8
Alas I cannot recount to you reaction bets - those that occur after I have commited to the blog!- reaction to significant non runners. A significant non runner (Criterion) in this race really left the favourite under Choc Thornton with a far easier opportunity and I pounced ( you'll recall in the past why I try to do the blogs as near to race time as possible) - he came 2nd.
A comment was left on the blog after one reader had noted a 6 runner race with 3 runners paying 3 places at Hamilton - again because I wrote the blog too early I missed this opportunity.
Here's the Worcester race again as it appeared on the blog yesterday
140 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Khumbu, 7/2 Criterion, 5/1 Converti, Quedillac, 20/1 Von Galen, 25/1 Bathwick Lucy, 33/1 Blessed Forever, 40/1 Alfie Valentine, Grenoli, 50/1 Filly So Fickle, Lucky Jimmy, 66/1 Simplyirresistible, 100/1 Bickwell.
The non runner was Criterion, and as you could see, with only 4 under 20/1, with Criterion out it was only 3 under 20/1 remaining and an obvious opportunity for Khumba to capitalise?
Yet another reader backed just Spain to win in the match odds market,and this was perhaps a wise decision given we are looking for bets where it would be a SHOCK were that bet not to oblige. Half time Spain winning would not have been as much of a shock as Spain not beating Iraq in 90 minutes
Of the horses mentioned, khumba placed as seen, Miss Phoebe won, Lush lashes unplaced in a race won by Smoke and mirrors bet Spacious, Tartan Bearer placed, Northern empire placed, Queen of Pentacles won, Silver symphony won, Maverin placed, Rosenborg at 1.2 won 7-1.
Me? I made the wrong decision (but as you saw I got my money early in reaction to late non runners) and the goal came 10 minutes too late ( 55th minute) in the Spain match!!
All down to one decision isn't it!
Perhaps there is a need for an update nearer the off again because had I done this yesterday then Khumba would have been the selection as one a day.
Remember this blog is not written in stone and you must personally decide whether any of the opportunities presented are better than the one I may have personally chosen. As you saw yesterday nearly all selections put up produced a placed horse .
Before I start today, my sister is running the Guernsey half marathon this weekend and she is running for a charity https://www.bmycharity.com/V2/henrybroughton so if you fancy chucking a couple of shekels to this worthwhile charity please feel free
220 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Femme De Fer, 11/4 Turning Top, 11/2 Cross Section, 13/2 Acrosstheuniverse, 10/1 Wotasparkler, 16/1 Winterbourne, 20/1 Rosie Two, 25/1 Ile Royale, Jiggalong, 33/1 Paris In Mind, 66/1 Hilltop Legacy, Kilmeena Dream,
Alas I cannot recount to you reaction bets - those that occur after I have commited to the blog!- reaction to significant non runners. A significant non runner (Criterion) in this race really left the favourite under Choc Thornton with a far easier opportunity and I pounced ( you'll recall in the past why I try to do the blogs as near to race time as possible) - he came 2nd.
A comment was left on the blog after one reader had noted a 6 runner race with 3 runners paying 3 places at Hamilton - again because I wrote the blog too early I missed this opportunity.
Here's the Worcester race again as it appeared on the blog yesterday
140 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Khumbu, 7/2 Criterion, 5/1 Converti, Quedillac, 20/1 Von Galen, 25/1 Bathwick Lucy, 33/1 Blessed Forever, 40/1 Alfie Valentine, Grenoli, 50/1 Filly So Fickle, Lucky Jimmy, 66/1 Simplyirresistible, 100/1 Bickwell.
The non runner was Criterion, and as you could see, with only 4 under 20/1, with Criterion out it was only 3 under 20/1 remaining and an obvious opportunity for Khumba to capitalise?
Yet another reader backed just Spain to win in the match odds market,and this was perhaps a wise decision given we are looking for bets where it would be a SHOCK were that bet not to oblige. Half time Spain winning would not have been as much of a shock as Spain not beating Iraq in 90 minutes
Of the horses mentioned, khumba placed as seen, Miss Phoebe won, Lush lashes unplaced in a race won by Smoke and mirrors bet Spacious, Tartan Bearer placed, Northern empire placed, Queen of Pentacles won, Silver symphony won, Maverin placed, Rosenborg at 1.2 won 7-1.
Me? I made the wrong decision (but as you saw I got my money early in reaction to late non runners) and the goal came 10 minutes too late ( 55th minute) in the Spain match!!
All down to one decision isn't it!
Perhaps there is a need for an update nearer the off again because had I done this yesterday then Khumba would have been the selection as one a day.
Remember this blog is not written in stone and you must personally decide whether any of the opportunities presented are better than the one I may have personally chosen. As you saw yesterday nearly all selections put up produced a placed horse .
Before I start today, my sister is running the Guernsey half marathon this weekend and she is running for a charity https://www.bmycharity.com/V2/henrybroughton so if you fancy chucking a couple of shekels to this worthwhile charity please feel free
220 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Femme De Fer, 11/4 Turning Top, 11/2 Cross Section, 13/2 Acrosstheuniverse, 10/1 Wotasparkler, 16/1 Winterbourne, 20/1 Rosie Two, 25/1 Ile Royale, Jiggalong, 33/1 Paris In Mind, 66/1 Hilltop Legacy, Kilmeena Dream,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Turning Top has the best piece of form on offer, albeit over 1m, and is unexposed on turf but FEMME DE FER certainly didn't look short of speed when narrowly beaten at this trip on her debut and can build on that promise.[Steven Boow] |
2nd fav is a non runner - makes Femme's job a bit easier?
Only 3 horses under 12/1 but this is a maiden and this horse has only had the one run again. 1.19 to place.
230 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Monsieur Chevalier, 9/4 Yogaroo, 8/1 Radiohead, 10/1 Tawaabb, 12/1 Here Now And Why, 14/1 Nosedive, 16/1 Kingdom Of Light, 25/1 Reignier, 28/1 Running Mate, 33/1 Star Rover, 40/1 Diamond Johnny G,
2 clear market leaders from the bookies and Monsieur is unbeaten ( but winning runs do end eventually)
The Yanks are close behind with Yogaroo under Jonny Velasquez the legendary American jockey (who could teach Frank Spencer a thing or 2 about race riding) Trainer is 2 from 2 this week with 2 year olds.
And I think it is important to remember these are 2 year olds!! 1.3 to place is certainly enticing for Monsieur Chevalier
The front 5 in this race can all be dutched for a 1.11 equivalent bet
305 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Leocorno, 11/4 Take The Hint, 7/1 July Jasmine, 8/1 Flying Cloud, 12/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, Mooakada, 25/1 Uvinza, 33/1 Anice Stellato, Totally Devoted, 200/1 It´s Dubai Dolly
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A trio of fillies in TAKE THE HINT, Leocorno and Flying Cloud, who could have been significant players in the Oaks if connections had opted for Epsom. Preference is for the Gosden filly who is going to be ideally suited by this longer trip and has the strongest form of this trio, having yesterday's Listed winner Moneycantbuymelove and Oaks fifth The Miniver Rose well beaten off on her return at Newmarket. |
6 only under 25/1 andhopefully the race will revolve around these. As ever, it's highly competitive.The front 6 have 9 recent wins between then! I remember Leocorno as he was a previous one a day bet and has Ryan Moore onboard. Only had 2 runs though. 1.48 to place indicates the competitive nature of this race
320 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Gap Princess, Mutamared, 3/1 Turnkey, 10/1 Steel Blue, 14/1 Dr Wintringham, Uace Mac, Woqoodd, 33/1 Dalarossie, Nacho Libre, 66/1 Paint Stripper, Union Jack Jackson, Western Art.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not too many to consider. Turnkey is the pick of the weights but he's shown himself to be well suited by courses with stiff uphill finishes and it remains to be seen whether things will pan out as well here. Gap Princess is a player but has a poor last run to overlook so preference is for prolific AW winner MUTAMARED, who ran well in a competitive handicap at Epsom last time and makes plenty of appeal from the rail draw back in this grade. [Richard Young] |
A look at Mutamared's form and he looks unimpressive until we see he has been running in class 2 and class 3. Over the week, these shorties in claimers who are dropping in grade have run consistently. This is a claimer though and surprises can occur.
5 horses under 20/1 1.3 to place
345 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Yeats, 3/1 Geordieland, Patkai, 6/1 Veracity, 25/1 Eastern Anthem, 33/1 Centennial, 40/1 Hindu Kush, Sagara, Washington Irving.
We saw with Lush Lashes yesterday that a poor previous run can be offputting, but, hey, this is YEATS! Look at the betting forecast and it's 4 horses under 25/1 - this is replicated in the live market and I suggest it should be these 4 that we focus on.Geordieland was back to winning ways last time.
The question mark regarding Yeats is how we take his poor last run - any excuses? Ground? Losing form?
Murtagh has the winning thread at Ascot this week so is certainly the right man to have on board.
This is a 4 horse race and again dutching the first 4 is a 1.11 chance which is excellent.
1.45 Yeats to place - will he make history? Will 1.61 Geordieland serve it to him today?
455 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Freemantle, 7/1 Four Winds, Glass Harmonium, Monitor Closely, 10/1 Palavicini, 16/1 Cashelgar, 20/1 Spring Of Fame, 25/1 On Our Way, 33/1 Big Bound, Satwa Ruby, 50/1 Ra Junior, Too Much Trouble, 200/1 Kaolak.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Aidan O'Brien won this in 2004 and 2005 and fields a strong candidate in FREEMANTLE (nap), who only just failed to make all in the Dante on his return last month. Monitor Closely and Glass Harmonium can fight out the second spot.[Adrian Cook] An Aiden O'Brien price gapper must always merit considerable respect. Freemantle is the horse in question this time. Beaten by Black Bear Island last time by a head - not a bad horse to get beaten by! Has only really had the one run in group company and yet to run in listed company which is a concern. 1.28 to place Very noticeable price gap but all quality 3 year olds in this listed race 620 FFOS LAS BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Plunkett, 9/4 Ffos Las Diamond, 9/2 Flexi Time, 15/2 Older And Wiser, 10/1 Ballyvesey, 14/1 Francly Flora, 25/1 Ballygulleen, 33/1 Mexican Honeymoon, Sylroy, 50/1 Fealing Real, 100/1 Tara Gale, Tubby Nugget.
1st race at the 1st new jumps venue for years and it is highly predictable that Ffos Las Diamond ,under McCoy ,is the odds on favourite, based largely on name of horse rather than this one being a true odds on shot. Only 5 horses under 25/1 but dare we get involved in the first race at a new track? 640 LEICESTER BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mingun Bell, 4/1 Contract Caterer, 11/2 The Mighty Mod, 7/1 Ishtar Gate, 9/1 Comedy Act, 20/1 Second Brook, 25/1 The Caped Crusader, 33/1 High Resolution, Sir Bruno,
8 runners now and only mentioned as Mingun Bell is odds on now. A maiden where he has only had one run 1.14 to place 650 FFOS LAS BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Turf War, 5/1 Dantari, Rampant Ronnie, 11/2 Cootehill, 7/1 Venir Rouge, 8/1 Tayarat, 14/1 Ghufa, 20/1 Alfie Noakes, Attrapeur, 25/1 Another Bottle, 33/1 How Is It Going, Piper´s Song, 50/1 Taxman, Twill, 100/1 Pembo, Planetarium.
Big price gapper in live market (albeit some 7 hours before race time) 7/4 - - - - 6/1 Concern that this horse has run exclusively in Ireland so form lines are difficult to collate 755 LEOPARDSTOWN BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Famous Name, 7/2 Shreyas, 13/2 Deauville Vision, 7/1 Finicius, 8/1 Festival Princess, 10/1 Always Be True, Celtic Dane, Fiery Lad, 14/1 Marquesa, Monteriggioni, 20/1 Glowing. Weld/Smullen onboard an odds on shot must be considered here. A listed race and Ireland, more than anywhere, does tend to see surprise results 1.18 to place 800 MUSSELBURGH BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Storming Sioux, 11/4 Amazing Tiger, 4/1 Soho Secrets, 16/1 Drumadoon Bay, 25/1 Carnival Dream, 33/1 Oriental Gem.
Now 5 runners and good money for Amazing Tiger and with good reason. Mark Johnston juveniles have been superb of late, especially his debutants who have won a few this week gone. Only 2 places alas but any selection only has 3 to beat to place, and one of those 3 is 50/1 , making this a 4 horse race for 2 places - a 50/50 race 1.21 and 1.26 the front 2 to place 845 TIPP BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Our Musician, 6/1 Red Hot Poker, 8/1 Clicksnmortar, 10/1 Split Ear, 14/1 Vic Mo Chroi, 25/1 Ballyquinn, Quiverhill Mystar, The Shepherd, 33/1 Drominvir, Island Oscar, 50/1 Benefaster, Kilclooney Dancer, Oscar Prairie, Strategic Alliance, 66/1 Fairymount Lord, Good Point, Kitty O D, Walter Blue, 100/1 Dry Rein, Mary Sheehan,
Price gapper who is " hard to overlook". I don't like odds ons in big field Irish races though but this is an eyecatching price gap. 1.37 to place FOOTBALL Lesson learned from yesterday - stick to bets where it would be a shock if we did not get a result - half time Spain was not that bet yesterday, match odds Spain to win in 90 minutes one ( and congrats to that reader who used his own initiative and went with that bet.  ITaly v Egypt - perhaps lay Italy - it's like a 1.17 bet.BUT Egypt were impressive v Brazil BRAZIL V USA The markets indicate this may be difficult for Brazil to break through 1.24 for over 1.5 goals is very enticing. 1.37 for Brazil to win -well they were 3-1 up against Egypt. Will the 10 man game the USA had to play have taken, proportionally more out of the Yanks? 1.3 for Brazil to score 1st in the next goal market is good ,given they scored 1st against Egypt and the USA look a little lightweight up front Germany under 21 are 1/3 to beat the Finns and England beat the finns with 10 men. 1.3 for Germans to score the 1st goal (Next goal market) could be a good option.
 1.26 on Betfair for this Norwegian Cup game and all the shorties obliged yesterday, standout being Rosenborg who won 7-1 (but were 1/12 to do so)Randheim, I believe, are in the 2nd division and I have found this potential one a day bet, backing home team half time /full time, the draw/ home side and draw/draw. This, of course, assumes that Randheim play no part and do not win either the first half or second half, and, indeed, that Fred win or draw both first and second halfs. 1/6 hints at this but it is a cup game Molde vs Kongsvinger 1/3 2nd in the Nowegian first division play 2nd in the 2nd division SHORTLIST 230 ASCOT - the dutch is certainly very enticing at 1.11 to bring us back to a winning thread. Monsieur Chevalier is top draw and 1.3 to place is relatively big because of the quality of the opposition Richard Hughes back on board and he's a great one to have on your side. Sequencially, Monsieur will lose eventually BUT if he loses, will he still place I would prefer him to the Jonny Velasqez mount Yogaroo as Monsieur has the turf form in the bag. 345 ASCOT - While I would prefer to find a bet anywhere else than super competitive Ascot, I must mention this race as there are only 4 horses under 20/1 who should have this race between them in an ideal world. 2 mile 4 is a strange flat race distance and requires great judgement of pace from the jockeys - they go too early and they're sitting ducks, they go too late and it becomes a sprint. Yeats has won this 3 times with great rival Geordieland just behind. What is a concern is the poor recent run from Yeats as discussed earlier. The dutch as shown is a preferred option as it should cover the main protagonists. 1.45 YEats, 1.68 Patkai , 1.63 Geordieland to place If you feel YEats is vulnerable then Geordieland at 1.63 is a great price 455 ASCOT - Freemantle is a price gapper for all conuering Ballydoyle 1.29 to place with Murtagh onboard 755 LEOP odds on Famous NAme represents the superb Weld/Smullen combination and should make his mark but these quality races in Ireland can be open affairs 800 MUSS Should be between Amazing Tiger and Storming Sioux. The concern here is that it is difficult for the front 2 to always finish 1-2 and there could be a surprise which scuppers one of these 2's chances of success. Amaing Tiger represents Mr Mar Johnston whose 2 year olds have been super. Now strong market leader, 1.21 - can we trust the market move - this is a maiden after all, 5 horses but one at 40/1 can be discounte we would hope, so 1.21 for a 50/50 bet FOOTY Brazil 1/3 to score first looks a decent bet but they may find USA a little difficult to break down? Frederikstad halftime/fulltime dutch is very enticing and presupposes the opposition cannot win at half time or full time. 1.15 is a great return ONE A DAY So what do you fancy then? Take yesterday's readers' experiences and make your own mind up with the evidence given as it may differ from mine. Me? Well the Frederikstad half time/full time dutch would be a great bet, and I will also dutch the first 4 in the 345 Ascot hoping this market is good and there are no surprises in those 20/1 or above. Straight bets? Well Amazing tiger at 1.21 may be worth the risk with the early support for this one in a 50/50 race. The hope is that this race revolves around Storming sioux and Amazing tiger - 800 MUSSELBURGH Freemantle would be an earlier straight place bet in the 455 Ascot based really on the price gap. So follow me or decide yourself |
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