Tuesday, 9 June 2009

9/6



2 bets yesterday, one on Angelina Ballerina and the other was HAlf Time England at 1.35 which was tradeable. HAlf time/ Full time is NOT tradeable, hence the £25 green screen after England scored very early.
I must admit I also backed England "next goal" and dutched England Half time /full time on England/England and Draw /England.
What you want to see from a 1.1 shot was shown yesterday. 7 goals in total and 3 goals at half time and no concerns whatsoever.

There are multiple opportunities in the football tomorrow so if there's nothing warranting a bet today, then we can double up tomorrow.

245 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Elna Bright, 9/2 Yellow Printer, 6/1 Rioliina, 8/1 Jake The Snake, 10/1 Peace Concluded, 14/1 Castano, Manchestermaverick, 16/1 Takitwo, 25/1 Fun In The Sun, 66/1 Frosty´s Gift, Kilmeena Dream, Miracle Baby, Talamahana, Zaftil,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elna Bright is the obvious starting point here and he will find this much easier than racing off a mark in the 90s in handicaps. He has to be feared, but at the likely prices it may be worth chancing PEACE CONCLUDED now she drops back to a trip that should prove more suitable.[Paul Smith]

Price gapper but in a claimer. Only 4 under 12/1 should hopefully be the ones to concentrate on.

355 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Aromatic, 9/2 Cascata, 13/2 Sampi, 8/1 Cill Rialaig, Maria Di Scozia, 12/1 Heritage Coast, Tinshu, 16/1 Spell Caster, Zaaqya, 25/1 Brooksby, Shanzu, 33/1 Accede.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these are progressive and/or unexposed, none more so than AROMATIC (nap) who is well regarded enough to still hold an entry in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, has knuckled down well to win both her races this year and seems likely to prove better than her current rating of 83. Cascata is next on the list

Price gapper here but a class 4 0-85 handicap rather than a class 5 and class 6.

445 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Luc Jordan, 100/30 Proud Times, 7/2 Kammaan, 7/1 Cipher, 8/1 Quiquillo, 16/1 Dalmunzie, 20/1 George Adamson, Skybob, 33/1 Hopeful Lady, 50/1 Benitez Bond, Tump Mac, 66/1 Elusive Style, Noche De Reyes, Wrecker´s Moon,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LUC JORDAN and Proud Times have solid form claims and the former is preferred. Kammaan could be reinvigorated by a step up in trip and switch back to turf. [David Moon]

Fav has placed twice (2nd) and only 5 horses under 25/1 so this should be easier to Luc Jordan. BUT, as ever, a maiden

515 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ethics Girl, 11/2 The Last Alzao, 13/2 Feeling Stylish, 7/1 Miss Gibboa, 9/1 Nicky Nutjob, 12/1 Acclaim To Fame, 14/1 Laminka, 16/1 Amazing Blue Sky, Hawkleaf Flier, 20/1 Antipodean, Pattern Mark, 25/1 Flynn´s Island, 33/1 Rioja Ruby, 40/1 Ballade De La Mer,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ETHICS GIRL (nap) finished miles clear of the rest when just picked off in a fillies handicap at Carlisle last week and should be tough to catch off the same mark here. The Last Alzao steps up in distance for a yard which has won this three times in the last seven years and rates the main danger, while Feeling Stylish is another possible improver upped in trip. [David Moon]

Price gapper in a class 6 0-55 handicap but the ideal is the Cwn Rhondda type price gap. Only 15 runners so just 3 places .

645 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Itsthursdayalready, 4/1 Reddy To Star, 11/2 Deal, 7/1 Il Forno, 8/1 Wigan Lane, 14/1 Bazsharani, Bitter Honey, 16/1 Almuntaser, 20/1 Cheshire Lady, 33/1 Arctic Destiny, Psychopathicsandra, 100/1 Ariel Bender.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Subsequent Group 2 winner Madam Trop Vite overcame an unfavourable draw here a year ago but in the preceding 12 years the winner of this race had been drawn five or lower. A favourable stall is likely to be a key factor again and if ITSTHURSDAYALREADY gets away well he is likely to prove hard to beat. The likes of Reddy To Star and Il Forno, who are arguably his chief rivals on form, have fared less well in the draw

Chester is reknowned for the draw bias, as Spotlight rightly points out. Possible " hard to beat" selection but a maiden race with 3 debutants and 3 one time outers open to improvement. Would not be top of my list today

700 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sadler´s Star, 7/2 Cootehill, Duty Free, 7/1 Papuan Prince, 20/1 Galley Slave, 25/1 Jago, 40/1 Breeze Way, 66/1 Ladette To Lady, The Graig, 100/1 Aviemore.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sadler's Star has the ability to take this but his defeat here two months ago might not have been all down to the trip. Duty Free has claims but the consistent handicap form of COOTEHILL might be rewarded with success back in novice comapny.[Jonathan Neesom]

Only 4 horses under 20/1 and amongst those 4 we have the elite jockeys Robert Thornton, A P McCoy, Richard Johnson and Paddy Brennan. These 4 can certainly be relied upon.

815 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Rosbay, 4/1 I´m In The Pink, 9/2 Jabal Tariq, 5/1 Heroes, 15/2 Safari Journey, Special Reserve, 10/1 Full Speed, 11/1 Charlie Tokyo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Philip Hobbs does well with his handful of Flat runners and SAFARI JOURNEY, who has enjoyed success round sharp jumps tracks and scored over this trip in France last year, could be interesting. It's hard to rule out any of his rivals with confidence and it wouldn't be a shock if Jabal Tariq went close under a cunning tactical ride from the front. [Paul Johnson]

5 runners here


still 3 places. For our bet to win we have to ensure our horse does NOT get beaten by 3 horses in a 5 horse race. This looks a really tight race though as you can see and the ideal is really to wait until the live market shows up, perhaps, a favoured horse by the punters.




830 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mizen Raven, 6/1 Lodgician, 7/1 Mohawk Star, 10/1 Seeyaaj, 12/1 Big Rob, Double Parked, Shinnecock Bay, 14/1 Daurica, Deep Reflection, Mcqueen, 16/1 Cave Of The Giant, First Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If the tongue-tie proves to be the key to Lodgician, he could be a danger to all but MIZEN RAVEN (nap) has plenty going for him and should be able to get his head in front this time, after a frustrating run of seconds. [Chris Wilson]

"likely to be hard to beat" this Mizen Raven who has come 2nd in his last 4 chases. This is a hurdle race and Richard Johnson is on board. The outsider at only 14/1 does sound a note of caution

900 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Roses, 9/4 Rustic Road, 8/1 Emmaslegend, 11/1 Fine Call, 14/1 Basford Wayfarer, Dirty Deal, 16/1 Auntie Craik, Dana Time, 20/1 Along Came Rosie, 25/1 Misty Kit, 28/1 Just Maggie, Searree, 33/1 Dancing Daffodil, Lunan Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Roses is unbeaten in three starts and has to command a great deal of respect in an ordinary-looking bumper. However, she does have to concede a good chunk of weight to likely-looking newcomer RUSTIC ROAD, who has strong paper credentials and, as such, is given marginal preference. [Mel Cullinan]

A 2 horse race, BUT a bumper so the market is key

FOOTBALL
I think when we get football matches with minnows versus established performers these should take precedent over any place only bet
17:00 Azerbaijan vs Spain 14/1 6/1 1/6

This is a friendly, preference would be for this game to mean something - a warm up to the Confederations Cup in South Africa. A strong Spanish side should put this lot to bed, BUT as you have seen in their 2 recent matches, the home team are a good defensive unit. The correct score 2 market is up again which was a good indicator in yesterday's cricket score against Azerbaijan under 21's. Spain 1.16 to win, 1.47 to be winning at half time , 1.18 over 1.5 goals.

18:30 Poland U21 vs Liechtenstein U21 1/33 9/1 20/1

Under 21's again but 1/33 means only one thing (in the ideal world!) - goals
1.14 half time/full time . 1.06 straight win. One problem with this game is the lack of a properly formed market in the total goals market. Hopefully the markets ill strengthen with added interest from betfairians

19:00 Faroe Islands U21 vs Russia U21 12/1 7/1 1/12

1/12 indicates a 2 or 3 goal win for the Russians 1.12 the win, 1.4 half time/full time. This is an under 21 Euro Championship game so means something
Multiples are an option of course too, but then it's not really "one a day" is it? We need to rely on 5 teams rather than one team.

But it is rare that you get such very very short odds together on one day and they should prevail easily. BUT it is under 21's BUT these are the minnows here.

IT'S ONLY 1120am. FIRST RACE IS ON AT 140 PM SO I WILL UPDATE 1245PM in the hope there will be some more non runners and market movers in the horse racing

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