Tuesday, 8 September 2009

8/9

Danny's choice consented to win so my 3.5 lay price was eventually hit so job done. The front 2 quite obviously placed here so job done however you approached this opportunity

150 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mcmurdo Sound, 5/2 Timocracy, 7/1 Mesbaah, 8/1 Clarricien, 14/1 Stormin Heart, 16/1 Andorn, 20/1 Flashy Max, 33/1 Reve Du Roi, 100/1 Glamoroso, Night Reveller, 200/1 Miss Greystown, Piccolo Pride.

DIOMED VERDICT: TIMOCRACY was decent on his day on the Flat and goes hurdling in a weak race. McMurdo Sound is the one he has to beat.

McCoy on the fav with 5 only under 16/1 -big potential move for Andorn and these have been winning lately, these price movers.
Maiden hurdle this and only a 2 miler so there's less distance to mess things up - faith in AP?
1.22 to place

320 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Folly Bridge, 5/1 Freeforaday, 11/2 Young Simon, 13/2 Diamond Johnny G, 10/1 Maashooq, 12/1 Mystic Millie, Rose Aurora, 16/1 Quaestor, Rum King, 40/1 Pie Poudre, 50/1 Seeking Stardom, 66/1 Barafundle Boy, Casanova Kid, 100/1 Restyle,

DIOMED VERDICT: FOLLY BRIDGE's debut third to a well-regarded winner at Salisbury last month looks decent form and she sets the standard.

Price gapper now accentuated by the absence of 3rd and 4th favs -maiden race though and yet again another one time outer expected to automatically reproduce his sole run 1.11 to place - I may be swayed by the 2 non runners

445 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 It´s A Roofer, 13/2 Fred Bojangals, Sarahs Gift, 8/1 Keene Spirit, Putitawayforayear, 9/1 Storm Prospect, 10/1 I´m Your Man, Treeko, 12/1 Dead Mans Dante, Young Henno, 14/1 Peak Seasons, 25/1 Panthers Run, Toulouse Express.

DIOMED VERDICT: Preference is for IT'S A ROOFER who should appreciate the return to this trip.

Another move for Sarahs Gift into 2/1 / 7/4 , same as last time. On a hatrick here again 1.57 to place

455 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Mister Tee, 11/2 Jamaayel, 6/1 My Mood, 8/1 Nidian, West Coast Dream, 12/1 Boxer Beat, Hilary, 14/1 Legitimate Fraud, 16/1 Pink Lemonade, 20/1 Angelina Coralina, Baveno, Footprint, One For Joules, 33/1 Non Tiscordardime,

Now 1/3 with Murtagh in the plate. Mister Tee has good placed form and the right guy on board to ensure another placed run? 1.13 to place

725 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dohasa, 11/2 Gluteus Maximus, 7/1 Dahindar, 8/1 Lastkingofscotland, Tis Mighty, 10/1 Magic Mornings, 12/1 Signal Fire, 14/1 Augustusthestrong, 16/1 Spirit Of Xaar, 20/1 Gist, 25/1 He´s Got Rhythm, Prince Of Light, 33/1 Shakuru, Slapper,

Move for Signal Fire under Weld/Smullen -watch out too for Gluteus Maximus for O'Brien/Murtagh 1.27 Dohassa to place

FOOTBALL
Russia under 21's face Andorra today and are 1.04 to win - scores when these odds are put up are generally 3-0 , 4-0, 5-0 1.14 half time in a very illiquid market which DOES NOT GO IN RUNNING
Half time/full time is another option as is over 2.5 goals in order to boost the odds - worked for the Spanish boys yesterday
Ireland v South Africa is a friendly this evening and all the Premiership stars have returned so it's fringe players for Ireland this evening and a possible layable opportunity for this PR exercise which is meaningless
ITaly under 21 v Luxembourg under 21 this evening. Luxembourg boys managed a 1-0 away win last game at Bosnia but the Italians should have too much 1.06 again indicates goals and a potential double up with Ruskies? You'd get better odds backing Ruskies first and then rolling over to ITaly as Betfair Multiples are poor value

SHORTLIST
320 LING - Folly Bridge is a one time out maiden BUT 3rd and 4th favs are non runners
455 Dundalk - Mister Tee has great placed form and also Murtagh onboard - backed to win today and hopful of a place worse case scenario
BAcking both Russia and ITaly should be a trouble free 1.10 equivalent bet.

ONE A DAY
Mister Tee for me albeit in an illiquid market at the moment. Folly bridge could be risked if you decide that the 2 non runners were SIGNiFICANT enough rivals to make it far better for him to place. My concern with these 1 time out maiden 2 year olds is that they are hit and miss in replicating form - will the 2 non runners sway you to backing to place?
The football bets rolled on Russia to Italy should produce a 1.10 return
All shortlisters then have good credentials but Mister Tee looks my one to be on given the number of 2's in the form and Murtagh onboard.

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