22/9 UPDATE

Good to see the horses winning. No problems with either selection yesterday.
Enhanced bets ahoy! Galatasary (1.25) go a goal down and are backable at evens and win 3-1
Sporting lisbon ( 1.3) go 2-0 down in 2 minutes and are backable at 5.1. They win 3-2
I traded out of both of these games after one goal so missed out on a near £600 payout instead of £150 (and the return o my stakes)
Just goes to show that this enhanced bets philosophy is working continuously.

Football to start with
AZ Alkmaar v Jong Ajax - 1.15 - I suspect this is a dutch cup game and this is not THE Ajax

18:00

Bayern Munich vs Oberhausen

1/12

Huge gulf in class in this Cup game - question is - what kind of a team are Bayern going to put out?
Fits into the category of bet where it would be a shock if Bayern lost or drew 1.1 to win , 1.37 to win half time.

19:00

Sevilla vs Mallorca

4/9

Usually score bucketloads at home -Bundesliga match not a cup game

19:45

Arsenal vs West Brom

4/9

Carling Cup- the Arsenal under 12's v West Brom. Both sides ,I suspec, have bigger things on their minds, but both can score goals and that could be a good neutral bet

21:00

Santander vs Barcelona

9/1

4/1

2/7s

Imperious at the weekend, Barcelona and Ibra have clicked into gear and this should ensure Barca score first for a trade 10 goals in 3 matches and one away 2-0 win
Form lines - Santander beaten by Getafe 4-1 ( Barca beat Getafe away 2-0)
Santander drew 1-1 with Athletico ( Barca beat Athletico 5-2)
This strengthens the 1.33 for Barca tonight

220 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ruthie Babe, 4/1 Pherousa, 9/2 Dusty Spirit, 5/1 Freeforaday, 11/2 Devassa, 10/1 Azif, 16/1 Diamond Affair, 20/1 Grace Jicaro.

DIOMED VERDICT: FREEFORADAY is interestingly handicapped on his second run and can upset Ruthie Babe.

All red but this is a nursery 1.32 to place but this is effectively a 2 year old handicap and over 5 furlongs

Lots of top heavy markets today which I will ignore, because 2 are over the jumps and one is a 5 furlong 2 places race.

330 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Captain Dunne, 11/4 Ishetoo, 6/1 Buachaill Dona, Percolator, 8/1 Matsunosuke, Tabaret, 25/1 Pawan, 66/1 Guertino,

DIOMED VERDICT: These races are seldom contests for the slide rule and ISHETOO may be able to reverse Portland form with Captain Dunne.

7 runners and 3 places ( need to check) - 2 clear outsiders -could wangle a probability bet here - 1.17 to place and 3 places
Another 5 furlong race will be over in a flash. 2 clear outsiders should ensure 5 horses in contention for the 3 places.
Concern is the sprint distance which does not allow for any tardiness and there are some high quality jockeys on the opponents.


400 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Namecheck, 11/4 Ostentation, 5/1 Amtaar, 7/1 Princess Emma, 33/1 Battle Study, 50/1 Henry Havelock, 66/1 Ilkley, Miss Isle Control.

DIOMED VERDICT: The step up in trip can help promising Newcastle third NAMECHECK get off the mark.

Not another 2 year old maiden! Godolphin fav has only the one run ( familiar!) but again we could look at the probability of placing angle here.
Only 3 horses under 10/1
Only 4 horses under 20/1
Only 5 horses under 50/1
So, assuming a lot, should this race revolve around the 5 under 50/1, then the fav has 2 to beat to place 1.11 to place puts a lot of faith in a 2 year old reproducing sole run.

410 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Tafaool, 7/2 Game Stalker, 13/2 Silk And Satin, 14/1 Lilly Royal, Naheell, 16/1 Bengers Lass, 25/1 Dovedon Earl, 66/1 Free Falling, Reel Hope, 100/1 Legend Of Greece.

DIOMED VERDICT: TAFAOOL, who is from an excellent Shadwell Estate family, commands plenty of respect on her Newmarket form even before factoring in likely further improvement. Price gapper fav a non runner promotes Godolphin's game stalker to fav, and strong at 2/5 3 places still? 6 runners means a 50/50 race. Will a Godolphin favourite get beaten by 3 other horses in a 6 runner race wherre 2 are 33/1 or bigger 1.48 to win and 1.07 to place - reasonable enough I suppose given the profile of the race and the 3 places. Potential bet along with Bayern Munich to bump up to 1.17 total ( but then this is not strictly one a day!) 510 STRATFORD BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 King Of The Night, 5/1 One Cool Tornado, 7/1 Iron Steve, 10/1 Gentle Jim, Naughty Naughty, Secure My Position, 14/1 Jo Joe´s Lot, Maelstrom Sea, Rhythm Seeker, 20/1 The Wee Midget, Traditional Bells, 33/1 Kemsley Lass, Late For Class, Tremonnow Tern, 66/1 Best Memory, 100/1 Cirrus Coin. DIOMED VERDICT: KING OF THE NIGHT shaped well in a race that threw up winners on his debut and is fancied to go close on this first run for his top yard. You can tell the jumps are upon us , as Paul Nicholls has a short priced price gapper in a bumper ( has this ever happened before?) Not run since June, but maximum respect for the all conquering Nicholls yard. A race to look at nearer the race time as it is a bumper, and bumpers rely on market moves as there are a lot of newcomers 1.28 to place 525 FAIRYHOUSE BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Adjaliya, 7/1 Cluain Alainn, 8/1 Daasij, Fingal Rock, 10/1 Abroad, Definate Spectacle, End Of The Affair, Greannmhar, 12/1 Bashkirov, Mid Mon Lady, Shalambar, 14/1 Dolphin Bay, 20/1 Define. Evergreen Mick Kinane on a short priced fav must be considered He still oozes class 1.66 to place SHORTLIST I am taken by the form lines mentioned above for Barca and Racing Santander. Team news (strong side)for Barca will strengthen the case but 1.33 ,in current form, looks a gift for a team who were simply superb against Athletico Madrid who are no mugs Option to trade here after Barca hopefully make the breakthrough Bayern Munich's mentality towards cup games will be born outwith team selection this evening Bundesliga 2 side Oberhausen suffered a 4-0 defeat in their last away game, and 2 big defeats sandwiched between 3 wins, but of course they will not have met a team of the calibre of Bayern Team news ultra important here for final decision making. Oh How I'd love to see Robben and Ribery both start! ( coincidence that when Ribery was brought on at the weekend, Bayern suddenly clicked?) 330 BEVERLEY - Captain Dunne is interesting because this is a potential probability race -if the 2 outsiders can be discounted - 1.17 to place very reasonable 410 Folkstone - Game stalker at 1.07 is correctly priced to beat 3 of 6 runners ( 2 are 33/1 or bigger)- looks the best probability race ( see Circumvent yesterday) ONE A DAY If we're looking or nailed on, then Game stalker appears in a probability race but is priced according to the probability that this Godolphin mount won't be beaten by 3 others in a 6 horse race Bayern Munich fills the criteria of it being a big surprise if they were not to win this match this evening ( team news, I would say is important - see Bayern website or Betfair football forum) - 6pm start allows plenty opportunity to see if they take a dismissive attitude to this game. Home advantage is good too Barcelona, I feel, can be backed at heavy odds on as they definitely deserve the price and play to the prices. 1.33 is enticing this evening and could be worth a gamble So, if we are looking at the nailed on-shock-if-they-lose bets, then Game stalker is the one, and we take our medicine at 1.07 and move on. Team news is the key in the Bayern match - if you see a strong Bayern team ,then the 1.1 is worthy of interest ( will they score in the 1st half? if so 1.37) I would personally consider doubling up with Game stalker to produce a 1.17 ish bet Want to keep faith in a reproduction of the superb football at the weekend, then Barca at 1.33 look solid ( and tradeable)