All blog choices obliged yesterday I believe. One of those days eh?
I just had that feeling yesterday and went with a few of the shortlisted selections. Of course this is not the one a day philosophy. You will also see that I dutched 2 horses in a 4 runner race at Naas. Again a flexible approach to come up with a return equivalent to about 1.20. All of the big boys performed yesterday including JJ the Jet plane
215 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Coloursoftheglen, 11/4 Singeur, 3/1 Going French, 11/2 Miss Lesley, 10/1 Turf Time, 25/1 Beach Boy, 33/1 Brave Ambition, Coralamber, Santas Pal, Tarrants Way, 40/1 Amoureuse, Another Grand,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COLOURSOFTHEGLEN showed plenty at Haydock and gets the vote ahead of Going French and Singeur, the two other runners who came second on their only starts to date, and the Windsor third Miss Lesley.[RA] |
Fav is a non runner, and Singeur has benefitted, being well backed, but as I keep repeating, another one time out 2 year old in a maiden! 1.37 to place
430 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hajar, 2/1 Veroon, 3/1 Cabernet Sauvignon, 8/1 Brockfield, 33/1 Nassau Beach.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest maiden with Veroon having the highest BHA rating of 73 of the trio that have run. Newcomer HAJAR, out of a mare who made a successful debut as a 3yo, will not have to be anything special to take this.[AC]
Remember the last one of these we got involved in, the horse chosen did not place but 2 of the top 3 did. This is always the concern in potential 3 horse races where the market leaders are quite tight pricewise
A maiden here, Veroon has the experience which could tip things in his favour? Hajar is close in the market but a debutant. Prices are similar to that 2 places (likely) 3 runner event on Sunday - these are risky bets and we hope the fav OR our choice places
530 LISTOWEL
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOBBYSCOT may be able to put his experience to good use. The Alhaarth colt made the third appearance of his career at Leopardstown last week and confirmed the promise of his previous start at Gowran by making a lot of the running on his way to taking third place behind the Aidan O'Brien-trained Alfred Nobel.\n |
Fav a non runner may open things up for 2nd fav? Main rival out!Originally 4 hores under 14/1 - the ones to concentrate on? 1.21 to place for the fav BUT an illiquid market
530 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Francis Walsingham, 7/2 Diamond Blade, 5/1 Aegean King, 6/1 Rascal In The Mix, 12/1 Carragold, 14/1 Yourgolftravel Com, 33/1 Choree, 50/1 Exceed Elegance, Gurtavallig.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak maiden and a clear chance for FRANCIS WALSINGHAM, who was bought for 78,000gns after a promising 2yo debut and shapes as though he will be a sprinter, to get off the mark
Original 9 runners down to 6 and if 3 places on Betfair then this will be interesting as a 50/50 race. I suspect Francis's price is likely to be short
2 horses at 33/1 or bigger. A pure probability race. As you can see if you click on the screenshot, Betfair will pay out 3 places and the amrket is illiquid a the moment.
600 LISTOWEL
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KARKARI has a good opportunity to open his account at the third attempt. Cheekpieces are employed for the first time on the John Oxx-trained gelding who kicked off his career with a third placing behind market-principals Handsome Batchelor and Viceroy Of India over this trip at Gowran. He seemed to run to a similar level of form when chasing home the long-priced French Irish over 7f at the same venue.\n |
Only 2 under 10/1 -te one to concentrate on? 1.12 to place
635 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Buachaill On Eirne, 5/2 Little Lu, 3/1 Schelm, 15/2 Woody Valentine, 14/1 Hello Nod, 16/1 Karmadice, 40/1 What Happened, 50/1 Jalamid, Uptown Lad, 100/1 Madge.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting opener and much will depend on how a couple of decent hurdlers take to this discipline. BUACHAILL ON EIRNE should manage it and hails from a stable in good form, so is given the vote ahead of fellow newcomer Schelm and Little Lu.[JN] |
Only 6 horses under 100/1 -the ones to concentrate on. 1.36 to place in an illiquid market
735 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Nordwind, 10/1 Weetfromthechaff, 12/1 Roman History, Word Of Warning, 16/1 Vice Admiral, 25/1 Bed Fellow, Musca.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NORDWIND is not really the sort you want to be backing at skinny odds but he looked much more enthusiastic at Wetherby last month and is a long way ahead of his rivals.[JN] |
Default selection for the day if I can't find anything else?
A tricky customer this one ,and only 2 places of course 1.12 to place
800 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Alpine Glade, 5/1 Sherchanceit, 13/2 Dani´s Girl, 8/1 Luca Brasi, 14/1 Grangeclare Gold, 20/1 Crafty Girl, Dizzy Rascal, Good Thyne Diva, 25/1 Glenda King, Kayfour.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALPINE GLADE will be hard to beat if showing no ill-effects from her run behind Fingers in a 1m4f maiden at Tramore on Saturday. Interestingly in the context of the pattern of two quick runs, she ran on successive days at the May meeting at Killarney, finishing a creditable fourth to See U Bob in a competitive handicap hurdle and third to Daasij in a 1m6f event on the Flat. Her second placing behind Shirley Casper in a 2m4f Grade 3 event at Fairyhouse represents much the most convincing piece of individual form on display here.\n |
"hard to beat" selection here but remember that Ireland is the graveyard of the odds n shot. So can we make a case? 1.07 to place but very very illiquid market and this will change
835 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Kells Castle, 4/1 Finbin, 7/1 Sam Cruise, 15/2 Nicozetto, 8/1 Palmers Peak, 10/1 Polar Gale, 14/1 Esme Rides A Gaine, Hows Trix, 16/1 Tully Hill, 20/1 Big Bone, 25/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 33/1 Celtic Flow, 50/1 Turbulent Flight.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quite a few of these appeal and there is plenty of recent form to chew over. Finbin is tempting back over fences with the tongue-strap on but KELLS CASTLE has run well in stronger races than this and can gain his reward.[JN] |
Price gapper but a 3 mile 3 furlong handicap chase 1.57 to place
FOOTBALL
| 18:00 | Turkey vs Azerbaijan | 1/6 |
UAE v Germany 1.26 for Germany, but they didn't seem to be ared against China in another friendly recently
| 19:45 | Bohemians vs Galway | 1/3 |
Boh's are the Man Utd of the Eircom league but Irish football is a poor standard to be honest and , although they should win well, you cannot rely on teams being ultra consistent
SHORTLIST
530 RIPON - looks like a great 50/50 race. Will Francis Walsingham be beaten by 3 of the 6 horses?
735 SEDGEFIELD - Nordwind - similalry priced to the above bet, BUT has obstacles to overcome and only 2 places
FOOTBALL. Wealth warning for the friendlies. Any involvement by me will be decided nearer the off after I have made sure I have seen the team news of the Turks or Zee Germans.
ONE A DAY
Must be the 530 Ripon for me with Francis Walsingham an experienced maiden who hopefully will not get beaten by 3 of the 6 horses in this race (click on the screenshot and you'll see some outsiders)
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