200 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 King Supreme, 5/2 It´s A Date, 4/1 Sharpazmax, 5/1 Outlandish, 13/2 Remember Ramon, 16/1 Babilu.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IT'S A DATE could be the answer to a tight little handicap, his reappearance second at York giving him every chance and he could find a bit more with that run behind him, Sharpazmax is respected but the biggest danger may come from topweight King Supreme. [Mel Cullinan] |
The day begins with a 50/50 race. 4 horses vying for 2 places and really I cannot rule out any of the 4. This is characterised by the outsider being 7/2!!
210 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Classic Swain, 2/1 Nordwind, 9/2 Persian Warrior, 10/1 Eddie Dowling, 14/1 Phar Again, 16/1 Just Victor, 25/1 Split The Wind, 50/1 Grey Dasler, 100/1 Bestowed, Monsieur Sub.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Classic Swain has the ability to go in again but his desire remains questionable despite winning with some authority at Newton Abbot. NORDWIND is preferred under his ideal conditions and in a race that should be run to suit.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones] |
2 very familair horses at the head of affairs in another top heavy market. Only 3 under 10/1 in the betting forecast and it's only 3 under 12/1 in the live market.
The front 2 are taking up the majority of the book. Expectation is for the winner to come from these 2, BUT will both of these horses place? 1.2 and 1.18 the front 2 -market expects these 2 to dominate
240 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Tubber Gael Holly, 4/1 Ice Bucket, On You Go, Shake The Barley, 8/1 Vital Spark, 10/1 No Greater Love, 12/1 Cheeky Lad, 20/1 Eljay´s Boy, Flashy Sir.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shake The Barley and Ice Bucket are likely to be thereabouts but Irish raider TUBBER GAEL HOLLY has benefited from blinkers and her last couple of runs bring her right into the equation |
Ice bucket has come 2nd in his last 4 runs in class 4 handicap chase company and this is a sequence that will be broken, either way, soon. The hope is that he can get a "1" instead of the 2's. Interesting BUT 7/2 the field indicates a competitive affair. 2.02 to place tells you how competitive this is
245 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Love Lockdown, 5/2 Roi De Vitesse, 9/2 King Ledley, 6/1 Dream Deer, 10/1 Avonrose, 16/1 What About Me.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The presence of two British juveniles gives added interest but, provided the ground stays on the good side, LOVE LOCKDOWN should take all the beating. An impressive win in an auction maiden at Leopardstown last month was followed by a better performance when he landed a conditions event at Naas. On that occasion, he gave a couple of pounds to Ballydoyle colt Beethoven and beat him by a head, the two pulling well clear of their rivals. He looks a smart colt.\n |
"should take all the beating" - well with only 2 places for grabs, he would have to be solid to be a place only contender. All of the contenders have won in their last 2 races ,and there is no collateral form ties between Love Lockdown and the 2 english raiders so their strengths, or otherwise, are tough to evaluate. 1.49 to place - highly illiquid market here
310 CHANTILLY
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is all about STACELITA, who has looked a superstar in the making and is taken to provide her trainer with yet another domestic Classic success. The manner in which she dealt with the opposition last time was impressive and it would be a surprise were she to meet with defeat. Celimene, another unbeaten filly, may well prove to be best of the rest, ahead of Tamazirte, a stablemate of the favourite who should be suited by this step up in trip.
A "surprise were she to meet with defeat" - that's what I want with my one a day bets - a surprise if the bet does not come off.
4 wins thus far for Stacelita - surely if they're that bullish about the horse winning, then to place should be a doddle?
BUT this is a group 1! 1.36 to place is enticing given the confident write up
340 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Diana´s Choice, 6/4 Palace Moon, 11/2 Judd Street, 9/1 Carcinetto, 20/1 Spanish Bounty, 25/1 Ballyalla.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DIANA'S CHOICE (nap) and Palace Moon stand out and may well have the finish between them. Palace Moon is entitled to considerable respect but adjusted BHA ratings suggest that Diana's Choice has 12lb in hand and, with such a big advantage at the weights, she is readily preferred. [Mel Cullinan] |
Early support for Palace Moon here,, now odds on, could prove significant in a race whee only 2 are under double figure odds.
A class 1 listed race, so, regardless of odds, all horses are there by merit. Diana's choice has 12 lb in hand as you can read above so why the money for Palace Moon? 1.52 and 1.21 the front 2 - quite a noticeable difference with Palace Moon favoured in the place only market too
455 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Hills Of Aran, 3/1 Winsley Hill, 4/1 Black Beauty, 20/1 King Jack, 100/1 Blackanblue, Oneforbertandhenry.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Winsley Hill and Black Beauty can make a race of it but HILLS OF ARAN was way superior over hurdles and his facile win at Southwell was just the job at this early stage of his chasing career.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones] Always an element of confidence when the champion jockey is on board a hotpot. He simply gives his all looks a 3 horse race and 2 places - 2 mile 7 over obstacles is a long way but we should get a good run for our money with AP in the saddle 1.18 to place here 530 STRATFORD BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Great Mates, 3/1 The Donserelli, 5/1 Oscar Tom, 10/1 Onechoice, 14/1 Megastar, Wricksons Bridge, 16/1 Gunner Be Lucky, 20/1 Bold Buccaneer, Mumbles Pier, 33/1 Friendship Bay, Our Deb´s Delight, 50/1 Greatdolly, 100/1 Lady Anne Boleyn, Sheila´s Castle.
Half brother to racing demon who had these bumpers for breakfast, Great Mates has a great chance of running well again. As ever with bumpers, the live market is worth looking at but should concern the front 2 this race 1.24 to place FOOTBALL Let's face it, Spain should batter New Zealand tonight in the Confederations Cup and 1.08 looks as safe as house despite being a very short price. Enhance the bet? - Halftime Spain 1.31. CAn they win at half time? Spain Next goal 1.14 BUT NZ scored first, albeit against a 2nd string Italy Over 2.5 goals - 1.34 The site of the correct score2 market signals Betfair expect goals and Spain thrashed Azerbaijan 6-0 recently. SHORTLIST 310 CHANTILLY - Stacelita is 1.36 to place and if the horse runs how the Racing Post previewer expects, a place should be well within this smart one's compass. 340 SALISBURY - in what could be a 2 horse race, the market has sided with Palace Moon above Diane's choice. 1.21 to place for the selection in a 2 the place market, this is a class 1 listed race and there are no real outsiders inthese uality races 455 STRATFORD - the ever dependable AP McCOy in Hills of Aran - 1.18 to place here but it is 2 miles 7 furlongs Won a 3 miler last time by 48 lengths at 8/13 , he's 1/2 today. With only 4 opponents, one at 14/1 and one at 100/1 ,will 2 horses beat this one? (proviso of course is that he does not fall, get pulled up or unseat rider - we always face this risk when jumps betting) SPAIN to beat New Zealand at 1.08 is stingy but should come in with ease.I am taken by the over 2.5 goals here at 1.34 (with a view to trade out as I did with that fav when I was last on the blog-1.34 -look to get out at 1.15 or around that - the great thing about this neutral bet is if NZ score first, overs is assured) Villa and Torres against some Kiwi sheep farmers - should come in shouldn't it? NOTE - a bet to TRADE ONE A DAY Must be over 2.5 goals Spain v NZ (or appearing with NZ first on the coupons) Horses? Lots of good prospects and I will personally risk Stacelita at CHantilly based solely on the bullish Racing Post comments. A bit of a risk given the class of the race but 1.36 is a good price. SO IT'S SPAIN OVER 2.5 GOALS (TO TRADE) AS MY ONE A DAY | ||
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