210 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ghost Dancer, 11/2 Equipe De Nuit, 7/1 Abhainn, Green Velvet, 8/1 Namu, 10/1 Bold Ring, Chasca, 12/1 Golden Dixie, Nativity, 20/1 Royal Manor, 25/1 Blushing Maid, 33/1 Bahamian Ceilidh.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The in-form GHOST DANCER has solid credentials for a race like this. |
Price gapper and shorter in the live betting market - 6/5 to evens - 1.26 to place
250 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Horseradish, 9/2 True To Form, 6/1 Hambleton, Hounds Ditch, 9/1 House Of Rules, 16/1 Cookie Galore, Marjolly, Phoenix Rose, 20/1 Usquaebach, 28/1 Atherton, Goodison Goal, 40/1 Amenable, 66/1 Bombay Mist,
| DIOMED VERDICT: HORSERADISH, whose yard is 2-4 with juveniles here in recent seasons, showed more than enough at Ayr to suggest he can win a race of this nature, assuming he will take to Fibresand. |
Price gapper now odds on but another one time out maiden fav, but we can't ignore the market confidence 1.13 to place - as hinted at the horse is all weather debutant
300 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Overrule, 7/2 Stagecoach Pearl, 9/2 Dr Kildare, 10/1 Skylancer, 20/1 Anay Car, 25/1 Andorn, Pistol Hill, 66/1 Fell Pack, Flashy Max, 100/1 Piccolo Pride, Tank Commander, 250/1 Maynooth Prince.
| DIOMED VERDICT: OVERRULE was impressive last time and can win again. |
Only 3 under 12/1 and possibly Andorn is a market mover - hint of 16/1 and 14/1 there 1.18 to place
305 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Whispering Wind, 9/2 Island Lass, 7/1 Nicomedia, 8/1 Diamond Key, Equation, 10/1 Lip Gloss, 12/1 Sheupshedownshe, 14/1 Beech View, 16/1 Molly Maher, 20/1 Ihavenoidea, Miramalfi, Parquetry, 25/1 Idle Words, Sunset Susie, 33/1 Princess Misty, 50/1 Castletara Edleen, Rowan Dancer.
Seems to be a lot of potentials today - Whispering wind is odds on and has Barry Geraghty on board -this is 2 miles so, for jumps, will be over quickly enough - the key is to keep the horse out of trouble and faith in Mr Geraghty 1.19 to place
310 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Viking Dancer, 5/2 Music Maestro, 4/1 Sternlight, 9/2 Landowner, 7/1 Tislaam, 50/1 Kilmanseck, 66/1 Drubinca, 100/1 Avon Grounds, 200/1 Little Buddy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: VIKING DANCER has been going forward from race to race and looks the one to beat. |
With Music Maestro an important non runner, this should open things up to Viking dancer in what looks, so far, to be the best probability race of the day - 6 run and 3 places make this a good race to focus on - but Viking dancer is 1.08 which is inevitable really
Look at the betting forecast originally - 5 horses under 50/1 - Tislaam and Musical maestro are 2 of those 5 who don't run now. Can we enhance the odds with a place back of Sternlight at 1.25?
405 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Charminamix, 6/1 Adare Manor, 8/1 Piper´s Knowe, 9/1 Charming Hymn, 10/1 French Riviera, Slieve Rocket, Takestan, 14/1 Altnadua, Go Dana Le Pras, Quai Du Roi, 16/1 Arviz, Deputy Consort, Lightening Sky, Old Shyan, Ridge Boy, Ringned, 25/1 A New Rising, Smooth Notion,
Ruby Walsh for Tony Martin cannot be ignored especially on a price gapper, but a 17 runner field may cause traffic problems - that said Ruby, like Barry Geraghty, can be trusted - 1.4 to place
450 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Valid Point, 9/2 Monetary Fund, 7/1 Lucky Punt, 10/1 Brilliana, Interdiamonds, 14/1 Royal Trooper.
| DIOMED VERDICT: VALID POINT (nap) can race off the same mark as when completing a five-timer at Pontefract last week so is likely to be tough to beat as long as he handles the surface. |
I was surprised that Valid point completed the 5 timer, and we are looking for clues that this winning run will end, as inevitably it will some time.
BUT he is still odds on, and the weight rise we would want to see has not materialised.1.26 to place - 5 runners and 2 places
FOOTBALL
Arsenal v Olympiakos - 1.27 to win - Arsenal have been good and reliable at home in Champions league. Olympiakos are typical Greek - low scoring generally
Barcelona v Dinamo Kiev - 1.12 to win - ultra reliable this season and a must-include until tthey don't win
South Korea under 20 v Germany under 20 - 1.37 for the Germans - will they show the efficiency of their senior counterparts? If so, then this is a nice price. The under 20's pricings have generally been accurate ( bar Venezuela v Nigeria when Nigeria were reduced to 1 men)
SHORTLIST
310 WARWICK stands out as a 50/50 race - 6 runners and 3 places - Viking dancer at 1.08 is obvious and a risk could be taken on Sternlight at 1.26 to place given there are still 3 outsiders (whose prices in the live market have obviously shortened given the short priced non runners, but I don't equate this with any market moves or market confidence)
Barcelona at 1.12 are ultra reliable this season and Ibra is scoring , and scoring regularly. Messi is still a maestro and Eto'o is long forgotten. This Barca side this season are backable at short prices until they lose/draw (but the fact they score so regularly means they are great trading prospects)
ONE A DAY
Now ,for me, I can go 3 ways here
1) place back Viking dancer at 1.08 to place - will he get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race?
2) place back Viking dancer and back Barcelona ( and trade out if, as expected, Barca score first) -this will enhance the 1.08 on Viking ( we are assuming he places of course!!) - the key here is to trade the football rather than leave it
3) place back Sternlight at 1.24 (market slightly illiquid and price could increase) - the idea here is that the betting forecast had 5 horses under 50/1 - now 3 remain and the assumption is the outsiders are still outsiders. Again, will Sternlight get beaten by 3 other horses in a 6 horse race?
YOU DECIDE!
THere are many good opportunities today and the 310, for me, represents the best probability chance. IF we are strict, then Viking dancer to place would fit into the category of a shock if he doesn't place one a day bet
Me? I will be going for option 2 myself today to help bump up the 1.08. My aith in Barca remains.
I would not put anyone off Sternlight placing at better odds either ,so if you fancy a probability gamble, this one offers the bestodds
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