20/6

Sporting fingal, the nailed on one a day came in at 1.15 near the off.
Again yesterday, in reaction to the markets ,I found a solid place only bet
Look at Northern Flyer in the market - odds on ,with previous 9/4 shot drifting. I took this as a sign and got on.

This got me thinking. Perhaps I could find some way of letting you know about these strong bets which are not really one a day selections on the blog, but which arrive during the day.
So, if you look on the blog you will see a live chat facility. Click on the arrow and if I am available, I can update if I see a good place only opportunity. This would have come in handy in Baizically's race yesterday as the money for Forrest Flyer meant a no bet, but how was I to tell you having written it in the blog already? This live chat will help if I can make it work

It's worth a try so we'll see how it goes.

220 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Music Of The Moor, 7/2 Pytheas, 5/1 Lamh Albasser, Leopard Hills, 8/1 Cosmic Orbit, 14/1 Rainsborough, 20/1 Gymbaroo, 25/1 Bollin Rachel, 33/1 Tukitinyasok, 50/1 As Brave As You.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MUSIC OF THE MOOR sets the standard on what he achieved behind three previous winners at Pontefract, the form having been boosted by the first two running well in Listed company since. Pytheas and Cosmic Orbit are the pick of the newcomers and should be monitored closely in the betting.[Steven Boow]

We saw another MArk Johnston 2 year old Crime writer do the business yesterday and as I argued ,when they are fancied they keep coming home. And this may be the case with Pytheas.
The horse is a debutant which is a worry but the money is down and it's 13/8 and strong at the head of the market. Given the superb and consistent recent form of the Johnston yard in these races, this cannot be ignored. 1.36 to place - very risky as it is a debutant
POSITIVES - only 4 under 20/1 signifies the other 2 year olds are not fancied today?
NEgATIVES - 2 year old maiden - 5 debutants. 4 one time outers who could improve considerably for the experience - Music of the Moor's dad is Rock of Gibraltar!


305 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Doctor Fremantle, 3/1 Campanologist, 6/1 Bronze Cannon, 8/1 Dansant, 12/1 Enroller, Tajaaweed, 33/1 Illustrious Blue, Steele Tango, 40/1 Barshiba.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last year's Derby fourth Doctor Fremantle should make a bold bid back at this trip, but the return to 1m4f should also suit CAMPANOLOGIST who won the King Edward VII Stakes over C&D 12 months ago when last tried.[Adrian Cook]

Ascot has been difficult for price gappers this week, naturally because of the competitive racing. Here we have a 9 horse race with 3 at 33/1 or bigger which hopefully will play no part.
The market tells us Dr Fremantle and Campanologist are the ones who should be vying for the win.
Difficult choice though - Ryan Moore v Dettori, and 1 mile 4 furlongs means we must trust the jockeys to ride the race right. 1.35 aND 1.56 the front 2


315 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Cosmopolitan, 4/1 Respite, 5/1 Lyceana, 13/2 Something Perfect, 7/1 Spring Adventure, 15/2 Fanditha, 12/1 Astrodonna, Penzena.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Respite found herself in a rough house when beaten favourite on her handicap debut and might yet prove well handicapped but the year older COSMOPOLITAN (nap) must go close off 84 if she's to justify her Falmouth Stakes entry.[Paul Johnson]

8 down to 6 and hopefully 3 places still on Betfair. Respite is out who was the nearest rival to Cosmopolitain. Should make it easier for him to place in what is a 50/50 race - 6 horses and 3 places 1.33 to place in a 50/50 race is very enticing but does make one a little wary- bit of a big price for a 50/50 shot. I thought a horse napped by Spotlight would be shorter
A very tight market would be the reason. Outsider is only 12/1.

345 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 J J The Jet Plane, 3/1 Sacred Kingdom, 7/1 Ialysos, 8/1 King´s Apostle, 12/1 Kingsgate Native, 16/1 Bushranger, 20/1 Cannonball, Lesson In Humility, 25/1 Diabolical, 33/1 Art Connoisseur, Regal Parade, Strike The Deal, 40/1 Duff, 66/1 Intrepid Jack,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A truly international field. Scenic Blast showed up the limitations of the home defence in the King's Stand and J J THE JET PLANE and Sacred Kingdom set a high standard for them to surpass here. Preference is for the younger South African horse who tuned up in impressive style at Windsor and is unbeaten in turf sprints.[Adrian Cook]

A one a day bet on his last run, albeit in only a 6 runner event, J J is back as favourite but in a more competitive field. 1.66 to place indicates the competitive nature of this race

445 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sam´s Secret, 7/4 Elna Bright, 3/1 Royal Dignitary, 10/1 Dabbers Ridge, 20/1 Wiseman´s Diamond, 33/1 Picture Frame, 50/1 Royal Applord, 100/1 Apres Ski, Borodinsky, Carrazara, Danish Art, Tump Mac.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Royal Dignitary and Elna Bright are dangerous at this level but SAM'S SECRET must have a chance of flooring them both on these terms.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 horses under 20/1 should be the ones to concentrate on, but this is a claimer. 1.49, 1.49 and 1.64 the front 3 to place- very enticing odds indeed here in what should be, if the market is accurate, a 3 horse race (illiquid market at present - odds may rise)

550 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 First Spirit, 7/2 Diktalina, 8/1 Dulce Domum, 10/1 Gaelic Rose, Timbaa, 12/1 Baileys Red, 16/1 Captain Flack, Diktaram, 20/1 Top Tinker, 50/1 Glan Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FIRST SPIRIT stands out in current form and, with conditions ideal, it will be disappointing if she's not up to winning this.[Ben Osborne]

More good recent performers have been horses dropped to selling and claiming company who seem to have found their competitive level. First spirit is a case in point. 3rd then 1st in selling and claiming company after finding handicaps difficult, may be worth the risk here 1.2 to place
POSITIVES - proven ability in this grade
NEGATIVES - sellers and claimers not reknowned for horses keeping consistent long term form

555 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Igoyougo, 4/1 Billy Beetroot, 5/1 Yughanni, 7/1 Iachimo, 10/1 Rossett Rose, 12/1 Future Gem, 14/1 Excitable, Unbelievable Jeff, 16/1 Red Cell, 20/1 Dancing Wave, Port Ronan, 25/1 Brideview, 33/1 Chenin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: YUGHANNI did well to finish so close at Leicester last time after pulling way too hard and she's worth a try over the minimum trip given her desire to get on with it. Billy Beetroot shouldn't be far away if maintaining his progress for a new stable.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

My old mate Billy Beetroot returns having hit winning form after some excellent placed runs. Not a price gapper though but might just place again ,showing progressive form? 2.04 to place

835 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Destination, 5/2 Captain Ellis, Light Sleeper, 8/1 Perez Prado, 16/1 Elusive Muse, 25/1 Espero, Picturethatmoment, 200/1 Becky Quick.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market is sure to be revealing here with the four with the best form claims coming back from an absence. Royal Destination and Light Sleeper could easily be good enough, but CAPTAIN ELLIS sets a fair standard with an official rating of 85 and is the nominal selection.[Graeme North]

A very interesting market. The front 3 are all around 2/1 with next best at 20/1. Must involve these 3 and 8 runenrs down to 7 means 3 places still on Betfair. One or 2, (or all 3) of these will place, but which one? Difficult to chose with race not off til 835pm 1.22, 1.23, 1.17 the front 3 to place. again this is enticing given the market indicates it's between these 3

FOOTBALL
Laying New Zealand at 8.8 is the same as a 1.12 bet and with Iraq parking the bus (remember Spain could only score 1) this must be a great bet surely?
Like Frederikstad, perhaps a sojourn into the half time/full time market could pay off? These 2 teams couldn't score in 2 brothels so covering draw/draw may be an idea
Under 3.5 goals is 1.3 which is very enticing. Under 4.5 goals is 1.11 which is safer, but we know NZ cannot defend BUT Iraq are hardly overflowing with goalscoring potential.

South Africa v Spain is a dead rubber for the Spanish. Expect changes to the squad. South Africa looked good last game ,but then my Sunday league team would look like Pele's Brazil against the Kiwis.
Over 1.5 goals is 1.4 which is huge relative to the market and speaks volumes about the lack of incentive for the already qualified Spaniards.

The Lions take on South Africa at 2pm and are 1.47 for victory in a game which is tradeable. I think SA will lead during the match, ergo their price will drop surely allowing for a good trade?

SHORTLIST
220 REDCAR
purely on recent trainer performance Pytheas at 1.36 may be worth a risk but it must be remembered the horse is a debutant in a maiden full of potential imporvers. Still only 4 under 20/1 and if these bigger prices run as their odds suggest, then he has a good chance of placing.

305 ASCOT
only 4 under 12/1, 3 horses 25/1 or bigger -market suggests Dr Fremantle and campanologist. The latter is the one for money though. Dr fremantle's Derby 4th though stands out for me

315 NMKT
cosmopolitan at 1.33 shold be worth chancing in a 50/50 race with 2nd fav out , but a tight race. BUT napped by Spotlight and nearest rival out

835 HAYDOCK You see why I'm interested in this race with it looking a simple 3 horse race here, but I cannot really make a decision this early as a lot can happen in the intervening period. Iraq v New zealand 1.3 for under 3.5 goals is excellent in my view. A team who cannot score against a tight defensive unit who I doubt could score 3 or more goals




ONE A DAY
I think I will chance the 50/50 race today -the 315 Newmarket. Cosmopolitan at 1.3 to place in a 6 runner race with 3 places. Concern here is that this is a tight race but hope rests on SPotlight's napping of the horse. I hope he is competitive in this competitive handicap and does not find 3 horses to beat him.
1.3 seems a tad big to me instinctually given the situation and that is a niggle - am I missing something?
Elsewhere, well the Iraq game is certainly very enticing. under 3.5 goals at 1.3 looks standout as does the halftime/fulltime dutch.
I will try the live chat today just as an experiement and if there's a great place only bet before 315 I'll type it in