3 JUNE UPDATE

220 AYR - Flying statesman now 1/2 and well backed

-if you click on the screenshot you will see one clear outsider at 50/1 and a 20/1 horse who hopefully will play no part. If these assumptions are true, then this is a 3 horse race with 2 places and a very well backed favourite

NEGATIVES 10/1 on first run so was the good run above expectations?

POSITIVES - beat a Ballydoyle horse Beethoven which is decent enough form if we assume Beethoven is the usual good Ballydoyle horse1.13 to place

240 NOTTINGHAM - must be a 3 horse race surely?4th horse is 20/1 7/4 ,7/4 , 5/2 the front 3 cannot be split. Dutching the front 3 brings a 1.06 return which is a tad short. Which horse to chose? In maidens I normally go with the horse with most experience and that's Musical Bridge but Frank (NO not housewives' favourite Frankie BUT the other Frank!) is onboard .he did ride the horse 2nd last time which is encouraging I suppose

300 FONTWELL - Black Jacari is now 7/4 and 1.38 to place but a ? remains over the horse's consistency

310 NOTT - dismissed as fav has only had one run and is odds on in a maiden where 4 horses are newcomers

320 AYR - Salerosa well backed into 7/4 favorite in this handicap 1.37 to placae

410 NOTT - a 6 horse race and 2 clear market leaders in Emrooz and khateeb with Dubai Touch a close 3rd. A conditions race so some good enough horses. Evens, 9/4 and 7/1 the front 3. CAn we trust Frankie Dettori on Emrooz to place? 1.39 and 1.79 the front 2 to place

520 AYR - Joe Joe star remains the most obvious price gapper of the day, currently 4/9 in the live betting .1.17 to place. Again this is a class 6 0-60 handicap and we have a price gapper and as you have seen these rarely (well in fact haven't since I've been tracking!) finish out of the places. The major concern here is the " apprentice" element to this race. LAst race he won was a class 1 hurdle race. Flat form is 0-13 which is not enouraging but rarely makes a visit to class 6 company.

I know nothing about Lee Topliss apart form the fact his surname can be used to make jokes!

600 FAIRYHOUSE

Emperor Claudius now odds on shot for all conquering Ballydoyle and they rarely disappoint with their maidens who have had the one run already. 1.22 to place - the concern is 18 runners in this race - many maidens and those that have run have only had the one run and are therefore open to improvement - ditto the debutants who could be anything of course. Your faith in this one ,then, must be based on Aiden O'Brien and Murtagh's reputation

740 RIPON -Bobbie Soxer would be a good choice were it not for the fact its only 2 places in this race. 1.46 to place tells us this is a competitive little race. I do like Tigh O'Shea though as a jockey

800 FAIRYHOUSe - alas the pcitures aren't allowing me to move them so please look above for the 800 fairyhouse screenshot. You can see why this interests me . 2 clear market leaders BUT as mentioned earlier, how good is Aiden O'Brien's son as a jockey against seasoned Mick Kinane?

Dutching the front 2 pays out 1.18 equivalent, and they are 1.20 and 1.29 in the place only market.

820 KEMPTON - Janiero is very well backed here in this 2 year old novices stakes (the race type is offputting) - 2 places only and 1.17 to place

FEDERER plays Gael Monfils today and is 1.33. Although I think this is a very layable price to trade, as Monfils is such an athlete, if we put it into the context of the tournament with Murray and Nadal both out of the French Open, Fed will never have a better chance to lift the crown with his nemesis gone.

SHORTLIST
220 AYR - Flying statesman is 1.13 to place. A race fraught with danger though -one run only -10/1 last time - BUT 2 horses are 20/1 and 40/1. Surely this is a 3 horse race with 2 places?

But today seems to be maiden day and sub 8 runner day (meaning only 2 places)

240 NOTT is interesting but I can't split the front 3 and the horse with greater expereince has Spencer on board

520 AYR - another traditional price gapper in a 0-60 class 6 handicap and these have been superb for placings. Joe Joe star is the horse and 1.17 to place.

Potential niggles - 0-13 on the flat BUT class 1 hurdle winner when last seen. Lee Topliss is an unknown apprentice jockey

800 FAIRYHOUSE - I am likely to dutch Liszt and Adjaliya today in the win market. The reasoning? I expect the winner from one of these 2 but don't know which one and don't want to place back one incase if doesn't place and the other goes on to win . Aiden O'Brien's son on board is a little negative on Liszt - would prefer Murtagh.

FEDERER - 1.33 is very enticing given the circumstances of the French Open. He has been beaten in the Final against Nadal , and now Nadal is out, the incentive is certainly there to get the French Open title at last!

ONE A DAY

520 AYR - Joe Joe star for me at 1.17 is the best price gapper and fits my handicap system. Slight risk with this being an apprentice ridden race.

I will also be backing Federer today despite the fact this will be tough as Gael Monfils is at his home tournament BUT as I say, Nadal is out and Fed really won't win the French Open with Nadal in it in future!!

NOTE - a very difficult day of maiden races with horses who only have had one run , a day of races of under 8 runners and 2 places, and a day where the choice is in an apprentice handicap race. HARDLY MONDAY'S GREAT RACING IS IT?

IF Fed does it, then I'll pass Joe Joe start by