In retrospect a huge price relative to what I'm used to from the horses.Both shortlisters placed with Frank again managing a 3rd place ( but I suppose he placed and that's the main thing - you see the difference when he changes tactics (Buddhist monk wins) to when he insists on his one dimensional holding them up for a late run.
140 YARMOUTH
| DIOMED VERDICT: CAPTAIN FLASHEART is ahead of the handicapper and can follow up his Kempton success. |
Class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper begins the day and we have the advantage of 4 places too. Price gap accentuated in the live betting market 1.26 to place and these price gappers in these low grade affairs have a tendency to place
225 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Andantino, 5/2 Sajja, 100/30 Fancy Footwork, 10/1 Super Sonic Boom, 12/1 Shanid Boy, 16/1 One Grand One, 20/1 Celtic Brave, Footprint, Silent Dancer.
Only 4 under 25/1 in the betting . Soft ground at Listowel (which is up the road) but it has been glorious weather this past week with NO rain at all - illiquid betting market
235 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Elusive Trader, 5/1 Mercers Row, 13/2 Final Ovation, Layla´s Lexi, 8/1 Taborcillo, 12/1 Media Jury, 14/1 Besty, Kalahari Desert, 16/1 Ravenfield, 20/1 Woldgate, 33/1 Hail Bold Chief, 66/1 Redoubtable Grace, Thinking, 100/1 Remember Dougie.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ELUSIVE TRADER sets the standard on the form he's shown in two starts on Polytrack and, assuming he'll be as effective on turf, can make the most of a good draw. |
Price gapper in this big field maiden BUT 5 furlongs, has only had 2 runs, and the draw can have an effect at Beverley 1.25 to place for this turf debutant
345 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Point Of Light, 4/1 Rosewin, 5/1 Battle Planner, Upton Seas, 10/1 Maybeme.
| DIOMED VERDICT: POINT OF LIGHT is unbeaten in handicaps this year and should be able to defy an 8lb rise after a short absence. |
Won all his races this year - multiple handicap winner up 8lbs - winning run will end soon as weight anchors him, but today? If you think today, then he's layable at odds on 1.26 to place and currently odds on in the win market
405 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bankable, 7/4 Laa Rayb, 8/1 Zulu Chief, 10/1 Ada River, 25/1 Cadre,
| DIOMED VERDICT: This will be tactical but yesterday's rain tilts things in favour of BANKABLE. |
I like Ryan Moore on an odds on shot, but 2 places only means NO margin for error 1.22 to place
520 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zaplamation, 5/1 Danish Art, 7/1 Rascal In The Mix, 10/1 I See Nice Sea, Mojeerr, Well Of Echoes, 14/1 Carpe Diem, Tumbleweed Di, Why Nee Amy, 16/1 Western Art, 20/1 Boss Hog, 33/1 Riverside, 66/1 Govenor Eliott, Mangano.
| DIOMED VERDICT: DANISH ART shaped more encouragingly at Wolverhampton last week and is taken to defy an ordinary draw. |
Price gapper in a classified stakes race-has the draw and the jockey who is 1-2-2 on him, but a big field 1.19 to place
FOOTBALL
I love early round Champions league matches as some games ,like yesterday, stand out like a sore thumb. More of the same today please! Again, if there is a standout, then we will get a better price than the place only market, (with only one rival!!)
4pm FC Mitjelland are 1/8 ( 1.23) to win away from home in the Danish Cup - now I know nothing about team news, so would be betting effectively blind and only relying on he odds as my guide - not much money ( or interest from Betfairians) in this match. Danish Cup matches have tended to go as the odds suggest-pity about the illiquid market
Liverpool are 1.12 at Anfield to beat Debrecen. Now they were 1.18 to beat Burnley and made no mistake - are we looking at a similar emphatic performance here? Betfair's rose tinted spectacles market makers expect goals with an over /under 6.5 goal market and correct score 2 market - this is always a good sign. Would be nice to see Benayoun playing tonight as he will have the momentum from his weekend hatrick.
Do take note of the 1-0 margins of victory for English sides yesterday though
Sevilla are 1.25 v Unirea Uciceni ( is this the game we are looking at?) - generally solid goal scorers at home. Do check for any absences ( eg Athletico Madrid's 0-0 yesterday could be attributed to poor form and the absence of key personnel) -Romanian opponents tonight and their first foray into the Champions league against a side scoring 4 at home at the weekend.
Arsenal are 1.67 at Standard Liege - not the Belgian league is NOT the Premiership by any stretch, BUT this is the Arse away in Europe remember!! Standard would seem layable at 6.8 here in the hope Arsenal nick a goal .
Stuttgart are one of the bundesliga powerhouses and are odds on to beat Rangers at home. Perhaps we will see how weak the SPL is in comparison to European counterparts. Unspectacular form from Stuttgart so far, 2 losses, 2 draws and one win and Rangers exceedingly poor at 0-0 away at the weekend. A game to avoid for me, although Bundesliga is the stronger league by some distance.
SHORTLIST
140 YARMOUTH - I have been well served by price gappers in 0-6 handicaps in the past and Captain Flasheart is 1.26 to continue to good placed form in these race types for price gappers
FC Mitjelland at 1.23 (illiquid market) can hopefully keep the good record for heavy odds on shots when it comes to the Danish Cup. 1/8 away from home and 14/1 the home side tells you everything
Liverpool have the goals in them and have dispatched of teams when priced higher than 1.12 with ease. Expect more of the same tonight at Anfield
Sevilla at 1.25 bump the odds up a tad, and the Romanians should be outclassed this evening with Sevilla having home advantage and the scoring boots fully functioning
Inter v Barca is so enticing. We normally expect goals when Barca play, but remember Inter and Mourinho's not-lost-at-home-in-the -league record.
Eto'o faces his old club this evening and will want to show them but I cannot get a betting angle in
ONE A DAY
I am very tempted by Captain Flasheart in the first race as he looks worth the price gap and the 4 places, but if we're looking at shock-if-it-loses bets, then Liverpool at 1.12 offer unappetising odds but have the look of rock solid banker material about them ( cue 0-0 90 minutes and late goal off the arse of Debrecen defender for lucky 1-0)
No scope to trade here alas with such a short price.I envision goals perhaps and here is where you can enhance the odds.When similarly priced against ,say, Burnley and Stoke, Liverpool have won the first half and are 1.39 to do so here tonight at SHORTER odds than they were against Burnley and Stoke.
1.12 is the safe call to hopefully bag the odds and move on to tomorrow
I think all of the shortlisters are solid today, including the Danish Cup side
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