It's a beautiful day today where I am and if the sun is shining, the ground might firm up, which like its other exreme, heavy, will not suit all horses. We shall see.
220 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Flying Statesman, 9/4 Fantastic Prince, 11/2 Layali Al Andalus, 10/1 Paradise Spectre, 33/1 Island Express.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fantastic Prince showed good speed when just touched off at Newmarket but he may help set the race up for FLYING STATESMAN, who ought to benefit tremendously from a highly encouraging debut in a stronger maiden at York.[BDO] |
5 horses and 3 places, one outsider and the hope that Paradise Spectre won't get involved could open things up for the odds on jolly? But, yet again, he is another one time only maiden 2 year old.
240 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Musical Bridge, 7/4 Intolerable, 5/2 Choisharp, 14/1 Sandy Par, 33/1 Shybutwilling, 50/1 Captain Peachey, Cindy Incidentally, Titus Gent, 100/1 Lydia´s Legacy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Choisharp probably needs a bit further or a stiffer track judged on his Newmarket run so it should pay to focus on the Bath maiden in which Musical Bridge finished two places ahead of INTOLERABLE. The latter is the one open to improvement and Ralph Beckett is clearly content on having another crack at the runner-up.[AWJ] |
Only 3 horses under 14/1 the ones to concentrate on in another maiden race
7/4 , 7/4 , 11/4 the front 3 -cannot really be split and the assumption must be, if we get involved, that these 3 will be the ones who fight out the finish. The problem with top heavy markets like this is there is inevitably a dark horse who runs well and pushes 1 of the top 3 out of the places
300 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Black Jacari, 7/2 Tri Nations, 4/1 Master At Arms, 9/2 Duty Free, 6/1 Freddy´s Star, 10/1 Bruff Academy, 20/1 Dichoh, 50/1 Ormond Lad, 100/1 Obrigado, Tchang Goon.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some punters will be reluctant to give BLACK JACARI another chance but going without the headgear on his return from a break looks a good move and Alan King's recent runners on the Flat have been in fine form.[AWJ] |
Looks a 5 horse race. Choc and king on the fav are a formidable combo but there is , as Spotlight mentions, a lack of real consistency from the horse. You can have the best jumps jockey on, but if you haven't got the horse then.....
310 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Velvet Band, 2/1 White Daffodil, 9/1 Lady Royal Oak, 11/1 Raine Supreme, 12/1 Miss Lauz, Val C, 14/1 Reel Credit Crunch, 20/1 Moonlight Babe, Princess Shamal, 50/1 Antique Diamond, The Midshipmaid.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VELVET BAND (nap) and White Daffodil set a reasonable standard and, with their previous experience an obvious advantage over a clutch of newcomers, may well be able to dominate. On bare form there isn't much between the two but Velvet Band's debut raised the strong possibility that the drop back to 5f may well enable her to improve, so she is preferred on that basis. [MCu] |
410 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Emmrooz, 5/2 Khateeb, 100/30 Dubai´s Touch, 8/1 Royal God, 10/1 Docofthebay, 25/1 Elna Bright.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EMMROOZ put up a fine effort on his first start for 16 months when chasing home proven Group performer Bankable in a very useful Nad Al Sheba handicap in February and, if running to that level back on British soil on this first run since, should be hard to beat. Khateeb is preferred to Dubai's Touch as the main danger |
Interesting contender this Godolphin horse - price gap between the first 2 and the next in the live market. Only 2 places and a class 2 conditions stakes. Potential problem is this fav will have an unnaturally low price as housewive's favourite Frankie Dettori is onboard
520 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Joe Jo Star, 6/1 Darfour, 8/1 Beaumont Boy, 10/1 Hawkit, 16/1 Dolly No Hair, 20/1 Bumble Rose, Oh Landino,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JOE JO STAR has been found a decent opportunity to cash in on what looks a very lenient Flat rating given the cracking form he produced as a hurdler this spring.[BDO] |
biggest price gap of the day here and although it says 8 runners, and there's a non runner, that non runner was "doubtful" so I suspect it's 2 places only
600 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Emperor Claudius, 5/2 Grace And Virtue, 7/2 Million To One, 5/1 Toparch, 7/1 Cornakill, 8/1 Bankrobber, 12/1 Bonita Springs, Miracle Match, 14/1 Deise Dream, 16/1 Hero Of Waterloo, Ibelieveinmiracles, 20/1 Team Rosario, Whisk, 25/1 Lake Cresent, Paydaar, 33/1 An Toglach, 50/1 Cavan Girl, Lucky Beguine,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EMPEROR CLAUDIUS looks the one to beat. He was backed into favouritism for his debut at Leopardstown last month, in the end finishing a one-paced third to Love Lockdown. The form has worked out well, the winner has landed a conditions race at Naas, and fifth placed Velvet Flicker won a Leopardstown maiden. This is competitive, but he looks an improver.\n |
Ballydoyle favourite but a big field. Has had the one run and Aiden's horses always improve for the run
740 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bobbie Soxer, 3/1 White Shift, 9/2 Mabait, 8/1 Fathey, 9/1 Paddy Bear, 12/1 Tagula Breeze, 14/1 Caranbola.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tactics could be important with no habitual pacesetter, though Fathey has gone from the front and Caranbola sometimes made the running as a 2yo. BOBBIE SOXER (nap) makes the most appeal turned out under a penalty after last week's convincing Leicester success, with White Shift feared most and Mabait also hard to leave out of calculations.[SB] |
Hardened at the head of the betting but outsider at 14/1 only tells you this is a typical competitive handicap. PRice gap is accentuated in the live market but with some 8 hours til race time, it is folly to make a decision on this race
800 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Liszt, 7/4 Adjaliya, 8/1 Casbah Rock, 10/1 Billys Dream, 16/1 Echua.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LISZT (nap) looks to have an excellent chance of giving Joseph O'Brien his second winner in the saddle. His juvenile form looks good, having finished a decent fourth to Mourayan in a Leopardstown maiden last July. He followed that up by accounting for Fergus McIver on heavy ground at Gowran in October. In two runs this season, he has acted in a pacemaking role in the Ballysax Stakes and Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. Racing on his own merits, he looks the most likely winner.\n |
In an ideal world this would concern Liszt for Ballydoyle and Adjaliya for Eyebrows Kinane. My concern here is that Daddy has given the ride here to sone Joseph, and to be honest he is NOT Jonny Murtagh and has the ride only because of his surname.This is really offputting and I hope I eat my words when he wins!!
840 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dubai Echo, 7/4 Merdaam, 5/1 Acquavella, 13/2 Interdiamonds, 16/1 Merchant Man, 25/1 Bogula, 40/1 Princess Aliuska.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There isn't a great deal between the two form horses on paper. MERDAAM, who has progressed steadily in three outings, gets the narrow vote over Dubai Echo, for all that the Stoute gelding may yet confirm the promise of his reappearance. Newcomers Acquavella and Interdiamonds are worth monitoring in the betting. |
A race which somes up today really. A maiden, only 2 places and a top heavy market which begs the question " will these 2 be fighting out the finish?"
It's only 1125 and with the first race not off til 210pm, I will do an update at 1pm. First impressions? A tricky day with only the 520 Ayr looking straightforward ( and still has a niggle with only 2 places)
I hope he firm ground will bring in some late withdrawals to hopefully create a probability bet ? BAck at 1pm
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