The 500 LEicester was the race and Seaway went off odds on after original 1st and 2nd favs Merdaam and Ottoman Empire became non runners - again reaction to circumstances - and wellbefore the Rosenborg game luckily!
The 6 runner race with 3 only under 33/1 was a winner for one a day
235 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Emerald Commander, 8/1 Haatheq, Lean Machine, Poltergeist, 12/1 Texan Star, 14/1 Banana Republic, Chain Of Events, 16/1 Il Portico, Mandarin Express, Spa´s Dancer, Ultravox, 25/1 Walcot Square, 33/1 Fancy Star, Gene Autry, Helaku, 40/1 Apostle Of Rome, Gordon Flash, 66/1 Claimant.
| DIOMED VERDICT: EMERALD COMMANDER ran very promisingly in an above-average Newmarket maiden last week and it will probably take a good one to lower his colours. |
Only 2 under 12/1 in the betting forecast, and it's that old story about a market leader who's only previous run was full of promise, expected to win this biggish field maiden 1.41 to place - update at 115pm - has hardened in the betting
115PM UPDATE
245 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tasmeem, 9/4 Benrish, 7/2 Running Mate, 11/2 Hill Of Miller, 14/1 Jamarjo, 20/1 Law Of Attraction, 33/1 Field Elect, 100/1 Shercon,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Positive market signals for Tasmeem would be very significant but, as things stand, BENRISH is taken to build on the promise of his Ayr debut. |
Very tricky given most are newcomers in this maiden but Benrish is a significant non runner and there's only 6 left now with 3 places
3 under 10/1
Tasmeen anad Running mate both 1.3 in a 3 the place race full of risk given debutants and maiden
115PM UPDATE
255 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Visions Of Johanna, 9/4 King Supreme, 5/1 Maadraa, 11/2 Locum, 12/1 Game Roseanna.
| DIOMED VERDICT: No guaranteed front-runner but that shouldn't bother 1m winner VISIONS OF JOHANNA. |
Locum is a non runner and there's one clear outsider
1.3 for the main 2 to place (or to beat one to place!)
310 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Showcasing, 5/2 Walkingonthemoon, 5/1 Avonrose, 10/1 Deal, Hearts Of Fire, 16/1 Duplicity, 25/1 Royal Desert,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Walkingonthemoon should go well if the ground is good or on the soft side but looks vulnerable to the more scopey SHOWCASING. |
Listed event and only 3 under 10/1 -fav is strongly fancied but is a class riser and listed races are naturally made up of top quality horses 1.25 and 2 places and live chatters have seen the folly of 2 the place place betting recently
Now 5/6 and hardened at the head of the betting as I update at 115pm - last 2 have been class 5 and class 4, now in class 1 listed company!
355 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Cobo Bay, 3/1 Prime Exhibit, 6/1 Jack Cool, 8/1 Ansells Pride, 10/1 Satwa Gold, Toto Skyllachy, 14/1 Full Victory, 16/1 Brouhaha, Hustle.
| DIOMED VERDICT: COBO BAY (nap) is due to go up 5lb in future handicaps following his good second at Ayr and he has shown even better form in the past. |
Cobo Bay, home to the Rockmount where I am going to see a U2 tribute act on Sunday, looks well in here in this now 7 runner race with hopefully still 3 places 1.39 in an illiquid market
Amy Ryan claims 5 and rode Cobo to 2nd of 11 last time out
430 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Phoenix Enforcer, 7/2 Moggy, 13/2 King´s Chorister, 8/1 Independent James, Paymaster In Chief, 12/1 Nouailhas, 16/1 Fleur De´Lion, 20/1 Black Nun.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PHOENIX ENFORCER comes out clear best on adjusted BHA ratings and her trainer has a good strike-rate in sellers. Price gapper in a seller - 1.23 to place -UPDATE - now strong odds on shot but we must account for the race type - BUT 3 places 455 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Ashram, 7/2 Bonnie Charlie, 9/2 The Cheka, 8/1 Summer Fete, 20/1 Tropical Paradise, 40/1 Kaabari.
A 3 horse race (4 at a stretch) for 2 places. Diomed is sweet on Frankie's mount 1.38 to place 505 NOTT BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Phillipina, 13/2 Silk And Satin, 8/1 Samaaha, 16/1 Bessie Lou, 20/1 Park Melody, 33/1 Anessia, 40/1 Nawojka, Salamon, 50/1 Seeking Faith, 150/1 Hindford Oak Sioux, Noble Attitude.
Fillies have their minds on make up and shopping but this is quite a price gap and the hint of a "hard to beat" and these tend to place regularly - the default bet today perhaps if there is nothing better? 1.07 to place - may be a case of taking our medicine today in a poor day? 905 KILBEGGAN BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Huckle Buck Shoe, 5/1 Miss Mary Mac, 6/1 Logan´s Manor, 7/1 Butlers Glen, 8/1 Celia´s Express, Irish To The Core, 10/1 Daneva, Plan Of Action, Running Dale, 12/1 Eyelash Island, 14/1 Cordless, 16/1 Belville View, 20/1 Bemo Three, Kizmehoney, 25/1 Cailin Blath, 33/1 Tungsten Steel, Price gapper in an unappetising evening ,simply because this is a Mullins horse in a bumper - fav by reputation/ - highly illiquid market THe Spuds are away to Harry's old club Bourmenouth tonight and are 1/4 and should prevail of course but this is a friendly 1.3 NOT IN RUNNING SHORTLIST 235 NEWBURY - Emaerald commander 1.35 now to place - a 10 point swing from when I first wrote the blog earlier. BUT only one run - how can we be sure he will replicate in a big field maiden 245 NOTT MUST be of interest with the non runners - 6 runners left and 3 places - perhaps running mate -with the experience under his belt , will NOT get beaten by 3 other horses ? 505 NOTT - Phillipina looks a good selection based on nothing more than the price gap could be enhanced by backing at 1.55 and trying to get out at 1.30 in running ( assumption is the horse will run as his price and reduce at least .25 points to allow for an equivalent 1.25 bet. - ONE A DAY 245 Nott is yet another probability race BUT who to chose? There are 3 under 10/1 so that's a starting point. 3 have run before versus 3 debutants The shortest priced horse with experience is Running Mate at 2/1 and surely he will run as price dictates? The fav Tasmeem is a $130,000 horse and a debutant and is currently 6/4. Good flat stable - do you follow the market or opt for shortest priced horse with experience? 505 NOTT- Phillipina has run in some big top class races and deserves the 1/2 quote. 1 mile 3 furlongs a niggle as is the jockey who takes over from Ryan Moore as the former can claim 5 lbs. This, I think, will be my one a day to back to win at current 1.54 and place a lay bet in running to trigger at 1.30. Currently 1.08 to place which is rising and may hit 1.1? So take your pick. Of course, as ever, if I can do the live chat, no doubt we will have the advantage of market movers and late non runners allowing us to alter from the above 2 which have the disadvantage of pre race information only |
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