a multiple handicap winner who will lose eventually, and has the beret wearer onboard.
405 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Social Grace, 15/8 She´s Ok, 7/1 Just Mandy, 12/1 Art Summer, 16/1 Red Roar, Wijikura, 25/1 Rightcar, 40/1 Hot Rod Mamma, 66/1 Crystal Bridge.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SHE'S OK, whose form was boosted big time this week, earns a narrow verdict over better drawn Social Grace. |
4 horse race -front 2 dominating? BUT 5 f maiden and a few debutants who will need monitoring in the market 1.28 and 1.34 to place the front 2 - as ever with top heavy markets there is a chance one of the shorties will get unplaced - but which one?
430 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Famous Name, 9/2 Staying On, 8/1 Deauville Vision, 10/1 Chintz, 12/1 Estrela Brage, Red Rock Canyon, Rockhampton, 20/1 Finicius.
The big Irish names can generally be trusted on board shories -8 runners - 3 places - interesting that Red Rock Canyon is a big price - they got a win out of him last time out 1.09 the place a tad stingy.
440 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Act Of Kalanisi, 9/2 Dolly Penrose, 6/1 Zuwaar, 7/1 Aleatricis, 9/1 Sir Sandicliffe, 11/1 Dantari.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ACT OF KALANISI, open to plenty more improvement at this trip and proven on the track, has plenty going for him. |
As live chatters can attest yesterday, Joe Fanning is THE number one on Johnston horses. Guillembert I have my reservations about. It would seem that, like Alanbrooke, if there is sustained confident support, then perhaps a place bet (although only 2 places) 1.52 to place does not mirror great confidence
455 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Barynya, 9/2 Pete´s Passion, 5/1 Shaws Diamond, 17/2 Langland Bay, 12/1 In Secret, 16/1 Elements, Fine Silk, 50/1 Alacity.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A weak race for the track and a suitable-looking opportunity for regally-bred BARYNYA to land that all-important win. |
Stoute/Moore combo deserve attention on shorties 1.09 to place - again v short but as I am writing early the market forces throughout have not really taken off and I hope to see a more competitive price for place backers a bit nearer race time
635 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Africa´s Star, 3/1 What A Fella, 10/1 Maigh Eo, Mary West, Paddy Jack, Rightcar Lewis, 14/1 Badtanman, Whisper Softly, 20/1 Gelert, Tarus, 25/1 Arriva La Diva, 66/1 Sokoke.
| DIOMED VERDICT: AFRICA'S STAR, from an in-form yard, has a clear chance at the weights and should go well with the headgear left off. Don't really fancy top heavy races as we see, time and again, one of the 2 not placing. Here we have 2 price gaps, - 1st to 2nd, then 2nd to 3rd fav. Sufficient support for Africa may clinch it 1.41 and 1.88 the front 2 to place 725 SALISBURY BETTING FORECAST: Evs Lean Machine, 7/1 Cafe Greco, White Dart, 8/1 Blakey´s Boy, 14/1 Themanforacrisis, 16/1 Caucus, Valiant Knight, 20/1 Pebblesonthebeach, Saint Thomas, 25/1 Royal Etiquette, 33/1 Brave Ghurka, 40/1 Bury St Edmunds.
Now that's a price gap, but we must put it in context. A maiden with only one ru n installed as odds on hot pot in a race with 10 2 year old debutants. Must have impressed on sole run, and how on earth do we know how this juvenile will perform on 2nd run as he's still learning 1.23 to place FOOTY USA take on Haiti at midnight after their 2-0 win over Honduras last time (admittedly I did not recognise the goalscorers - just hope there is no shuffling of the pack against perceived inferior opposition) I backed them at 1/4 and they obliged, and should do so again if showing a glimmer of Confederations Cup form. 1.32 to win Elsewhere some friendlies, eg Leicester take the eye at 4/9 away to TAmworth and WAterford 4/11 v Finn Harps SHORTLIST As live chatters will attest, big meetings and apparent good things do not really go hand in hand - plenty of money lost on the shorties throughout the week at Newmarket, so bear this in mind if you see a big price gapper at a competitive high quality meeting. We have also faced this week numerous races where they are not really betting mediums, even if there are potential signals. Hopefully today, we can eek out a one a day somewhere which avoids he apparent competitiveness and also avoids those bad betting medium races. First off, USA at 1/5 against that World Football Collossus ,erm, Haiti, look solid at home at midnight and seems to be a far more straighforward bet than any of he competitive horse racing today. 430 CURRAGH Famous Name for Weld/Smullen looks as if he can place here. Well backed even this early. Concern is there are 2 Ballydoyle representatives in the sideline waiting to pounce. 1.09 is a terrible price really but I suppose reflects confidence in the horse. 455 YORK - Barynya looks another primed to place ,but again at a price that reflects his chances. 7 runners and 3 places-1.11 at present and 3 places |
725 SALISBURY - a whopping price gap on Lean Machine here, but danger lurks - one time outer may still not replicate only run. Debutants abound too, and any involvement will need to be after assessing the live betting market just before the off
ONE A DAY
Must really be USA for me v the mighty Haiti. As long as they field a strong 11 . This is a Concacef Gold Cup game, so a little bit wary there - is this top priority for USA and ,if not, will they field a weakened side?
Of the horses, Famous NAme looks the one most likely for Weld/Smullen-430 Curragh. Expect the 1.09 to increase slightly through the day as the markets become more liquid
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