Tuesday, 16 June 2009

16/6


Thou shalt trade when thou seeist a green screen! Who on earth envisioned a 3-3 draw up until the 90th minute. If you didn't trade at 3-1 Brazil and Kaka missed the penalty, then shame on you!
Again as you can see on the screen an opportunity for an enhanced bet (went as high as 4.7 at one stage) but I left it alone.
England under 21's 1-1 with 10 men - again a chance of an enhanced bet as they prevailed 2-1 as their initial 1/3 odds suggested

215 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Saxby, 7/1 Cassidy K, 15/2 Craicattack, 8/1 Bothwell Castle, 12/1 Dispol Kabira, Lord Raglan, 16/1 Fond, Joel The Mole, 20/1 Steeley Flyer, Zaskia, 25/1 Another Grand, 33/1 Whistling Wind, 40/1 Brave Ambition, 50/1 Mostofitleft.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dropped in class and well drawn, SAXBY is likely to prove hard to beat. Fellow southern raider Craicattack may give him most to do.[Frank Carter]

Potential hard to beat selection were it not for the fact this is a seller. BIG price gap but Cassidy K is now 3/1 reducing it considerably. 1.32 to place

230 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Gladiatorus, 3/1 Paco Boy, 4/1 Main Aim, 8/1 Alexandros, 9/1 Cesare, 10/1 Aqlaam, 25/1 Arabian Gleam, 33/1 Dream Eater, 50/1 Mac Love.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves round whether GLADIATORUS is as good as his Group 1 Dubai win in March implies and whether he can reproduce the form over this straight mile. That performance is backed up by a good Topspeed figure and it would be a fitting reward for connections' loyalty to Ahmed Ajtebi if he does the business to give Godolphin their eighth winner in this contest. Paco Boy is officially pick of the rest, while there's no telling how far Main Aim can go but the most interesting rival could yet be Aqlaam, who is working far better now than at the time of his Lockinge defeat and has always been held in high regard.[Paul Johnson]

First race of an excellent card and all eyes on Gladiatorus
" must take the beating if he's as good as that form suggests" states Spotlight regarding his recent run.
Frankie is on Alexandros and he is Godolphin number 1 so why not the "sure thing"?
As ever these classes of race are very competitive. The head of the market is tight too and Gladiatorus will have to fight here for victory. 1.57 to place

305 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Scenic Blast, 7/2 Amour Propre, 9/2 Fleeting Spirit, 9/1 Borderlescott, 10/1 Tax Free, 20/1 Equiano, Mythical Flight, 25/1 Hoh Hoh Hoh, Spin Cycle, 33/1 Anglezarke, Cannonball, Dandy Man, 66/1 Captain Gerrard, Rievaulx World, Wi Dud.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Australian sprinters have won three of the last six editions of this race and that fine record can be enhanced by SCENIC BLAST who completed the Lightning Stakes/Newmarket Handicap double also achieved by the 2006 and 2007 King's Stand winners Takeover Target and Miss Andretti. Pick of the home defence looks to be Amour Propre, who has been going from strength to strength and was a decisive winner of the Palace House on his return last month. A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since Fleeting Spirit was so impressive on last season's return but if she can return to that level of form she too would be a major threat in a race that does not have great strength in depth.[Adrian Cook]

Desspite the field size there are 5 horses only under 16/1 - should these be the ones to concentrate on? Another group 1 means it's not as simple as all that! 1.9 and 1.98 the front 2 to place

345 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mastercraftsman, 4/1 Delegator, 5/1 Evasive, 10/1 Intense Focus, 20/1 Soul City, 25/1 Lord Shanakill, Orizaba, 50/1 Pure Poetry, 66/1 Set Sail, 150/1 Born To Be King.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Delegator clearly didn't give his running on desperate going in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and the score between him and MASTERCRAFTSMAN this season is now 1-1 but the O'Brien runner looked a bit special in that runaway triumph at the Curragh and is taken to confirm that recent superiority to give his stable its sixth success in this race in the last ten years.[Paul Johnson]

Delegator v MAstercraftsman part 3. Only 4 horses under 20/1 tell us the market leaders should be some way ahead of the field here.
4 top class jockeys on the top 4, and no Spencer on Delegator which should give confidence to that one's backers. 1.2 to place Mastercraftsman

420 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Canford Cliffs, 5/1 No Hubris, 8/1 Air Chief Marshal, Red Jazz, 14/1 Alrasm, 16/1 Moran Gra, 20/1 Fremont, Marsh Warbler, Raine´s Cross, Xtension, 25/1 Flying Statesman, Treadwell, Walkingonthemoon, 33/1 Rakaan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Richard Hannon has another powerful team of 2yos and there is no doubt that CANFORD CLIFFS is very high in the pecking order, if not at the top. He looked very much the part of a Royal Ascot juvenile on his debut and, with the form working out well, he is taken to remain unbeaten, possibly at the main expense of No Hubris.[Frank Carter]

All horses in this race have either won or come 2nd in their last 2 outings. Hint of a price gapper in Canford Cliffs, but a 6 furlong 14 runner group 2 2 year old sprint is not an easy race to win. 1.55 to place

715 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Galilean, Kaladan, Qanta De Thaix, 8/1 Civil Servant, 9/1 Humbel Ben, 16/1 Psychological, 20/1 Mr Redwood, 25/1 Isitanywonder, Wadham Hill, 33/1 Calusa Lily, Miss Razzmatazz, Secret Dancer, 50/1 Cinnamon Hill, Kaftan Lad, 66/1 New Minerton, 100/1 Super Al.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QANTA DE THAIX has proved a disappointment over hurdles but might be worth another chance, in the hope that whatever ailed him when last seen has been sorted out. Stable companion Galilean boasts the best hurdling form but also has to shrug off the cloud hanging over him so Kaladan may prove a bigger threat.[Jonathan Neesom]

Only 6 horses under 20/1 but a maiden hurdle and Kaladan is the one who's come in for support . 121 in his bumpers but no runs over obstacles. 1.4 to place

800 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tilos Gem, 5/1 Marajaa, 6/1 Magnitude, 7/1 Kinsya, La Coveta, 8/1 Dear Maurice, 9/1 Saltagioo, 11/1 Spring Goddess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TILOS GEM (nap) looks on a fair mark even as his form stands but there must be a real chance that he will prove capable of better again. The pick of his rivals may be Kinsya. [Mel Cullinan]

At first glance this is a price gapper, but the outsider is only 11/1 which indicates this is a very competitive little race and perhaps Tilos Gem is not as standout as he first appears. 1.61 to place

915 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Valbuena, 4/1 How´s My Friend, 9/2 Tollishill, 13/2 Iron Steve, 10/1 Miss Molly Moses, 12/1 Powerfullbeat, 14/1 Qaraarat, 16/1 Saddlewood, 33/1 Miss Totnes, William Weazle, 50/1 Joesgoldenscrumpy, Vixen Run.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Valbuena clearly deserves another chance after her recent mishap at Worcester, but it will be fascinating to see what the market says about HOW'S MY FRIEND, whose half-brother went off at 10-1 before making a winning debut for the yard here two years ago. Tollishill is another who is worth another chance.[

To unseat your rider in a flat race takes some doing! 11/10 now and 7/1 the next horse, the trainer reputation preceeds this one. As ever with bumpers, especially with some 9+ hours til race start, the live market should really be consulted. 1.22 to place

SHORTLIST
345 ASCOT - Surely MAstercraftsman can place at 1.20 in this race where only 4 horses are under 20/1.
A 1.10 equivalent bet could be created by backing those 4 horses that are under 20/1 .
I am just trying to find a reason to oppose Mastercraftsman and find any reason why he should get beaten by 3 other horses in this race, and that answer is - injury? Murtagh seems to be riding. His ban must start later in the week.

Last ran 23rd of May so has had plenty of time to relax and recuperate. Different ground from that tackled in last win at the Curragh.

I can't find any real weaknesses with Mastercraftsman.

There are no other horses I would put up as a shortlister today. The races are either highly competitive or there's ifs and buts about short priced favs based really on their connections' reputations.

ONE A DAY
Simple case of MAstercraftsman here for me at 1.2 to place. I will decide on the dutch or straight place back nearer the off.
Bit wary that this is a bit too "obvious" and easy a selection, but faith I suppose in Aiden O'Brien and Johnny Murtagh
No confederations cup today, but, already, Spain v Iraq tomorrow has the £ signs ching-ching-chinging infront of me
already