| Soccer > Standard v Arsenal : Match Odds | Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections |
| Selection | Odds | Stake(£) | Bid type | Placed | Profit/loss(£) | |
| Arsenal | 5.00 | 200.00 | Back | 16-Sep-09 20:02 | 800.00 | |
| Arsenal | 3.85 | 259.74 | Lay | 16-Sep-09 20:32 | -740.26 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | 800.00 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | -740.26 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 59.74 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.2%: | 2.51 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 57.23 | |||||
Arsenal scored to make it 2-1 and the odds reduced to 3.85 as you can see above, and I laid off.
If I had kept this bet, I would have made £740 profit backing a 1/2 shot at 4/1 as Arsenal won 3-2, but I settled on the £57 guaranteed profit early -and yes, you can guess the swear jar is over flowing , but my contention is that I cannot foretell the future and would rather a profit in hand now than the prospect of more at a later time (with the attendant losses if it doesn't come in)
As mentioned in the blog yesterday, this game filled the criteria for an enhanced bet - I mentioned the gulf in class between Beligian and Premier league so I was confident Arsenal would redress the balance
Further, one of the goals was a dubious penalty, and these penalties are not down to any creativity by the home side - they can happen to either side regardless of ability. So, for me, 2-0 was rather flattering to Standard.
These enhanced bets keep popping up, and there's no reason you cannot replicate this.
Well I went for Captain Flasheart yesterday
| Horse Racing > Yarm 16th Sep : To Be Placed | Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections |
| Selection | Odds | Stake(£) | Bid type | Placed | Profit/loss(£) | |
| Captain Flasheart | 1.27 | 200.00 | Back | 16-Sep-09 13:40 | 54.00 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | 54.00 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | 0.00 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 54.00 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.2%: | 2.27 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 51.73 | |||||
Liverpool were battered in from 1.12 at time of writing yesterday to 1.09 at the off. All value gone really but obliged. Those tempted by half time 1.39 have Dirk Kuyt to thank - a typical edgy European night when Liverpool are involved
Sevilla won 2-0 for those tempted at big odds and FC Mitjelland won 3-1 continuing the good results for ultra shorties in the Danish Cup, so all shortlisters performed admirably.
Start with Footy today
| 18:00 | Ajax vs Timisoara | 1/3 |
| 18:00 | Hertha Berlin vs Ventspils | 1/4 |
| 20:05 | Nacional vs Werder Bremen | 13/5 | 23/10 | 5/6 |
Nacional have drawn both home games in the league 1-1 but been beaten away - 3-0 by Porto - I would put Werder above Porto in terms of ability so perhaps we can get an idea regarding possible scoreline ( being optimistic as Werder at 5/6 )
| 20:05 | Villarreal vs Levski Sofia | 1/6 |
| 20:05 | Lazio vs Salzburg | 2/5 |
| 20:05 | Benfica vs BATE Borisov | 1/3 |
I wouldn't touch Everton with stolen money this evening - they simply have not clicked thus far, and I doubt that this competition is high on the roster for this coming season
De Graafshap v Fortuna Sittup 1.27 - 4 wins from 4 at home and hold a clear advantage over opponents in head to heads. HAve been scoring freely at home so the odds look realistic. I'm no Dutch 2nd division expert but this looks about right
240 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rigidity, 9/4 Bab Al Shams, 8/1 Temple Fair, 9/1 Light The City, 20/1 Green For Luck, 100/1 Carlcol Girl,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Dewhurst entry RIGIDITY sets a decent standard and will be hard to beat. |
A "hard to beat" selection , only 2 horses under 11/1 , one selection at 100/1 can be discounte, leaves 5 horses and 2 places
2 places and a maiden are the negatives but the front 2 horses pretty much make up the book, and the hope is this will concern only these 2 at the business end - 1.18 to place Rigidity - I do find these " hard to beat" selections placing often, but 2 places mean we have no room for errors
It's Cecil versus Godolphin -will these 2 dominate?
Preference nearer the race time would be for the clear market leader who is Rigidity - another one time out performer expected to repeat initial encouraging run
255 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Augustusthestrong, 9/4 Duc De Savoie, 8/1 High Magic, 10/1 Fedora, 20/1 Shakuru, 25/1 Owner Occupier, Soldier Of Mercy, 33/1 Coosan Belle, Future Earner, Glorach, Moher Lady, Wheresmeneckstrap, 50/1 Aljohara, Angels Game, Born To Excel, Cloud Chaser,
Aiden O'Brien favourite here should improve for his 2 runs - 1.2 to place so there is a degree of confidence in the Betfair place market. Big field maiden though and at a provincial track in Kerry
440 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Veiled, 15/8 Saborido, 10/1 Cavendish, 16/1 Alittlemoreflair, Wannarock, 20/1 Present.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Only SABORIDO and Veiled can be given a realistic chance, with preference for Saborido. |
3rd fav a non runner should enhance the chances of the 1st 2, but 7 lb claimer Rosie Jessop is a slight negative on the fav 1.26 for Veiled to place
500 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Alainmaar, 15/8 Capeability, 14/1 Feathered Crown, 16/1 Freda´s Rose, 33/1 Falcon´s Tribute, Obara D´Avril, 50/1 Right You Are, 100/1 Billy Simmonds, Convitezza, Mistic Academy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ALAINMAAR ought to get the better of Capability given the promise of his first run. |
Only 2 under 14/1 and the fav now 2/5 - a maiden race and the hope is the form of the fav on his only run can be replicated 1.07 to place Alainmaar who is the one they have come for at time of writing
540 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Aeroplane, 9/2 Flawed Genius, 11/2 Orpenindeed, 6/1 Gallantry, 8/1 Beauchamp Viceroy, 10/1 Autumn Blades, 16/1 Obe Royal, Statute Book, 20/1 Royal Envoy, 25/1 Sea Land, 33/1 Zennerman, 50/1 Alan Devonshire.
| DIOMED VERDICT: AEROPLANE is different class to these at his best and is fancied to make light of top weight. |
Odds on price gapper in the live betting market . Negatives - odds on shots in handicaps generally are opposable, and Frank on board - will his beret slip over his head while riding, enabling him to magic up a 4th place? 1.23 for Aeroplane to place
810 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Lady Francesca, 5/2 Expressive, 11/2 Cappagh Strand, 10/1 Herecomethegirls, 25/1 Broughtons Point, 100/1 Barathea´s Acclaim, Bonnie Bea, Pinewood Lulu, Spin Sister,
| DIOMED VERDICT: LADY FRANCESCA boasts worthwhile form in much stronger races and merits another chance. |
A lot of top heavy markets today and if getting involved, we really need to be confident about both shorties placing 1.1 and 1.14 the front 2 to place
SHORTLIST
There are a lot of top heavy markets today which I don't like to be honest.Getting involved in perceived 2 horse races means we need to pick the right one to place, and ideally, we would want to see both placing to ensure a return. In my experience though, there's usually a "spoiler"
240 YARMOUTH - only included here because Rigidity is a hard to beat selection -1.18 to place and 2 places so we need to be confident here.
500 PONTEFRACT
Alainmaar is 1/3 in places and 1.1 to place, and may be worth a shot given the confidence in the win market when compared with Capeability. Only 3 under 25/1 and only 4 under 50/1 so probability is this one will place, albeit at a poor price
Ajax v Timosoara - I would only get involved I think with one eye on trading after Ajax ( hopefully) score first
Hertha at home and 1.27 , I am taken by the idea that Ventspils were pummeled by FC Zurich who, although showing up well enough v Real Madrid, were eventually beaten 5-2, but Hertha have lost 4 of 5 games in the Bundesliga
Villareal are 1.22 to beat LEvski Sofia - concern re lack of goals ( but only 2 matches in la Liga thus far)- a strong side should see the result going with the odds
ONE A DAY
OF the above, Alainmaar is the strongest horse to place in my mind, and from a footballing perspective, Ajax appeal having the best momentum of the shorties to tonight with 6 goals at the weekend.
I am not as taken with the Europa league as with the Champions league and for that reason, I will put faith in Alainmaar today albeit at really poor odds again, but the hope is to nail this today and see if we can get better odds with the wealth of opportunities that a weekend can bring in a couple of days time
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