Thursday, 10 September 2009

10/9

Randers and Spain scored 8 between them for an easy multiple one a day at 1.16 . The layer who put up 1.15 got his hand bitten off as this price was too big. The multiple allowed proper stakes as the Randers game itself was illiquid.
Greece scored first which was key for trading out. The 1.43 was there because, as I mentioned, Greece were not reknowned for their scoring ability.
As to the horses, well Knock em dead was unplaced but remember the key is ONE A DAY - as long as the correct decision is made, then we are done for the day.
Federer was imperious at 1.08 for the night owls
150 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lava Lamp, 3/1 Forest Runner, 9/2 Hunting Tartan, 10/1 Yabtree, 16/1 Seaside Sizzler, 20/1 Apache Kid, Wavertree Bounty, 25/1 Goodison Goal, Red Eddie, 100/1 Dauntsey Park, Mr Maximas.

DIOMED VERDICT: LAVA LAMP is easily the pick from those few that have run, with Forest Runner among several interesting newcomers.

Watch out for Seaside sizzler ,now 4/1 and "ALL RED" indicating a potential good run. Lava LAmp is odds on but this is another maiden where a number of runners are debutants - 1.27 to place and 1.78 for Seaside sizzler

200 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Chain Of Events, 100/30 Coordinated Cut, 4/1 Munsarim, 6/1 Muwalla, 8/1 Alfonso The Wise, Quick Reaction, 10/1 Tactician, 20/1 Karamojo Bell, 66/1 Arlequin, Beyond The City.

DIOMED VERDICT: Some promising types in the line-up. Chain Of Events and MUNSARIM could prove the pick.

The Fallon factor? Coordinated cat odds on in another tricky maiden - with his recent hatrick for Cumani can we trust Fallon to be back to his best and expect a place on a fancied horse? 1.24 for Fallon

245 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Five Cents, 9/4 White Devil, 11/2 Fantastic Prince, 6/1 Rawnaq, 10/1 Dinkie Short, 20/1 Sir William Orpen.

DIOMED VERDICT: White Devil will not be easily picked off but FIVE CENTS is likely to have his measure if his debut lesson has been learnt.

Again another maiden and odds on and 2 places 1.28 to place

310 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Taajub, 10/1 Spying, 12/1 Carnaby Street, Lowdown, Take Ten, 14/1 Swilly Ferry, Trailblazing, 16/1 Sunraider, 20/1 Lamh Albasser, Rakaan, 25/1 Di Stefano, Fremont, Lucky General, 33/1 Ghostwing, Sand Skier, William Morgan, 40/1 Perfect Ch´I, Step In Time, 50/1 Eternal Instinct, 66/1 Ingleby Spirit, 100/1 On The Bounty,

DIOMED VERDICT: TAAJUB stands out on form. Carnaby Street may the best each-way alternative.

Huge price gapper here but a 2 year old stakes race and probably only 3 places despite field size ( not a handicap)
Competitive nature shown by 3 of the front 4 having won last time out 1.53 to place - trust in the price gap?

345 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tanoura, 100/30 Shemima, 13/2 Perfect Truth, Sesenta, 8/1 Clowance, 12/1 Cassique Lady, Victoria Montoya, 16/1 The Miniver Rose, 20/1 Princess Taylor, 25/1 Starfala,

DIOMED VERDICT: This may lie between the Aga Khan-owned pair TANOURA and Shemima. Preference is for the younger, more progressive Tanoura.

Oxx/Kinane are back on these shores after exciting on Sea the stars and are on the fav. Reliance on old eyebrows in this class 1 race? 1.26 to place

405 CHESPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bended Knee, 100/30 Casting Couch, 7/2 Izzi Mill, 9/1 Spirit Child, 14/1 Rebel Woman, 18/1 Louise Sauvage, 20/1 Diktat Queen, Jewelled Reef, 25/1 Rumramah, 33/1 Bahamian Mouse, 40/1 Anasy, 50/1 Lady Meg, 66/1 Welsh Passion.

DIOMED VERDICT: BENDED KNEE was just reeled in on her debut and gets the vote ahead of Casting Couch and Izzi Mill.

Only 3 under 14/1 and BEnded Knee, guess what, another maiden with only one run

Yet another maiden odds on here and price gapped (the front 2) in the live market - but 2 places - 1.17 to place

450 DONCASTEr
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Fantasia, 7/2 Shamwari Lodge, 11/2 Royal Confidence, 12/1 Red Dune, 14/1 Please Sing, 16/1 Festoso, Say No Now, 20/1 King´s Starlet, 25/1 Carcinetto, Cilium, 33/1 Iasia, 40/1 Oceana Blue,

DIOMED VERDICT: A race that revolves around FANTASIA, who looks a class above these rivals if in anything like the same form which has seen her placed twice in Group 1s.

As already alluded to, Fallon has been great for Cumani - June 09 last time Fantasia ran and I ask again, can we place our faith in Fallon on price gappers and market leaders? 1.19 to place

455 TIPP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Purple Heart, 3/1 Bygone Age, 4/1 Reggae Rock, 6/1 Icon Dream, 12/1 Granville Bennett, 14/1 Royal And Ancient, 25/1 Saxon Wing, 33/1 Big Bad Billy Bob, Thank Your Stars.

If we follow our rule that Ballydoyle maiden horses improve for the run(s) then Purple heart should at least place 1.22 to place

635 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Battlemaiden, 3/1 If I Were A Boy, 6/1 Desert Poppy, 7/1 Nurture, 10/1 Pont D´Avignon, 16/1 Elsie´s Orphan, Memory And Magic, 20/1 Interlace, May Chorus, 40/1 Akubra, Wannabee,

DIOMED VERDICT: IF I WERE A BOY is worth another chance to build on her debut promise, with Battlemaiden the other leading player on form.

All red and Godolphin but yet another maiden race, typical of today 1.32 to place

655 TIPP
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Natural High, 5/1 Faoileanda, 8/1 Coolcashin, Griddle, 10/1 Lac A Dancer, 14/1 Sabine Wild, Waltz, 25/1 Amazon Queen, Eternal Spirit, Night Spark, Save My Blushes, 33/1 Balance On Time, Lady Danielle, Runaway Paudie, 50/1 Home Secretary, 66/1 Rowan Dancer, Timmelman, 100/1 Jordans Quest,

Weld/Smullen price gapper but another maiden anad this one a debutant 1.23 to place

FOOTBALL
Belarus under 17 1.03 and 1.08 to score over 2.5 goals
German ladie 4/11 v the British lionesses, and they were losing in the first half v Norway so perhaps this is a tradeable game if England score first
TENNIS
1.26 del Potro appeals against Murray's conqueror (but Murray was carrying a shoulder injury)

ONE A DAY/SHORTLIST
450 Doncaster - Fantasia ,if on her game, should place in a race where the market only fancies 3. Faith in Fallon?
455 TIPP - Purple Heart should be another progressive Ballydoyle horse in a maiden

As you can see, we face many 2 year old races today and they are hit or miss - all the fancies could oblige, or they could run green as they are still learning - this makes life difficult. Heavy ground is the concern at Tipperary for the Ballydoyle horse - will he handle the ground as a 2 year old, having run on soft previously
Faith, then in Fallon by default, albeit in a compeitive listed race - just hope the market is right and this involves 3 horses. We have seen previously these fancied horses under par after returning - hopefully this won't happen to Fantasia

ADDENDUM - this is not really an ideal day - there are no bets as strong as Randers/Spain today so if you fancy a day off, then that is a good idea.



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