Running a little late as broadband is v slow ( typical of Ireland) so if the blog ends abruptly you'll know why
Soft ground at Thirsk and Haydock is offputting
140 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 You´ll Be Mine, 4/1 Hedaaya, 5/1 What A Charm, 6/1 Anaverna, 8/1 Green Utopia, Karasiyra, Super Hoofer, 10/1 Alamanda, Awe Inspiring, Plum Sugar, Unity, 12/1 Christmas Light, 16/1 Dance Beat, Mary James, 20/1 Cruzing, Lady L, Yorkshire Pearl, 33/1 Duchess Of Foxland,
The day begins with a Ballydoyle favourite ,now 7/4, and a likely improver for his 2nd run 1.52 to place does not relay maximum faith
230 THIRSk
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Colepeper, 9/2 Happy Dubai, 15/2 Antarctic Desert, True Loves Kiss, 9/1 Cracking Lass, 11/1 Quite Sparky, 12/1 Mr Mohican, 16/1 Bollin Andrew, 20/1 Dubara Reef, North Shadow, 25/1 Mr Prize Fighter, 40/1 Irish Eyes, Lost In The Forest.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Though COLEPEPER's debut form at Hamilton last month is unexceptionalit still makes him a leading player in this, with the likelihood of more to come today. |
Price gapper here but our old friend, the one time out maiden favourite and in soft ground 1.19 to place - expected to handle the ground?
240 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 All The Aces, 11/4 Kirklees, 3/1 Curtain Call, 8/1 King Of Rome, 12/1 Kandidate, Muhannak, 25/1 Indian Days, 33/1 Heliodor, Inventor, Sky Crusader.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CURTAIN CALL has no question mark about him at the trip, unlike Kirklees, and a reproduction of his Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud fourth should be good enough. |
Kirklees the fancy here in a race where 5 dominate the betting, Muhannak the market mover 1.34 to place
240 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Rainbow View, 5/2 Again, 9/2 Heaven Sent, 13/2 Mad About You, 10/1 Heart Shaped, 20/1 San Sicharia, 33/1 Totally Devoted, 50/1 Monivea.
Mad about you out, only 3 under 20/1 and hopefully still 3 places make this a shortlist candidate 1.15 to place
310 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Musleh, 9/2 Set The Trend, 6/1 Fancy Footsteps, Multakka, 14/1 Sequillo, Vainglory, 16/1 Assail, Highly Regal, Tartan Gigha, Tourist, 20/1 Apex, 25/1 Green Agenda, The Snatcher, 33/1 Prince Of Thebes, The Happy Hammer, Trafalgar Square.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SET THE TREND has left the impression all season there is a decent handicap in him and can take advantage of a good draw, not least relative to his main rivals. |
16 runners make this interesting as 4 places on Betfair, and a price gapper in ride on Musleh but his winning sequence will end sometime - but will he place? 1.5 to place - today the day the winning sequence ends ? BUT will he still place?
350 LEOP
It was fascinating seeing Ballydoyle try a sandwich in order to get Sea the stars beaten last time and with another 4 horses I suspect the outsiders will make the running and form a wall meaning Sea the stars will take up ground getting past the wall, allowing Fame and Glory to stride on in front
That's what I reckon will happen as nearly did last time A 4 horse race all told. Rockhampton and Set sail should trade lower in running as they are pacemakers and should last for a long while in front.
Assuming some "extravagant" Ballydoyle tactics, maybe FAme and Glory is the one to benefit at a bigger price for the place 1.12 and 1.14 the front 2 to place - amazing the similarity in prices - I thought Fame and Glory would be much bigger
435 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Emerald Commander, 4/1 Syrian, 6/1 Nideeb, 13/2 Black Snowflake, 10/1 Timely Jazz, 16/1 Universal Circus, 20/1 Toga Tiger, 33/1 Take It To The Max.
| DIOMED VERDICT: EMERALD COMMANDER sets a clear standard on his latest good second in a York Group 3 and looks the one to be on. |
Emerald Tiger has won on soft ground which is a plus - 7 runners -still 3 places? 1.16 to place and 3 places still
530 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 The Jigsaw Man, 11/2 Benbens, 9/1 Janie´s Encore, 10/1 Magistrate, 14/1 Lucas Eile, 16/1 Aspatria, Heathyards Beat, 33/1 Karoshdee, 40/1 Wild Blackthorn, 50/1 Wirefox, 100/1 Chateau Blanc.
| DIOMED VERDICT: THE JIGSAW MAN sets a very useful standard and should be extremely hard to beat, though the odds are likely to be skinny. Magistrate is tentatively preferred for those seeking forecast options. |
"extremely hard to beat" - words I like to see 1.13 to place
FOOTBALL
| 15:00 | Leeds vs Stockport | 1/3 |
| 15:00 | Ukraine vs Andorra | 1/100 |
| 16:00 | Russia vs Liechtenstein | 1/100 |
| 17:30 | England vs Slovenia | 1/6 - |
| 18:00 | Ivory Coast vs Burkina Faso | 1/3 |
| 19:00 | Turkey vs Estonia | 1/6 |
| 19:30 | Austria vs Faroe Islands | 1/7 |
SHORTLIST
240 LEOPARDSTOWN first race of interest given soft ground elsewhere ( but it is yielding at Leopardstown)
Only 3 under 20/1 and Rainbow vie at 1.15 is the fav - surely he can place?
350 LEOPARDSTOWN - 1.12 to place suggests the ground is favourable for Sea the Stars in his fight with not just Fame and Glory, but the tactics of the 4 horse Ballydoyle team. Fame and Glory at 1.14 perhaps the safer place option with his mates ganging up on Sea the stars?
435 HAYDOCK - Emerald Commander won on soft, is odds on, 2 opponents are 50/1 or bigger and it's 7 runners and 3 places ( will 3 of the 7 beat this one ,bearing in mind 2 are 50/1 or bigger?) A compelling case here I think(?)
530 Stratford - The Jigsaw Man must be included as a HTB selection (extremely hard to beat - exudes confidence here)
Ukraine - we are betting ,at 1.18 ht/ft that they make at least one breakthrough to no reply in the first 45 minutes - for a side at 1/100 this SHOULD be a given shouldn't it? They're at home as well. Might be worth a bet
Eng-er-land are 1/6 but this is a friendly so caution advised as there may be wholesale changes. Still should make a breaktrough first and allow a tradeable option, but personal preference would be for games with meaning
Austria are no world beaters and Faroe are tough nuts to crack at home, but away from home, we should return to the old Faroe ass whoppings as our American cousins would say?
ONE A DAY
Time order today - Rainbow View in a 7 horse race, 3 under 20/1 to place looks great, as does Again who is a course and distance winner, and a winner of group 1's in heavy and soft ground Rainbow is 1.15 and Again is 1.37 to place. For safety sake, I suppose, go with the shortest priced to place, bt if you fancy speculating on Again, well he has Murtagh on board, and will like the ground, but it'll be RAINBOW VIEW for me.
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