Saturday, 6 June 2009

6/6

The Czechs got the goal and really these friendlies are not good for the old heart! Fed also fought back from 2 down ,just to give his followers another fecking enchanced bet - available to back at 2.76 he was!

A superb day's racing at Epsom, but that doesn't necessarily mean superb from a place only perspective. The only solid thing there is that Aiden O'Brien should win the Derby, but on which of his multiple entries?

145 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pacha D´Oudairies, 7/2 Warsaw Pact, 4/1 Raslan, Shannon Springs, 10/1 King Jack, 12/1 Mister Wiseman, 20/1 Gift Of The Gods, 25/1 Just Silver, Lagosta, 33/1 Lucky Eric, 50/1 Blackanblue, Orion Star, 200/1 Marado.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PACHA D'OUDAIRIES, who had Raslan behind - Shannon Springs and Lucky Eric both came to grief - when going close over this C&D last time, can go one better. He has more scope for chasing than Raslan but Shannon Springs could be a threat if staying upright and chase newcomer Warsaw Pact may not be far away if taking to jumping fences.[DH]

3rd horse is a non runner and the live market shows 3 under 16/1 BUT look at the 200 Wolves yesterday - 3 horses under 12/1 and only ONE placed ( the fav luckily for me!) A beginners chase so race type must be accounted for 1.13 to place

210 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Grasscutter, 11/4 Ballyvesey, 9/2 Breeze Out, 11/2 Lord Samposin, 6/1 Ballymacduff, 100/1 Rivers Run Free, Whatevertheweather.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This could be the day when GRASSCUTTER (nap) receives his just deserts. Breeze Out may confirm superiority over Lord Samposin despite the penalty but an equal threat may be Ballyvesey, who now steps from bumpers to hurdles.[PJ]

6 runners now and a clear outsider and the fav odds on but still 2 places and jumps 1.34 to place

225 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Spacious, 3/1 Eva´s Request, 5/1 Alnadana, 7/1 Infamous Angel, 8/1 Red Dune, 9/1 Baileys Cacao, 33/1 Al Sabaheya, 40/1 Badiat Alzaman.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPACIOUS needs to return refreshed first time out but that's what she did last season, when going so close in the Guineas, and she had other form in that campaign that also makes her the one to beat here. Eva's Request is the biggest threat, if reproducing what she did last time, followed by Alnadana and Infamous Angel

Price gapper of sorts here BUT as we have seen all flat season, those without a recent run really have underperformed, some NOT EVEN PLACING 1.41 to place does hint that the market does not see Spacious as nailed on

240 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Evelith Echo, 9/4 Flemross, 5/1 Storymaker, 8/1 Willie Pep, 14/1 Doris´s Gift, Keene Spirit, 16/1 Double Gem, 66/1 Ebac.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Evelith Echo sets the standard and will take some beating under his penalty but FLEMROSS showed he's progressing along the right lines when third at Sedgefield last month and may be able to make the most of the 7lb he receives.[PJ]

HArd to beat selection this one 1.33 to place

245 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Safe Investment, 5/1 Early Wings, Just Like That, 7/1 New Rackheath, 8/1 Paperchaser, 10/1 Sea Robber, 12/1 Mycenean Prince, Pagan Sword, Picky, 16/1 Kenwyn, King Among Queens, 33/1 Working Late.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A low grade contest but likely to be competitive and plenty with claims, including EARLY WINGS, whose initial efforts over fences have suggested he's going to be a better chaser than he was a hurdler. Safe Investment hasn't proved well named but that could change over fences and he's rated a threat with the champion in the saddle, while Just Like That and Paperchaser are others worth considering



Now only 6 runners so yet again a 50/50 race with 3 places.BUT a very tight market

305 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Laughter, 7/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Amanjena, 6/1 Short Affair, 9/1 Amanda Carter, Just Lille, 10/1 Tactful, 14/1 Suzi Spends.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With unknown quantities Laughter and Short Affair in the field, this is probably not a race to get too heavily involved in, but the vote goes to AMANJENA, who looks the sort who could make a better 4yo
Another 6 runner 3 the place race -simply a lucky dip 50/50 chance

355 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Keepitsecret, 7/2 Gaelic Flight, 5/1 Dead Or Alive, 11/2 Commemoration Day, 6/1 Lord Ryeford, 8/1 Kilrogan, 16/1 Presentandcorrect, 20/1 Prince Massini.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A case can be made for most of these but GAELIC FLIGHT, who is in tremendous nick just now, is fancied to score at the main expense of Dead Or Alive and Keepitsecre

8 runners down to 4 - 3 places on betfair? Must be an outstanding opportunity to pick just one of the 4 to place and beat one horse

415 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Take The Stand, 14/1 Cadoulitique, Leading Pearl, Over To Joe, 20/1 Archie Babe, Charming Knight, Dix Huit Cyborg, Fifth Column, Jupiter Jo, Lowlander, Nocatee, 25/1 Del Trotter, Was I Right, 50/1 Ellandshe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAKE THE STAND, who retains a considerable slice of his ability, would prefer a longer trip but looks a cut above these rivals.[PJ]

You want a good example of a price gap - then take a look at this! 1.14 to place - hunter chase though

445 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Avertor, 8/1 Dilli Dancer, 10/1 Fatal Attraction, 12/1 She´s In The Money, 16/1 Barley Bree, 25/1 Whisper Softly, 33/1 Moneysupermarket, Roodee King, 66/1 Exceed Elegance, Francis Albert,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Roger Charlton has already had one very short-priced favourite beaten in the north this week but AVERTOR sets a high standard and it will be a major surprise if he can't get off the mark.

Another price gapper 1.08 to place

450 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Rupestrian, 9/2 Shaker Style, 12/1 Flaming Blaze, Irish Saint, 14/1 Hill Cross, Pontardawe, 100/1 Moon Warrior.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RUPESTRIAN looked a cut above your average early-season juvenile hurdler when making a winning debut and can follow up at the expense of Shaker Style.[PJ]

And another price gapper! 1.15 to place - only 2 places

530 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Famous, 9/2 Humor Me Rene, 5/1 Wedding Day, 6/1 Sammuramat, 8/1 Your Gifted, 10/1 Full Of Hope, 12/1 Della´Alba, Fiona´s Spirit, 14/1 Kims Dream, 20/1 Bahamian Dove, Brosna Tied, Core Element, Intapeace, Pink Lemonade, Shake It Loose, Too Close, 25/1 Cinnamon Tart, 33/1 Big In Japan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FAMOUS makes an eagerly-awaited debut, with the ride going to a very capable apprentice, standing in for his senior colleagues who are on duty at Epsom. The Danehill Dancer filly is an own-sister to the stable's Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Mastercraftsman, who was himself a star juvenile last season when winning his first four races, including the Phoenix Stakes and the National Stakes.\n

Eagerly awaited as Spotlight tells us and a price gapper BUT never run before and a big field maiden, even though it is Ballydoyle - illiquid market

640 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Danzoe, 7/2 Toga Tiger, 5/1 Refuse To Wait, 11/2 Bradford, 8/1 Saint Sebastian, 25/1 Opus Dei, 33/1 High Rolling, Mason Hindmarsh, 50/1 Havelock Flyer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Toga Tiger is proving expensive to follow and may find one to good again - this time in the shape of DANZOE, who looked a little unlucky to come off second best in a tight finish at Leicester last week.[

Two 2nds augur well for this fav BUT note the number of debutants 1.22 to place - illiquid market

720 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Chachamaidee, 11/2 Gundaroo, 6/1 Areeda, First Term, Hasty, 7/1 Pastel Blue, 8/1 Mrs Boss, 12/1 Athwaab.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only two with a run behind them and, with the others all hailing from leading yards, a race in which the betting should provide important clues. The importance of previous experience should never be underestimated, however, and MRS BOSS may know too much for potentially better types at this stage. Chachamaidee is a likely threat.[FC]






8 down to 5 and hopefully 3 places

830 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Maurice Utrillo, 7/2 Cilium, 4/1 Sarawati, 6/1 Spinning Well, 7/1 Final Approach, 20/1 Crista Galli, Richmond, 25/1 Acushladear, Gatto Nero, Rocketscience, 33/1 Altogether, Malandrino, Mugan Bean, Space Race, 50/1 Miss Red Eye, Regrette Rien, Tax Dodger.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAURICE UTRILLO, who was beaten just under 2l by subsequent Group 3 winner and Irish 1,000 Guineas third Oh Goodness Me on her debut in a maiden at Gowran last September, looks best here with his rider claiming the full allowance. On his only other start at two, the Sadler's Wells colt was an odds-on favourite at Tipperary, but did not look at home in heavy ground and was outperformed by the stable's other runner Rockhampton, as the pair were placed behind favourite Nafaath.\n

Well fancied Ballydoyle favourite with Aiden's son on board -illiquid market

FOOTBALL
13:00 Zambia vs Rwanda 4/9
My hone country ( well I was born there) so come on you Zambians. Whether I will back up my allegiances with money is another matter!
16:00 Kazakhstan vs England 18/1 13/2 1/7
Dare we trust these overpaid players to actually put up a performance? 1/7 you expect an easy victory
16:30 Slovakia vs San Marino 1/66
1/66 should signify goals. Expect at least 3 from the home team
17:00 Belarus vs Andorra 1/18
See above 1.06 to win. 1.31 half time/full time
17:00 Finland vs Liechtenstein 1/14
And again 1.13 the win. 1.43 half time/full time. 1.18 over 1.5 goals
19:45 Albania vs Portugal 8/1 3/1 2/5
2/5 away from home looks good for the Pork and Cheese 1.41 the win 1.34 over 1.5 goals (trade)
19:45 Iceland vs Holland 9/1 7/2 1/3
Ditto the dutch who have a great attacking line up 1.41 the win
19:50 Italy vs Northern Ireland 1/5
Don't expect a rout here at all as the Northern Irish really do their country proud in all games
22:00 Argentina vs Colombia 3/10
Messi, Tevez, Riquelme et al But they bombed out big style in a previous game ( although it may have been a friendly) 1.31 the win
CHOICES
Belarus, Finland and Slo vakia in a treble? pays out 1.17
Straight back of England?
SHORTLIST

245 WORC, 305 DONC, 355 WORC and 720 LING are 4 races which are superb opportunities as they are generally 50/50 races. 6 horses , 3 of whom will place
355 WORCESTER is standout as it is 3 places and 4 runners I would place back the live market favourite here, who looks to be Dead or alive. You'd have to be an unlucky fecker for one of your selections not to place, but of course there is no such thing as a sure thing and anything can happen

415 HEXHAM - Take the stand is 1.14 based solely on the very eyecatching price gap.

SLOVAKIA 1.16 to win half time/fulltime is very big fo a 1/66 shot - there's £600 available currently at 1.15. They are 1/66 and surely must have an outstanding chance of scoring a goal in the first half to no reply
FINLAND 1.13 to win outright is reasonable enough

ONE A DAY
Probability wise, it must be the 355 Worcester - 4 horses - 3 places -just make sure you pick the horse that does NOT get beaten by 3 others in a 4 horse race. Default for me would be the favourite here -Dead or alive currently at around 1.10 - crap odds but GREAT probability
Football wise, Slovakia at 1.16 to win half time/ full time looks very enticing.

There are many many many outstanding opportunities today, so if your opinion differs from mine, then get stuck in!




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