19/6

My 2 dutches came off with Yeats winning the 345 Ascot, and the draw/draw half time fulltime in the Frederikstad game
3-1 to Randheim in the 89th minute and I was cursing involvement in this Norwegian Cup game! Then, hey presto, 2 goals in the 90the minute brought about a draw -unbelievable.
You saw why I was generally reluctant to get involved with Ascot with shorties misfiring all over the place
The 230 AScot dutch I know a couple of readers did and that came in with Radiohead winning - but Monsieur Chevalier unplaced, Leocorno uplaced, Freemantle unplaced showed that this was a highly competitive day.
THe money for Amazing Tiger continued throughout the day and he won on a superb 4 timer for Dazzler Holland.
So, despite some of my bets to look at misfiring, the key is the one I finally choose actually winning - that's the one a day philosophy.

230 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Lillie Langtry, 2/1 Aegean, 12/1 Chachamaidee, Sweet Sonnet, 20/1 She´s A Character, 25/1 Kurtanella, 33/1 Habaayib, Jira, 40/1 Above Limits, Falling Angel, 50/1 Absolute Music, Leleyf, 66/1 Curtains, Flyinflyout, 100/1 Baileys Vision, Bell´s Ocean, Chicita Banana, Core Element, Eternal Instinct, 150/1 Kate Skate, 200/1 Patteresa Girl, 250/1 French Connexion.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lillie Langtry has bright prospects of following the example of Cuis Ghaire who won the same Naas Group 3 on her way to victory here last year but she faces a very serious rival in the shape of unbeaten AEGEAN, whose Churchill Downs win was franked in no uncertain terms by Jealous Again on Wednesday. Chachamaidee may be the pick of the others.[Frank Carter]

22 runner group 3 fillies race anyone?
IF the market is to be believed this race is done and dusted - it's Lillie LAngtry versus Aegean. Only these 2 under 14/1 and only 4 under 25/1.
Again Wesley Ward brings one of his American sprinters over and his sprinter yesterday faltered . Lillie has the proven turf pedigree though. No Murtagh today but Jamie Heffernan is a standard choice for Ballydoyle.
Logic tells you not to get involved given the numbers, but the market tells you otherwise

255 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Baizically, 7/4 Grandad Bill, 9/2 Forrest Flyer, 10/1 Jane Of Arc,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The thriving Baizically has to be feared on this hat-trick bid but he may struggle to give weight to GRANDAD BILL, who is proven here and looked in good heart at York a week ago.[Ben Osborne]

50/50 race with 4 runners and 2 places. Baizically is on a hatrick but we all know about multiple handicap winners - increased weight in each consecutive race means te end of the winning run is inevitable - but today?
Should be a 3 horse race with ,hopefully, the 12/1 horse playing no real part. 1.37 and 1.42 the front 2 to place.

330 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Northern Flyer, 9/4 Minturno, 8/1 Cash In The Attic, Quick Gourmet, 12/1 Ask Dan, Lost In Paris, 20/1 Flynn´s Island, Meydan Groove, 25/1 Our Apolonia, Reel Bluff.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NORTHERN FLYER and Minturno are the two that stand out. Preference is for the former who acted well round here when posting a career best recently and hasn't finished improving yet.[Ben Osborne]

A class 6 0-65 handicap and 2 price gappers 2/1 and 9/4 with next best at 8/1
As yoou know prie gappers in this grade tend to be consistently placed, but which of the 2 do we chose to place?
Northern Flyer is preferred in the market

410 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Raccoon, 2/1 Silvanus, 11/2 Creative, 8/1 Dubai To Barnsley, 25/1 Alfie Lee, Throw The Dice, 100/1 Mutayam.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RACCOON and Silvanus should dominate at the weights. Of the pair, Raccoon is more reliable and his proven winning attitude can help him bag a fourth C&D success.[Ben Osborne]

Hugely consistent placed form from Raccoon but 2 the place here means that we cannot have any slip ups. The 3 at 25/1 or bigger should ensure a less competitive field for the fron 2, but again a top heavy market and rarely will this finish 1-2 for Rac and Silv 1.29 and 1.59 the front 2 to place

445 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mountain Cat, 3/1 Kabis Amigos, 6/1 Shunkawakhan, 8/1 Grand Diamond, Ninth House, 10/1 Bold Indian, 14/1 Red Skipper, 25/1 Fern House,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOUNTAIN CAT has thrived since joining Alan Swinbank and, given the manner of both his recent wins, he rates an obvious candidate to defy this penalty. Kabis Amigos can chase him home.

Another multiple hadnciap winner in Mountain cat - hint of a price gap in the live market and currently evens so fancied NOT to go unplaced today

520 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Argentine, 4/1 Spirit Of Coniston, 5/1 Rocketball, 6/1 Ridley Didley, 14/1 Blazing Heights, 20/1 Distant Vision, 33/1 Mr Rooney,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for ARGENTINE (nap), who's thrived since joining his current yard and can complete the four-timer with the help of his apprentice's 5lb claim.[Ben Osborne]

A theme is emerging today. Argentine is on a 4 timer today, and is interestingly odds on to do it. Normally the market will hint at us when a multiple handicap winner is likely to fall short. Jamie Kyne takes off some of the penalty weight.
Although it says 8 runners, one is doubtful which means 2 places which is not the ideal
REMEMBER though that multiple handicap winners eventually lose, but will this one lose today and by losing, go unplaced too?

525 LIMERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mark Twain, 4/1 Reggae Dancer, 5/1 Shabassh, 6/1 Cuckoo Hill, 10/1 Light Years Ahead, 14/1 Cognomen, 16/1 Walter De La Mare, 25/1 Red Fighter.

Ballydoyle 1-2 in the market and the suspicion is the winner will come from these. 1.16 and 1.32 to place the front 2

640 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Crime Writer, 9/2 Fine Silk, Liberty Trail, 10/1 Lady Bluesky, Riley Queen Bee, Tahayab, 12/1 Yes Please, 14/1 Halcyon Dancer, 16/1 Al Wasef, Fifth Amendment, 50/1 Howards Way.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Liberty Trail having something to prove on the back of a disappointing effort, this could be best left to CRIME WRITER, who has shown enough in two runs to date to think he had races in him. Fine Silk is a well-bred newcomer and any market support would look significant.[Paul Smith]

Follow em when they're hot. ! We saw with Amazing Tiger yesterday that when there's confidence in the ring, the Mark Johnston horses in maidens tend to win, and this may be the case with Crimewriter -a 3-2 already, preference would be for Joe Fanning 1.13 to place

700 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Moiqen, 5/1 Indiana Gal, 7/1 Dance Pass, 8/1 Ard Na Greine, 10/1 Aliyfa, 20/1 Wanna.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks like an almost unmissable opportunity for MOIQEN and it would be a real surprise if he were beaten.

Now that's the kind of confidence I want to read from Spotlight. Good jockey/ trainer combo - only concern is it's 2 the place and is Ireland. the graveyard of the odds on shot

705 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cwm Rhondda, 3/1 Falcon Rock, 4/1 Saloon, 5/1 Graylyn Ruby, 16/1 Apache Fort, La Rosa Nostra, 20/1 City Stable, Silent Applause.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It often pays to follow a filly on a roll and CWM RHONDDA can complete a hat-trick under her capable apprentice with her stamina expected to pass this test. Graylyn Ruby and Saloon can follow her home.[Adrian Cook]

You remember Cwm Rhondda? A superb example last time of a price gapper in a low grade handicap who sluiced up last time. Falcon Rock is the non runner here and is a significant one. Hopefully 3 places but the price gap for Cwm is not as eyecatching as it was on her last run. I alluded earlier to possible clues that a winning run would end. Well the live market shows her at 2/1 and another at 9/4 ,quite close - compare that to Argentine

735 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Al Qeddaaf, 5/1 Carbon Hoofprint, 9/1 Drum Dragon, Night Knight, 12/1 Hawk´s Eye, Waahej, 14/1 Edgeworth, Mutually Mine, 16/1 Avoir Choisi, Striding Edge, Sultans Way, 25/1 Caerus, Grand Honour, Sapphire Prince, 33/1 Big Nige, Petsas Pleasure.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was difficult not to be impressed with the manner in which AL QEDDAAF (nap) and he's taken to follow up. Carbon Hoofprint, who is also officially ahead of the handicapper, is feared most.[Steven Boow]

"should take the beating"-so Spotlight comments on this price gapper

FOOTBALL
Sporting Fingal are 1.13 to beat Kildare County this evening - I'm just going purely by price here
Kildare have lost all 7 away from home this season.
Kildare County have lost all of their last 12 matches, and this is a sequence that must end sometime, but Sporting at home? Well I don't think their losing streak will end tonight. Expect victory by 2 or 3 clear goals
Sporting fingal won 8-0 at Kildare last time out

SHORTLIST
230 ASCOT
Lillie Langtry is an enticing 1.45 to place ,but logic does tell us that backing a short priced fav(remember Freemantle yesterday!) in a 22 runner top quality group 3 6 furlong sprint is not the key to long term profits.
But, again, I may be drawn into the price gap here, and 1.45 is certainly fine for a compounding target profit per dayer (as it is near enough to 1/2 for us to not fear any great losses)
Level stakers though might want to risk a potential 45% return in the hope the hype is founded.
You know as well as me that everything must fall into line in such a big field and only 3 places means that Mr Heffernan on board must get it spot on for us to collect

255 MUSSELBURGH - a 50/50 race here with 4 runners vying for 2 places and the price of 1.37 about Baizically and 1.44 about Grandad Bill are enticing. Jane of Arc is 5.2 to place and so hopefully can be discounted.
So who to pick -that's the problem. We have a multiple handicap winner and Grandad Bill who receives the weight. Forrest Flyer is the fly in the ointment.
I would hope, if involved here, that the front 2 finish 1 and 2 - it's difficult to pick one of the 2 main principles to place here

410 MUSSLBURGH
Raccoon is enticing given the hugley consistent placed form . Odds on here and 1.29 to place in the first 2
3 horses are 33/1 or bigger leaving 4 fighting for 2 places

520 MUSSELBURGH
Argentine is 1.37 to place, but only 2 places and a multiple handicap winner whose winning run will end sometime. 2 places means the claimer must get this spot on. Odds on shot too so the market thinks the claimers allowance will help Argentine go close.

525 LIMERICK - Mark Twain at 1.16 (3 to place) has a great chance of placing under Aiden O'Brien's son Joseph. 6th and 2nd show the usual progressive form for O'Brien horses.
4 horses are debutants and as was shown earlier in Ireland, these outsiders can cause upsets especially as they are an unknown quantity

640 AYR
Crime writer is 1.13 to place in an illiquid market (likely to rise) and is set to continue the excellent form of Mark Johnston in maidens ( as was seen with Amaing Tiger yesterday) Mark has been superb in these northern tracks this month and the market is certainly on Crime Writer's side.
Like Amazing Tiger, he's now odds on and it's some 5 hours to kick off.

SPORTING FINGAL must be mentioned at 1/13 to beat a team who have lost their last 12 matches. Head to heads - Sporting won 8-0 at Kildare's place in April, are hugely clear on the ratings ( check out www.betdevil.com -irish 1st divison) and should coast this.
BUT this is Ireland and the football is poor quality but I cannot see any suprise here.
NEGATIVES - not in running so once we bet we cannot trade)

ONE A DAY
NAILED ON ONE A DAY will be Sporting Fingal for sure this evening for me, but if anything arrives earlier I will take it
230 ASCOT - another dutch here is enticing. From a horse racing perspective, the race is ultra competitive.
Froma ahorse racing perspecitve I would look to the 255 Musselburgh and baizically or grandad bill. I will place back the live market leader here. This is likely to be Baizically who has only gone up 2lbs for his last win.