This was too good to ignore, as the first set was NOT even finished, but layers obviously thought 3-0 was in the bag!
So a winning one a day bet only if traded, as I know some do. With these long term bets - could be hours in tennis, get out as early as possible for the lowest odds possible.
It was for this eventuality that live chat was brought in and so it proved yesterday. Before Murray anyway, Rock of Love, Everymanforhimself and Burns Night were highlighted as potential good place bets ( the latter coming as Betfair crashed with was frustrating as yet another Mark Johnston supported juvenile wins)
200 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 William Morgan, 7/2 Merseyside Star, Trailblazing, 4/1 Reallymissgreeley, 10/1 Ya Boy Sir, 14/1 Lucky Traveller, 25/1 Gypsy Jazz.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see how the market speaks about William Morgan, but TRAILBLAZING is bred to do a lot better than he showed on his debut and his yard's juveniles have been in really good form. |
And so to another in Trailblazing, currently 7/4 favourite and some support. Only 2 places alas. For how long with Mark Johnston continue with this superb juvenile form ( 2 wins yesterday from 2 highlighted) It will end eventually, he said pessimistically. 1.78 to place today emphasises the tight nature of this race
Has leapfrogged into favouratism. Why is stable jockey on the 33/1 outsider for another trainer? Hmmm!
220 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Factotum, 2/1 Vacario, 4/1 King´s Alchemist, 7/1 Galilean, 14/1 Sweet As Pye, 20/1 Houri, 25/1 Across The Divide, 33/1 Benefit Game, Owen´s Sedge, 100/1 Elegant Olive, It´s Molly, Jeanry, The Duckster, 200/1 Midsummer Bay.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Factotum has made a sticky start over hurdles and it wasn't necessarily a step forward in winning at Uttoxeter so preference is for VACARIO, who appeared to be a lot more focused on the job with cheekpieces applied here last time. King's Alchemist is a danger to both of them |
McCoy proved his worth on shorties yesterday -more of the same today or Factotum? 4 under 14/1 in the betting forecast
4 under 20/1 in the live betting Front 2 look to have been found a " weak race" as Spotlight says. Suspicion Factotum doesn't find much but surely the McCoy persuader will keep him alive.
POSITIVES - only 4 runners under 20/1 hint at a lot of deadwood.
A 2 miler so the obstacles are not as much of a concern than if this were 3 mile 6 for instanace
1.2 and 1.38 the front 2. McCoy was superb yesterday on the short priced fancies -can we rely on the Champ again?
255 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Native City, 7/2 Keoghs Tradbar, 9/2 That´s An Honour, 11/2 I´m A Legend, 6/1 Bathwick Breeze, 8/1 Carthys Cross, 10/1 Katalak, 14/1 Letham Island, 33/1 Gunner Rose, 50/1 Marado, 66/1 Lansdowne Princess, Overton Lad, Yes Ses Les,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NATIVE CITY, a winner on this card 12 months ago, steps out of handicap company for the first time over fences and it looks a good move, as this is an extremely weak race and one he should win if putting his best foot forward.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones] |
McCoy on another shortie, price gapper in the live market Concern he was only 5th of 9 under today's jockey last time out. Live market 6/4 - - - - 6/1 - price gap but Betting forecast had this a bit closer. 2 mile 7 a long distance 1.43 to place
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hasty, 3/1 Gumnd, 11/2 Chairman Pat, 7/1 Rezwaan, 8/1 Duplicity, 12/1 Dubai Miracle, 14/1 Invincible Prince, 20/1 Durham Town, 33/1 First Cat, Mountrath,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HASTY gets the nod in view of the continuing good form of her yard and her conqueror last time going on to acquit herself very well in higher company at Royal Ascot. Chairman Pat is her nearest rival on form but Gumnd was clearly expected to do a lot better on her debut and could be the one to chase her home. |
Progressive form for the favourite here but a maiden race 4 one time outers open to potential improvement.4 debutants too who could be anything. race a long way away so market must be consulted
And that's it really! A day where real price gappers are thin on the ground and it woud seem that success may fall at the hands of McCoy in his 2 races with plnty of opposition and obstacles to overcome!.
FOOTBALL
Spain take on the Yanks who gave me a kick in the knackers the other day when deciding to play football against Egypt.
But I suspect Spain are a little moe reliable that the Pharaohs.
The first USA goal was shocking and should never have been scored. THey will NOT get these chances against the Spanish
1.28 to win in the match odds. Learning from yesterday, you MUST trade out if Spain are lucy enough to score first.
SHORTLIST
I am not comortable with any of these today. HAsty needs market consultation nearer the off. Factotum looks the safest bet today in the hope that the race involves only 4 horses (the 4 under 20/1) I don't like top heavy markets as one of Factotum and Vicario may not place.
We saw in the 500 Brighton yesterday a 4 horse race and 3 places and the fav DID NOT place - these things happen regardless of how good a bet appears on paper
Still 1.2 in the place market hints that the market expects the Champ to continue his find recent form on hotpots.
Trailblazing in the first race is from a red hot yard whose juveniles continue to win . BAced into favouratism, those with glass half full will see 1.78 as an outstanding bet
Thoe with glass half empty will see 1.78 as the maret telling us he is not even guaranteed to place in what looks a tight race.
The betting forecast for Native City's match saw a tight affair, which is not reflected in the live market with a noticeable price gap. A poor run last time out sticks in my mind under CHamp jockey last time out.
Those DAMN YANKS! Are they going to be put to bed this evening? They shouldn't even be in this game! Spain should oblige surely? 1.28 looks a good bet in light of today's sparcity of price gappers.
Ever the glutton for punishment, Federer is priced the same as Murray yesterday, and 1.25 for 3-0 ,same as Murray, but Fed has been here, done that ad doesn't have the pressure of Andy Murray?
As you can see, I'm trying to look for bets here. This should be tradeable again if Federer wins the first set as expected, OR if Fed breaks early.
Any involvement here will require live involvement.
ONE A DAY
Not happy with anything today to be honest.
This is a potential option, covering 3 of the top 4 who are under 20/1 in the 220 Worcester
And watch the 4th win!!
An official no bet day for me today to be honest with you. My shortlist though for possible live involvement woould be 220 Worcester and Factotum at 1.20 just hoping AP McCoy is the difference
Spain must surely beat the lucky Yanks this evening? You think that 1.28 is outstanding.
In a sparce day, Fed 3-0 is 1.25 AND TRADEABLE if he breaks early in the first set
As the Big Brother Geordie presenter says " YOU DECIDE"
NO LIVE CHAT TODAY AND POSSIBLY NO BLOG OR LIVE CHAT TOMORROW AS I AM PREPARING TO TRAVEL BACK TO GUERNSEY.
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