Cosmopolitan won , and did you notice the 735 Haydock? down to 4 runners and still 3 places. Outstanding bet on the fav at 1.13 to not get beaten by 3 horses in a 4 horse race. The non runners were not apparent at time of writing yesterday -do watch out for these races.
Followers on live chat will have glimpsed Smoke and mirrors have an excellent day - got the 20/1 winner that beat jj the jet plane, followed by a 16/1 winner and a 14/1 winner and 14/1 2nd in the same race.
You'll get days like this with smoke and mirrors.
A good first day for the live chat and some went for over 1.5 goals in Spain's game which eventually came. I opted for a lay of South Africa, and a lay of New Zealand. The latter was always precarious at 0-0 and any other strikers with an ounce of ability could have won this game for either side with better finishing.
220 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Shiwawa, 5/1 Urban Tiger, 6/1 Sumak, 8/1 National Heritage, 9/1 Word Of Warning, 14/1 Ice Image, 25/1 Hunt Ball, 40/1 Freda´s Rose, 50/1 Endeavor, 66/1 Bed Fellow, 100/1 Abbey Express, Glengap, Mountskip, 150/1 Cabin Gate, 200/1 Whatevertheweather.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be relatively straightforward for SHIWAWA (nap), representing an in-form yard that won this race in 2008. Urban Tiger and National Heritage can fight out the minor honours.[Stuart Redding] |
Price gapper here. Biggish field though and hurdles. Still, looks a 6 horse race unless there's any smoke/mirrors type signals lurking amongst the also rans at bigger prices 1.14 to place is pretty low for a big field novice hurdle
Urban Tiger placed 16 times from 32 runs!
225 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Boxing Day, 2/1 Montecchio, 5/1 Marfach, Palm Ridge, 10/1 Goldarover, 12/1 Todd´s Forge, 14/1 Sichuan Province, 20/1 Cementry Lane, She´s A Staker, 33/1 Sunday Driver.
O pointed out 2 Ballydoyle winners yesterday at Downroyal, and Boxing Day is now evens , has had 2 runs, and is likley to improve. 1.2 to place. Concern this is top heavy market and we have to hope Boxing day and Monticello fight it out
340 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Drumfire, 4/1 All The Aces, 5/1 Halicarnassus, 11/2 Furmigadelagiusta, 13/2 Fairmile, 8/1 Sugar Ray, 14/1 Zaham, 16/1 Unleashed.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With All The Aces having been kept away from fast ground this term and Halicarnassus having run at Royal Ascot on Friday, the door may be open for DRUMFIRE who ran so well last time in the Brigadier Gerard.[Richard Austen] |
hot jockey fresh from a 4 timer at Ayr with hot trainer -Johnston again.
8 down to 6 and 3 places
Still a listted race so all horses are handy enough 1.29 for Drumfire to place. Will he get beaten by 3 in this 50/50 race?
415 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Gold Blossom, 3/1 Cappagh Strand, 7/2 Nice Dream, 10/1 Iklwa, 12/1 Midsummers Day, 14/1 Four Kicks, Gothen Niece, 16/1 Annalast, 33/1 Zuton, 50/1 Bloomsday Babe, Four Seas.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GOLD BLOSSOM, whose half-sister Silk Blossom won the Lowther Stakes in 2006, will never get a better opportunity |
Now odds on for Lordan/Wachman 1.17 to place - illiquid market
440 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Spiekeroog, 5/1 Shemoli, 11/2 Longboat Key, 13/2 Theola, 20/1 Riptide, 40/1 Sirjosh, 100/1 Antipodean.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It might be a contest between Shemoli, Longboat Key and Theola for the places but, as far as winning is concerned, this race should be all about SPIEKEROOG.[Richard Austen] |
Yes, again shortie in maiden based only on one run. Race worked out well though. Only 3 under 16/1 BUT 2 places so we have to be spot on 1.23 to place
450 HEX
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dead Or Alive, 3/1 Mr Robert, 5/1 Come To The Party, 9/1 Iron Hague, 16/1 Got The Gift, Nastjir, 25/1 Butter, 33/1 Minstalad, 40/1 Corporation, 50/1 Scuzme, 66/1 Fettler, 100/1 The Masters Lesson.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DEAD OR ALIVE has been making hay over fences recently and has another good chance on this switch back to hurdling. Mr Robert carried his head a bit high last time but still did the job well and looks the chief danger, followed by Come To The Party.[Richard Austen] |
"very much the one to beat" if as good over hurdles as chase fences 1.16 to place
The 2 confederations cup games don't really appeal but I would favour Brazil over aging and idea-less Italy. LAying Italy/Italy at 7 half time/full time is the same as a 1.16 bet
Egypt are odds on to beat the USA and with the Yanks having 2 games in succession with 10 men and looking leggy in their last match, the Egyptians would be favoured.
A lay of USA at 5 is the same as a 1.23 bet
Under 4.5 goals at 1.13 looks reasonable
SHORTLIST
225 GOWRAN
boxing day was shd shd 3rd last time and is well matched with market rival Montechio.
hint of improvement with each run for this Ballydoyle runner and could be good for a place at least here. Same could be said for Montechio too though.
Dutching the first 2 is a 1.18 shot.
1.2 and 1.25 to place. I would side with boxing Day here to continue the traditional improvement with running that is charaacteristic of Ballydoyle juveniles
340 PONTE - Drumfire has a " major chance" - 2nd fav is out, 6 runners - 3 places -1.29
NEGATIVE - class 1 listed means all horses are decent enough
440 PONTE - 7 runners, one at 66/1, one at 40/1, one at 33/1, one at 20/1 leaves 3 horses at 4/7, 7/2 and 5/1
The fav is strongly fancied by Spotlight 1.23 to place. It is hoped this is a 3 horse race and the race revolves only around those under 20/1
Laying Italy/Italy half time/full time at 1.16 eequivalent looks very enticing. Will Brazil lose the first half and lose in 90 minutes?
ONE A DAY
Probability wise the 340 Pontefract looks the place to go with Drumfire at 1.29 -another 50/50 race with 6 horses running for 3 places
2nd and 3rd betting forecast favourites are out and Drumfire was the original favourite for the Racing Post tissue with these 2 included, so my argument is that he is a stronger favourite with these near market rivals out?
"down in class and major chance" states Spotlight.
Concern is these are major stables represented 9as you'd expect in a class 1) but will Drumfire get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race?
You know by now mark Johnston's stable is in fine fettle and we have a jockey in Dazzler buoyed by his recent 4 timer at Ayr.
Lots of evidence to support place backing here.
My eye will be on the earlier races too incase market confidence makes the horses stronger candidates.
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