I got involved in the Atalanta match for my level stakes £100 bet, and than God for trading, as I got out when Inter went 1-0 up and the odds for Atalanta rocketed to 28.
Better safe than sorry even if Jose maintained his solid home record.
Again, one a day helps because the 1.1 shot drew and Saltburg lost!
215 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Yeadon, 9/2 Silver In The Sand, 5/1 Bow Beaver, 20/1 Bring Sweets, 25/1 Mercers Row, 50/1 Countrymans Dream, Stanley Bridge.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to look beyond YEADON though the distance and ground are different than when he shaped so promisingly on his debut in a stronger race at Ripon. Silver In The Sand may be the one to bustle him up. |
Looks a 2 horse race between Yeadon and market m0ver Bow weaver who has come in for plenty of support. BUT Yeadon, an expected 1/2 shot, is struggling to hold on to favouratism Again, though, this is a maiden, the fav has only had one run and he market mover is a debutant 1.26 AND 1.35 THE front 2 tells us this is 2 places as it is quite high for a 1/2 shot
340 NAAS
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INXILE is a confident choice to give his trainer a third successive win in this race. |
410 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Love Lockdown, 2/1 Beethoven, 3/1 Diva Dolce, 7/1 Rockymountainhigh.
A very good card at Naas today as it is a bank holiday and Beethoven, for BAllydoyle is just about favourite - again 2 places and no real rock solid outsider 1.35 and 1.25 the front 2 to place - again market not fully formed
415 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Impressible, 7/2 Compton Ford, 4/1 Noodles Blue Boy, 14/1 Positivity, Rio Cobolo, 20/1 Ice Attack, Lucky Dan.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IMPRESSIBLE (nap), a half-sister to the stable's top sprinter Reverence, is coming along nicely and should have too much quality for these. Compton Ford may offer most resistance.[AWJ] |
2 out including the 2nd fav should make the fav's job a little easier here. 2 horses at 12/1 and 20/1 hopefully won't get involved leaving 3 for 2 places 1.25 to place
500 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Perfect Friend, 6/1 Alexander Loyalty, Astrodonna, Caster Sugar, Tikka Masala, 8/1 Superstitious Me, 16/1 Inconspicuous Miss, 20/1 City For Conquest, 25/1 Plaka, 33/1 Applesnap, Yughanni.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alexander Loyalty and Caster Sugar both make some appeal but PERFECT FRIEND (nap) comes here at the top of her game and can take this before the handicapper has the chance to reassess her.[PSm] |
Price gapper in a class 5 0-70 is more pronounced in the live market 1.33 to place. NOTE-this is not quite as clear cut as Cwm Rhondda is it? Cwm Rhondda is the template for these low handicap price gappers.
610 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Anjomarba, 3/1 Flapjack, 8/1 Alphacino, Highcliffe Bridge, Inlovingmemory, 14/1 Zaskia, 25/1 Coralamber, Johnnyleary, Three Sons, 50/1 Aryacoddinme, Nidamar.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Flapjack will find this easier than the Goodwood maiden in which she was a bit disappointing last week but preference is for ANJOMARBA (nap) who was different class to plating opposition at Yarmouth having run consistently well in maidens previously.[FC] |
A 2 year old selling stakes race and he 2nd fav is out which makes the price gap from Anjomarba to Alphicino more pronounced now. Fav is clear odds on now but remember the race type! 1.14 to place.
710 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Splendorinthegrass, 4/1 Doc Jones, 14/1 Son Of Monsieur, 16/1 Neva A Mull Moment, Whirlijig, 25/1 Aaman, 28/1 Simply Sensational, 33/1 Special Adviser, 66/1 Bathwick Pursuit.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPLENDORINTHEGRASS, a brother to the decent pair Etlaala and Selective, sets a good standard on the form he showed in the Horris Hill at Newbury and his pedigree suggests he'll cope with quicker conditions than previously. Doc Jones is clear second-best on paper.[SB] |
The conundrum we have faced all flat season. No run since September 2008 is the problem here. Running in races of much greater quality than this though and it's a matter of keeping faith in the trainer's ability to keep the horse interested 1.1 to place
755 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 J J The Jet Plane, 5/1 Edge Closer, 8/1 Intrepid Jack, Sohraab, 10/1 Icelandic, 25/1 Genki, Shallal.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All eyes on the crack South African sprinter J J THE JET PLANE and although this will put him spot on for Royal Ascot it will be disappointing if he is not up to the job with doubts about most of his rivals. A back-to-form Edge Closer, who has the tongue tie returning this evening, would be his biggest threat.[AC] |
Another price gapper in a listed race, and a talking horse, Apotlight does mention this as a "prep race" for Ascot - do we interpret this as a must win or a must-get-a-run-into-him?
With only 2 places we have to be sure.1.25 to place
FOOTBALL
What I try to do in this blog is sniff out all possible opportunities in a given day and then look for "THE ONE" which I feel has he greatest chance of coming off to keep the record going.
Here England U19 v Scotland U19 and laying the scots with £100 fixed liability produces a £14 profit ( the equivalent of BACKING a 1.14 shot isn't it?) -as I did with Atalanta yesterday.
Of course under 19's football can be unpredictable but it is hoped that the bookies have chalked up England accurately and home advantage will ensure they DON'T LOSE. Trading is available with this game which means, like Atalanta, if England score first ,the odds for Scotland are likely to be about 20.
SHORTLIST
The first race I will discount although i should involve Yeadon and the market leader. I am not taken by the apparent lack of confidence in the live market with Yeadon.
340 NAAS inxile is 1.22 to place in an illiquid market. It is the price gap here which entices me -it is very pronounced. I would seem that the horse is less than straightforward and ideally when we bet at such short prices, we really want everything to be sound. POSITIVES? The Nicholls partnership on the flat can be trusted. Solid 5 furlong form for the fav.
NEGATIVES? I've said it before - Ireland is he graveyard for odds on jollies. We have the likes of Eyebrows Kinane and Wachman/Lordan against us
415 CARLISLE - Impressible is 1.25 to place which is enticing given the 2nd fav is a non runner, we are lft with a 5 runner field and 2 horses are 14/1 and 20/1
500 LEIC - Perfect friend at 1.33 looks tasty enough but is no Cwm Rhondda so not striclty a price gapper in a lowly handicap. Wha is of interest is that the horse is running of the same mark as recent enouraging runs.
610 THIRSK - Anjomarba is 1.1 to place in a 2 year old seller , the job made easier by the defection of the fav, but I doubt this will be a one a day selection given the nature of the race and the price
755 WINDSOR - J J the Jet plane 1.24 to place - one of the horses the media has been highlighting (hence why I call them talking horses) Only 2 places but if the hype is to be believed this one should place at least ( with only 4 horses to beat to place, one of which is at 20/1)
ENGLAND MATCH - 1.14 equivalent bet looks reasonable against the Jocks. -
ONE A DAY
A lo f superb listed races today and I have said it before, all horses i n listed races must be there because they are good!
415 CARLISLE - Impressible I think will be my one a day with the absence of the 2nd fav.I hate doing 2 places only especially in handicaps but this is now a 5 runner race with 2 at 12/1 and 20/1.
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