I hope you picked your own yesterday and avoided Seneschal in the seller. If so, then the other shortlisters obliged. A 3 timer for AP McCoy yesterday included High Gales which I saw as his strongest candidate
On to today and I am aware with the weekend coming that there will be some very juicy one a dayers in the international football, so there is no real obligation to nail a one a dayer if it does not appear today as I could double up with all of the great opportunities to come
250 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Shaayeq, 5/2 Indochina, 7/1 Whistle Blower, 8/1 Shabak Hom, 10/1 Gordon Flash, 33/1 Refuse To Tell,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Last month's Lingfield AW debut third SHAAYEQ looks to have been found a good opportunity. |
Waiting until 10 to 3 for the first possible tells you it might be one of those days! And this -a 2 the place maiden with another odds on fav with oly one run against a Mark Johnston juvenile and these cannot be discounted so perhaps not the ideal race profile for place only 1.31 to place relays the task for this fav
350 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Shamandar, 100/30 Conniption, 7/2 Walk On Water, 5/1 She´s A Character, 14/1 Jira, Sweet Sonnet, 20/1 Queen´s Grace, Roodle, Seeking Dubai, 33/1 Kurtanella,
| DIOMED VERDICT: CONNIPTION made a big impression on her debut and may be too good for Shamandar. |
Listed race and only 4 under 20/1 with Conniption the " ALL RED" favourite at a shortening 6/4
Wot no Ryan Moore in this listed race? 1.31 to place
Guess what - more 2 year olds!
400 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 My Kingdom, 5/1 Zowington, 11/2 Filligree, 6/1 Wotashirtfull, 13/2 Rocker, We Have A Dream, 17/2 Gentle Guru, 11/1 Idle Power, 20/1 Musical Script.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Zowington and Filligree are respected but both may be vulnerable to progressive 3yo MY KINGDOM (nap), who won nicely at Brighton last time and could have more to offer again. |
2nd and 3rd favs are non runners -opens things up to My Kingdom? BUT 14/1 outsider tells you this is competitive
1.41 to place
415 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Miss Frangipane, 7/2 Equinine, 5/1 Fatal Attraction, Neva A Mull Moment, 10/1 Diamond Blade, Halcyon Dancer, Kilmun, 20/1 Castlecarra, 25/1 Mayorstone, 33/1 Nino Zachetti, 66/1 Aquapark, Northgate Lodge, Town And Gown, 100/1 Italian Dame.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FATAL ATTRACTION should benefit from the step up to this trip and is taken to beat Miss Frangipane. |
Fatal attraction is out of the picture -does this open this up to the fav to at least place? Progressive sort who has had 3 runs in maiden company 1.34 to place
620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Waveband, 9/2 Annia, 6/1 Fear Nothing, 8/1 Ruthie Babe, 12/1 Listillo, Reallymissgreeley, Rockweiller, 14/1 Caol Ila, 16/1 Kanace, 25/1 Turf Time, 33/1 Night Trade, Rightcar Marian, 100/1 Sixbox.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WAVEBAND has the pace to capitalise on her low draw and can gain a deserved success. |
Consistently placed for Mark Johnston, about time he got a win (and by default a place) in another fecking maiden 1.22 to place
750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Satwa Moon, 3/1 Classically, Luc Jordan, 4/1 Aspro Mavro, 16/1 At Wits End, Choosy Floosy, 33/1 Marina´s Ocean, Susurrayshaan, 66/1 Any Secrets, Avonlini, Cruise Control, Miss Jodarah, Smart Tazz.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CLASSICALLY will find this easier than some of the contests he has tackled and if the gelding operation has had the desired effect, he could prove hard to beat. |
Only 4 under 20/1 here and big mve for Aspro Mavro already (note race time) and all red as I write - 1.35 to place
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Valid Point, 5/1 King´s Icon, 6/1 Strike Force, 8/1 Fantasy Ride, 10/1 View From The Top, 14/1 Desert Hawk, 20/1 Benitez Bond, Kaystar Ridge, Miskin Flyer, Parkview Love, 25/1 Noche De Reyes, 33/1 Bute Street, The Wily Woodcock.
| DIOMED VERDICT: VALID POINT is the one progressive runner in the field and he can complete his hat-trick this time. |
You'll recall I mentioned this one in passing - a 0-60 class 6 handicap price gapper and they run well. On a hatrick this time, so dilemma regarding multiple handicap winners whose sequences will end eventually as the weight takes its toll BUT av is priced to be competitive and, i he loses, will he still place? 1.33
In a poorish day, is there anywhere else that may offer a one a day alternative?
Well nothing today on the footy, but I note Ze Germans ladies are short against the Italian bellas tomorrow Scraping the barrel, Man Utd reserves are playing Wigan reserves
The US Open tennis is the only alternative but always in the back of my mind is backing a shortie and watching them retire with an injury - D'oh!
Dementiava is 1.08 4pm
F Gonzalez is 1.09
Safina 1.09
Tsonga 1.07
Verdasco 1.08
Davydenko 1.07
Again my knowledge of tennis is limited and recent form and head to heads would have to be independently researched before placing a bet
SHORTLIST
350 Salisbury would be my first race of interest with only 4 under 25/1 - the hope is that the race is dominated by these 4 and Coniption and Walk on water would be my 2 shortlisters (the former thanks to the big market move and the latter because of the consistent winning form)
NEGATIVES - listed race and 2 year olds. Listed - all horses have potential otherwise they wouldn't be there -2 year olds - by their very nature still learners
As ever, in a perceived 4 horse race, we want the market to be accurate and the front 3 to all place - if only it were that easy!
400 EPSOM - Can My Kingdom benefit fron the absence of provisional 2nd and 3rd favs?
NEGATIVES - handicap and 14/1 outsider tells us this could be tight
415 REDCAR - despite the field size, there looks to be a lot of dead wood in this maiden. Miss Frangapane can perhaps take advantage and place again at least
620 WOLVES - Waveband should gain compensation?
TENNIS - Safina and Tsonga instinctually for me in the US OPEN or no particular reason
At such short odds, all o the shorties must be considered.
ONE A DAY
A day lacking anything approaching a standout, eye catching nailed on place only bet - you know the sort that anyone glancing through the race cards just picks out naturally.
I will chance time order Coniption today in the hope this is 4 horse race and he can place
ULTRA SAFE one a day ( and after all that's what we're after isn't it?) would be one of the tennis bets. With Coniption the horse is backable at 1.31 and I will place a get out lay bet at 1.15 in the hope that price is hit in running. Even better to back at 2.74 and lay off at 2.54 in the win market for a 1.20 equivalent bet -
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