29/6

Enchanced bets case study USA V BRAZIL

Perfect enhanced bets example last night. 1.45 Brazil go 2-0 down and are available to back at 7. I availed myself of some of this and traded out after they scored and the price reduced to 3.8 although if I had had kahunas, I would be sitting on a £600 profit after they got the 3-2 win !

Needed faith this bet but those watching the match did see a good Brazil performance and a USA side that was more easily breached than they had been against Spain.

There were plenty of one a day opportunities over the weekend and I hope you got some - Fame and Glory was superb at 1.20 yesterday for example and Andy Murray against that bloke last time out 3-0 looked nailed after the nerves had settled.

230 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Sarasota Sunshine, 9/2 Villaruz, 11/2 Angelo Poliziano, 13/2 Tillers Satisfied, 15/2 Deckchair, 8/1 Billy Beetroot, 12/1 Two Turtle Doves, 14/1 You Avin A Laugh, 16/1 Piccolinda, Tarruji, 18/1 Dalepak Flyer, 20/1 Come On Buckers, 33/1 Maigh Eo.
DIOMED VERDICT: SARASOTA SUNSHINE gets the vote ahead of Villaruz and Angelo Poliziano

It's always an advantage if you have a focus on one specific horse and ,for me, that is Billy Beetroot. Held now in last 2 runs - is he a layable price for a one a day lay bet? 13.5 to lay

300 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Harry Up, 11/4 Northern Empire, 6/1 Know No Fear, 15/2 Russian Rocket, 10/1 Spic ´n Span, 11/1 Diane´s Choice, 14/1 Pressed For Time, 16/1 Decider, 18/1 Bertbrand, 25/1 Fire Up The Band, Woqoodd, 28/1 Tag Team, 33/1 Meikle Barfil.
DIOMED VERDICT: NORTHERN EMPIRE is narrowly preferred to Harry Up.
This new Diomed is really rubbish !

HArry up and Northern Empire are 2 that form a price gap

Now Harry Up is a non runner, will this make Northern Empire's chances even better? 1.41 to place. Good runs do eventually end sometime and especially in these low grade affairs

400 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dabbers Ridge, 5/2 Beauchamp Viceroy, 5/1 Hanoverian Baron, 13/2 Strabinios King, 9/1 Mocha Java, 12/1 Haroldini, 18/1 The London Gang, 20/1 Dazzling Colours, 25/1 Appelouse, Ten Pole Tudor, 33/1 Sun Catcher, 40/1 Broughtons Silk.
DIOMED VERDICT: DABBERS RIDGE is marginally preferred to the useful but quirky Beauchamp Viceroy.

I must be getting desparate checking out an apprentice riders claimer but, again, a significant non runner (2nd fav) may make life easier for the market principles to place?

5 horses in the live market are under 20/1 - the ones to concentrate on perhaps? Dabbers ridge , of course, has shortened in the live betting market 1.42 to place

430 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Coloursoftheglen, 11/4 Bradford, 9/2 Fonterutoli, 11/2 Motivational, 6/1 Bandear, 10/1 Execution, 14/1 Bonfire Knight, 33/1 Port Hill, 66/1 Reel Love, Woodenitbenice, 100/1 Beach Boy, Ellies Image.
DIOMED VERDICT: COLOURSOFTHEGLEN should have plenty to offer switched to the AW on what he's shown on turf at this trip.

3rd fav a non runner and he had some decent form relative to a maiden such as this so a worthy rival can now be discounted.

The front 2 have the form in the book - I like to see consistent placed form especially when looking at maidens. 1.31 and 1.41 the front 2 to place

POSITIVES - 4 of the 11 remaining are 66/1 or bigger

NEGATIVES - 4 debutants (could be anything?) - 7 once or twice raced horses open tio significant improvement?

Market leaders also face debuts on the all weather - will they cope with the kickback, keeping in mind these horses are still have the old learner plates on!

710 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Fyodor, 7/2 Leftontheshelf, 4/1 El Dececy, 7/1 Bertie Southstreet, 8/1 Duke Of Milan, 9/1 Matuza, 16/1 Irish Music, 20/1 Outer Hebrides, 25/1 Bolshoi King, Silver Salsa, 33/1 Richardlionheart, 40/1 The Jailer, 50/1 Fly In Johnny, Talamahana.
DIOMED VERDICT: He may not have the best form claims but EL DECECY's win record at this level in 2009 is not to be scoffed at and he gets the vote.

El Dececy has found his level in these races and was put up before when he won, but strangely priced at 3/1 for one with such a good record in sellers 1.68 to place

755 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Licence To Till, 5/2 Mal And Dave, 7/2 Ignatieff, 6/1 Mercers Row, 10/1 Jigajig, 16/1 Sir Christie, 40/1 Camacho Flyer, Charity Fair.
DIOMED VERDICT: LICENCE TO TILL wouldn't need to be anything out of the ordinary to make a winning debut and market support would be significant.

I've already flagged this up plenty of times - Mark Johnston juveniles in maidens are simply on fire ,especially at the northern tracks. A quite outstanding win and place record most recently, ESPECIALLY IF THE MONEY IS DOWN, and with this race at 755, we cannot really tell at time of writing - Licence to Till is the horse in question

810 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Racing Hero, 6/1 Pelham Crescent, 7/1 Rio Guru, Trans Siberian, 8/1 Buddy Holly, Quince, 12/1 Roly Boy, 14/1 Resurge, 16/1 Blow Hole.
DIOMED VERDICT: Tidy Doncaster maiden winner RACING HERO has a good opportunity to win a handicap at the first attempt.

First real price gap of the day and replicated in the live market at the time of writing.

Ryan Moore ridees for Jeremy Noseda. Handicap debutant the concern but if we can have faith in the price gapper philosophy, then this is shortlisted in a poor day's racing 1.16 to place - so long to go til the start of the race and so strong already in the market!

825 MUSS

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Mooted, 3/1 Solas Alainn, 4/1 Thorny Mandate, 5/1 Piper´s Song, 11/2 Papa´s Princess, 12/1 Ptolomeos.
DIOMED VERDICT: SOLAS ALAINN can take advantage of a fair mark dropped back in grade. Mooted is feared most.

Early money for the Johnston horse Solas Alainn has pushed that into favouratism BUT note this is not a Johnston juvenile. 1.57 to place

SHORTLIST

A poor day's racing with potentially firm grounded Pontefract and the all weather at Wolves this afternoon, and 2 turf flat meetings this evening

430 WOLVES - Coloursoftheglen is interesting here if running as he did on his last 2 2nd places in maiden company - problem is this horse is an all weather debutant

Only 6 horses under 33/1 should be the ones who are there at the finish. There are a few 5/1 - 7/1 horses itching to get inolved in what looks a competitive enough remainder of the field.

755 MUSS - One for nearer the off. If the market speaks for Licence to Till, then get stuck in I think, but is far to early to make any comment with race somne 8 hours hence

810 WINDSOR - Racing Hero the only bonefide price gapper of the day making his debut in a handicap and priced to be extremely competitive.

No footy on today

Murray 3-0 and 3-1 dutch is 1.17 equivalent bet. I'm just going by the 1.07 odds which suggest an easy victory

Federer/Murray/Djokovic multiple is 1.13 payout but of course is not reliant on a single outcome, rather on 3 separate bets coming in

ONE A DAY

A very poor day's racing if truth be told. The shortlisters all look good enough but each comes with their own niggles.

COLOURSOFTHEGLEN - debut on all weather - how will this (still learning) horse cope with kickback? Maiden race - looks a 6 horse race if we can discount all those 33/1 or bigger

LICENCE TO TILL - working purrely on reputation and recent record of trainer here as this is a debutant - cannot make a decision as far too early and this will really be prevalent on the actual live betting market and perceived money for this horse

RACING HERO - Perhaps THE pick today but another niggle - a handicap debutant -has the handicapper assessed this one properly? THe price gap is very very eyecatching even this early on

MURRAY 3-0 and 3-1 dutch. Will Andy continue in the confident form of last time out with the nerves of the first match behind him 3-1 and 3-0 dutch is certainly enticing

All being well, I can get live chat going this afternoon for the afternoon racing ( although it is poor today I will have to guage live whether it is worth spending time live over poor race types with 15 min delays between racing)

Instinct tells me the Murray dutch is good, as this is tradeable and later on this evening the Racing Hero price gapper looks to be the one with the LEAST niggles! HE was an actual palce only pick last time if memory serves. These would be my one a day considerations

As hinted at ,all shortlisters look good and the hope is, using live chat (if I can get it configured on this new pc) that We can react to late non runners who may produce some good place only opportunities. So I'll be putting my faith in Ruby Murrayto curry favour with us dutch sets bettors!