As to yesterday's selection, well he won, and I doubt you will ever see a 1/3 shot as good as Ivory coast, or indeed a 4/6 shot as good as See the Stars. I was a bit naughty yesterday and backed FAme and Glory to place for silly money#
| Fame And Glory | * | 1.24 | 1,150.00 | Back | 272.01 | |
| Fame And Glory | 1.01 | 1,407.92 | Lay | 05-Sep-09 15:53 | -14.08 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | 272.01 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | -14.08 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 257.93 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.5%: | 11.61 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 246.32 | |||||
yes a 4 figure sum, but very rarely will you get a race profile like yesterday's with such a strong horse at 1.24 to place in a perceived match up with 3 places - a 2nd fav who had won some eye catching group races!!.
Sometimes you just have to take the chance, because in this betting game opportunities that are there at a certain point in time will never be repeated!
Yes it could have all gone wrong but this is one of those chances to really profit.
I had a late night last night watching Dayglow Madonna's Argentina get spanked by Brazil - karma for the Hand of God?
I also followed the John Isner v Andy Roddick match which was enhanced bet heaven as Andy was 2 sets down in a 1st to 3 set match.
I backed Andy at enhanced odds and layed Isner at 1.57 ,and Andy won the next 2 sets! At 1.19 for Mr Roddick I got out AND HE WENT ON TO LOSE THE MATCH
It was a trader's dream really with over £10 million matched on this game alone.
Remember what I said about trading being backing your opinion? Well my opinion was that Andy would at least win the 3rd set ( and this would be reflected in his price shortening as the market anticipated a recovery)
A superb example of enhanced bet and trading last night.
Did you notice the enhanced bet in the Turkey match? 1.15 were available to back at 1.46 after going a goal down, then equalising
Not only this, but an acca came in laying Stockport, backing Spain, Turkey, Croatia (1-0 win wih 10 men-tikes),England, Ivory Coast, Austria, Germany so really a nice boost to my " I need money cos my car clutch needed fixing" account
I have mentioned before about accas in matches which are ,well, mismatches. Sometimes they will come off ( this one paid 3.85 I think)
300 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 William´s Wishes, 5/2 Australia Day, 9/2 Danimix, 5/1 Wor Rom, 12/1 Sagunt, 16/1 Tubby Littlejohns, 25/1 Fred Kennet, 33/1 Watchmaker, 66/1 Art Value, 100/1 Drumacole Artist.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WILLIAM'S WISHES (nap) has bumped into a couple of useful sorts and can make it third time lucky. |
First race of interest and it's 3pm - tells you there are some tough races to wade through today
Australia day the mover into 4/5 in a race where only 2 are under 10/1 1.13 to place
335 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Baddam, 7/1 Will If I Want, 8/1 Ballyvesey, 9/1 Alfa Beat, 10/1 Converti, 12/1 Sweet Seville, 20/1 Global Flyer, Tarabela, 25/1 Poppy Parade, 40/1 Call Me Sam, 50/1 Bespoke Boy, Major Roi, 100/1 Champagne Star, Ray´s Round.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Quirky BADDAM will take the beating provided he's in cooperative mood, with Will If I Want a feasible each-way alternative. |
Not too happy with the description of the horse but that's some price gap and Robert Thornton is the man to have onboard any price gapper 1.14 to place
410 WORCESTER
| DIOMED VERDICT: It can pay to concentrate on the former decent hurdlers Leamington Lad and SEVEN IS MY NUMBER, with the Pipe runner, who goes well fresh, fancied to come out on top on his return after a break. |
A beginner's chase and 7 is my number is the market mover in a race where 5 are under 20/1 1.38 to place
And that's it from my perspective with the horses.
FOOTBALL
| 16:30 | MP vs Kultsu FC | 1/16 |
| 18:00 | Ghana vs Sudan | 1/6 |
TENNIS
Kim Clisjsters is 1.94 against Venus "ooh me fecking knee" Williams and my contention is that Kim's price should fall below 1.94 at some point during the match. I would target 1.79 for a 1.15 equivalent return ( or a bit lower if you green screen)
Andy Murray is 1.15 to win the first set and 1.03 to win the match- so odds must be favouring a good start? This market is highly illiquid though
SHORTLIST
Baddam my first choice I think -having been campaigned at class 1 and class 2 level, now class 4, price gapped and Choc Thornton
Mp are 1.1 on Betfair but there's just no money in the market, but higher than Ladbrokes 1.06
Ghana are 1.17 in a match which is NOT IN RUNNING
ONE A DAY
Just how quirky is this Baddam? Will if I want the only other horse under 10/1.
The real rock solid one today is MP at 1.1 but there's no money available at that price. Ghana too look great at 1.17 and as the biggest priced of the 3, will be my one a day later this evening.
Official one a day that is!! I will look at Australia Day and Baddam personally in the live environment and if the market gets stronger for MP, get involved there. Ghana seems to be the one which is the most reliable versus a quirky horse and a fav in a maiden hurdle
Ghana have a perfect revord in their group. Sudan have lost 2 and drawn 1.Ghana have already beaten Sudan 2-0 at their place
The only reason I will look at the horses is because the Ghana game is NOT in running and if I personally can nab my one a day in the live market then I will (before this game kicks off this evening)
No comments:
Post a Comment